EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

多媒体辅助英美概况教学的构想与实施

用传统方法讲授英美概况很难达到良好的教学效果。本文论述了用多媒体技术改善教学的思路,并以实例介绍了具体方法,指出了在教学实践中需要注意的问题,同时对教学效果进行了评价。     

Zinc and lead sequestration in an impacted wetland system

The fate and bioavailability of pollutant metals is important to the long-term health of freshwater wetland systems, particularly in areas with elevated background levels of trace metals. Precipitation of some authigenic mineral phases in wetland sediments can potentially limit metal bioavailability through sequestration in low-solubility compounds, such as metal sulfides. Zinc and Pb concentrations were analyzed in water, plant and sediment samples taken from a metal-contaminated wetland in Chicago, IL, USA in order to assess metal fate and bioavailability, while X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) studies were conducted to determine zinc speciation in the wetland sediments. The results showed sequestration of metal into the pond sediments, most likely in iron precipitate phases. In surface sediments, re-release of Zn and Pb into pore waters was correlated with microbial iron reduction, while the presence of sulfide in anoxic pore waters corresponded to decreased dissolved concentrations of both elements. Analysis of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data confirmed that sulfide compounds dominated zinc speciation throughout the sediment. Uptake of trace metals in Phragmites plants was limited primarily to plant roots, while concentrations of both Pb and Zn in aquatic vegetation were significantly elevated, representing a potential bioaccumulation hazard.     

Environmentally stratified sampling design for the development of Great Lakes environmental indicators

Understanding the relationship between human disturbance and ecological response is essential to the process of indicator development. For large-scale observational studies, sites should be selected across gradients of anthropogenic stress, but such gradients are often unknown for a population of sites prior to site selection. Stress data available from public sources can be used in a geographic information system (GIS) to partially characterize environmental conditions for large geographic areas without visiting the sites. We divided the U.S. Great Lakes coastal region into 762 units consisting of a shoreline reach and drainage-shed and then summarized over 200 environmental variables in seven categories for the units using a GIS. Redundancy within the categories of environmental variables was reduced using principal components analysis. Environmental strata were generated from cluster analysis using principal component scores as input. To protect against site selection bias, sites were selected in random order from clusters. The site selection process allowed us to exclude sites that were inaccessible and was shown to successfully distribute sites across the range of environmental variation in our GIS data. This design has broad applicability when the goal is to develop ecological indicators using observational data from large-scale surveys.     

Restoring the Great Basin Desert, U.S.A.: Integrating Science, Management, and People

The Great Basin Desert lies between the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. Nearly 60% of the area’s deserts and mountains (roughly 30 million ha) are managed by the U. S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management. This area is characterized by low annual precipitation, diverse desert plant communities, and local economies that depend on the products (livestock grazing, recreation, mining, etc.) produced by these lands. The ecological and economic stability of the Great Basin is increasingly at risk due to the expansion of fire-prone invasive species and increase in wildfires. To stem this loss of productivity and diversity in the Great Basin, the BLM initiated the “Great Basin Restoration Initiative” in 1999 after nearly 0.7 million ha of the Great Basin burned in wildfires. The objective of the Great Basin Restoration Initiative is to restore plant community diversity and structure by improving resiliency to disturbance and resistance to invasive species over the long-term. To accomplish this objective, a strategic plan has been developed that emphasizes local participation and reliance on appropriate science to ensure that restoration is accomplished in an economical and ecologically appropriate manner. If restoration in the Great Basin is not successful, desertification and the associated loss of economic stability and ecological integrity will continue to threaten the sustainability of natural resources and people in the Great Basin.     

Of Small Streams and Great Lakes: Integrating Tributaries to Understand the Ecology and Biogeochemistry of Lake Superior

Lake Superior receives inputs from approximately 2,800 tributaries that provide nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the nearshore zone of this oligotrophic lake. Here, we review the magnitude and timing of tributary export and plume formation in Lake Superior, how these patterns and interactions may shift with global change, and how emerging technologies can be used to better characterize tributary–lake linkages. Peak tributary export occurs during snowmelt‐driven spring freshets, with additional pulses during rain‐driven storms. Instream processing and transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be rapid but varies seasonally in magnitude. Tributary plumes with elevated DOC concentration, higher turbidity, and distinct DOM character can be detected in the nearshore during times of high runoff, but plumes can be quickly transported and diluted by in‐lake currents and mixing. Understanding the variability in size and load of these tributary plumes, how they are transported within the lake, and how long they persist may be best addressed with environmental sensors and remote sensing using autonomous and unmanned vehicles. The connections between Lake Superior and its tributaries are vulnerable to climate change, and understanding and predicting future changes to these valuable freshwater resources will require a nuanced and detailed consideration of tributary inputs and interactions in time and space.     

Convergence of stakeholders’ environmental threat perceptions following mass coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef

Managing human use of ecosystems in an era of rapid environmental change requires an understanding of diverse stakeholders’ behaviors and perceptions to enable effective prioritization of actions to mitigate multiple threats. Specifically, research examining how threat perceptions are shared or diverge among stakeholder groups and how these can evolve through time is increasingly important. We investigated environmental threat perceptions related to Australia's Great Barrier Reef and explored their associations before and after consecutive years of mass coral bleaching. We used data from surveys of commercial fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents (n = 5254) conducted in 2013 and 2017. Threats perceived as most serious differed substantially among groups before bleaching but were strongly aligned after bleaching. Climate change became the most frequently reported threat by all stakeholder groups following the coral bleaching events, and perceptions of fishing and poor water quality as threats also ranked high. Within each of the 3 stakeholder groups, fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents, the prioritization of these 3 threats tended to diverge in 2013, but convergence occurred after bleaching. These results indicate an emergence of areas of agreement both within and across stakeholder groups. Changes in perceptions were likely influenced by high-profile environmental-disturbance events and media representations of threats. Our results provide insights into the plasticity of environmental-threat perceptions and highlight how their convergence in response to major events may create new opportunities for strategic public engagement and increasing support for management.     

Translating mitigation measures proposed in environmental impact statements into planning conditions: Promises and practices by multinational platinum mining firms along the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is identified as an important instrument for facilitating environmental protection and sustainable development. However, since its emergence there has been a growing interest in examining its translation from theory into practice. This paper reviews the translation of mitigation measures proposed in environmental impact statements (EISs) into planning conditions at two platinum mining and processing projects along the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe. By comparing mitigation measures proposed in EISs and those included in environmental management plans (EMPs), examining views of environmental managers and local residents, as well as field observations the mitigation implementation status is verified and evaluated. Results show that 52% of mitigation measures proposed in EISs and mostly procedural are translated into planning conditions. Residents near the platinum processing plant were not satisfied with the mitigation of sulphur dioxide, dust and noise impacts on their health. The need to incorporate and enforce substantive mitigation measures in EISs and planning conditions is recommended for the future.     

New energy policy and low-carbon society in Japan after the Great East Japan Earthquake

The Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 devastated the eastern region of Japan.Due to the resulting nuclear accident,Japanese Cabinet decided to revise its energy policies.The Energy and Environment Council in National Policy Unit published options on the nation’s scenarios for energy and economy in 2030.We estimated the economic impacts of the options to national economy and households in 2030.Finally,we clarified significant factors to establish a secure,affluent and low-carbon society based on the energy scenarios.