Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

Deep Ethology, Animal Rights, and the Great Ape/Animal Project: Resisting Speciesism and Expanding the Community of Equals

In this essay I argue that the evolutionary and comparative study of nonhuman animal (hereafter animal) cognition in a wide range of taxa by cognitive ethologists can readily inform discussions about animal protection and animal rights. However, while it is clear that there is a link between animal cognitive abilities and animal pain and suffering, I agree with Jeremy Bentham who claimed long ago the real question does not deal with whether individuals can think or reason but rather with whether or not individuals can suffer. One of my major goals will be to make the case that the time has come to expand. The Great Ape Project (GAP) to The Great Ape/Animal Project (GA/AP) and to take seriously the moral status and rights of all animals by presupposing that all individuals should be admitted into the Community of Equals. I also argue that individuals count and that it is essential to avoid being speciesist cognitivists; it really doesn't matter whether ‘dogs ape’ or whether ‘apes dog’ when taking into account the worlds of different individual animals. Narrow-minded primatocentrism and speciesism must be resisted in our studies of animal cognition and animal protection and rights. Line-drawing into ‘lower’ and ‘higher’ species is a misleading speciesist practice that should be vigorously resisted because not only is line-drawing bad biology but also because it can have disastrous consequences for how animals are viewed and treated. Speciesist line-drawing also ignores within species individual differences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ecological Monitoring for Assessing the State of the Nearshore and Open Waters of the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement stipulates that the Governments of Canada and the United States are responsible for restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem. Due to varying mandates and areas of expertise, monitoring to assess progress towards this objective is conducted by a multitude of Canadian and U.S. federal and provincial/state agencies, in cooperation with academia and regional authorities. This paper highlights selected long-term monitoring programs and discusses a number of documented ecological changes that indicate the present state of the open and nearshore waters of the Great Lakes.     

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Organochlorine Contamination and Bill Deformities in Double-Crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax Auritus) from the Canadian Great Lakes

The levels of organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in the eggs of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) from the Canadian Great Lakes, Lake Nipigon and Lake-of-the-Woods were monitored between 1970 and 1995. PCBs and p,p-DDE were present at the highest concentrations. Significant declines in OC concentrations on the Great Lakes were observed over this period for Lake Ontario, Lake Superior, Georgian Bay and North Channel but not Lake Erie where levels remained relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the greatest OC levels were generally observed in cormorant eggs from nesting sites in Georgian Bay and North Channel of Lake Huron. Between 1984 and 1995 mirex and PCB levels were consistently highest in samples from Lakes Ontario and Erie, respectively. Similar levels of PCDDs and PCDFs were observed from all regions of the Canadian Great Lakes in 1989. In general, OC levels in cormorant eggs between 1984-95 were ranked as follows: Lake Erie>Lake Ontario Lake Superior>Lake Huron. In 1995, eggshell thickness in Canadian Great Lakes cormorants, ranged from 0.423 to 0.440 mm and was on average only 2.3% thinner than pre-DDT era values. Between 1988 and 1996, 31 cormorant chicks with bill defects were observed at 16 different colonies (21% of all colonies surveyed) in Lakes Ontario and Superior, Georgian Bay and North Channel, and the main body of Lake Huron. No bill deformities were observed at reference sites in northwestern Ontario (Lake Nipigon and Lake-of-the-Woods). For the period 1988-96, the prevalence of bill defects in cormorant chicks (0.0 to 2.8/10,000 chicks) did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) among most regions in the Canadian Great Lakes. Georgian Bay was the only region to show a significant decrease in the prevalence of bill defects between the periods 1979-87 and 1988-95.     

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the New York State Canal and Hudson River Systems and the Great Lakes Basin: An Economic and Environmental Assessment

A total of 154 aquatic alien species have invaded the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and a total of 162 aquatic species have invaded the Great Lakes Basin. Some of these invasive species are causing significant damage and control costs in both aquatic ecosystems. In the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems, the nonindigenous species are causing an estimated 500 million dollars in economic losses each year. The economic and environmental situation in the Great Lakes Basin is far more serious from nonindigenous species, with losses estimated to be about 5.7 billion dollars per year. Commercial and sport fishing suffer the most from the biological invasions, with about 400 million dollars in losses reported for the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and 4.5 billion dollars in losses reported for the Great Lakes Basin.     

INTERREGIONAL COMPARISON OF ALLUVIAL STREAM CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY: GREAT PLAINS VERSUS CENTRAL LOWLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channel development is a complicated process involving many factors. A major goal of research in fluvial geomorphology is to develop an understanding of the relations between channel form, water discharge, and sediment discharge characteristics. The concept of thresholds has been introduced as an element in fluvial processes, with the implication that the factors involved in a process might change in some way as threshold boundaries are passed. This study is focused on the extent to which a particular regional boundary represents a threshold in the process of stream channel development. Twenty-four alluvial stream channels from the Great Plains region and 24 from the Central Lowlands region are compared with regard to the distributional form, central tendency and dispersion characteristics, and correlation structure of ten variables, including indicators of discharge, channel sediment, and channel morphology. The results suggest that these aspects of the data are very similar between the regions, except for certain differences in central tendency characteristics, which are assumed to reflect underlying differences between the regions in geology and climate. In general, the results support the idea that this regional boundary is not an effective threshold with respect to the stream channel development process, and that, therefore, stream channels develop in these environmentally distinct regions by way of a similar process.     

TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON GREAT LAKES WATER BALANCE STUDIES1

ABSTRACT. Beginning of month water temperature profiles are estimated for each lake. These water temperature profiles along with surface water temperatures are used to determine the effects of thermal expansion and contraction of water on the net basin supply values obtained from water balance studies using end of month lake levels. It is demonstrated that net basin supply values (equivalent to precipitation on the lake minus the evaporation from the lake plus the runoff into the lake) obtained from water balance studies without accounting for the thermal expansion and contraction of water may be in error by as much as 100 percent during some months for each lake.     

Organic contamination in the Great Wall bay,Antarctica in austral summer

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Prioritising catchment management projects to improve marine water quality

Runoff from human land-uses is one of the most significant threats to some coastal marine environments. Initiatives to reduce that runoff usually set runoff reduction targets but do not give guidance on how to prioritize the different options that exist to achieve them. This paper demonstrates an easy to interpret economic framework to prioritise investment for conservation projects that aim to reduce pollution of marine ecosystems caused by runoff from agricultural land-uses. We demonstrate how to apply this framework using data on project cost, benefit and feasibility with a subset of projects that have been funded to reduce runoff from subcatchments adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef. Our analysis provides a graphical overview of the cost-effectiveness of the investment options, enables transparent planning for different budgets, assesses the existence of trends in the cost-effectiveness of different categories, and can test if the results are robust under uncertainty in one or more of the parameters. The framework provided solutions that were up to 4 times more efficient than when omitting information on cost or benefit. The presented framework can be used as a benchmark for evaluating results from a range of prioritisation processes against the best possible conservation outcomes.     

Reproductive strategy and singing activity: blue tit and great tit compared

The costs and benefits of bird song are likely to vary among species, and different singing patterns may reflect differences in reproductive strategies. We compared temporal patterns of singing activity in two songbird species, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the great tit (Parus major). The two species live side by side year round, and they have similar breeding ecology and similar rates of extra-pair paternity. However, they differ in two aspects of reproductive strategy that may have an influence on song output: blue tits are facultatively polygynous and have a fairly short breeding season with almost no second broods, whereas great tits are socially monogamous but more commonly raise second broods. We found that great tit males continued singing at high levels during the egg-laying and incubation periods, while monogamously paired blue tit males strongly reduced singing activity after the first days of egg-laying by their female. Since males of both species sang much more intensely shortly before sunrise than after sunrise, at midday or in the evening, this difference was most conspicuous at dawn. No differences in singing activity were found within species when testing for male age. We suggest that in contrast to blue tits, great tit males continued singing after egg-laying to defend the territory and to encourage the female for a possible second brood.