基于模糊综合评价法的水质指标分类

模糊综合评价结果与实际污染情况相吻合,能客观地反映多因子共同作用下的地面水环境质量状况,这为制定水环境宏观决策提供了必要的科学参考.     

秦岭自然保护区群保护成本计量研究

秦岭自然保护区群在我国生物多样性保护方面发挥了重要作用,学术界一直缺乏保护成本计量的研究。本研究在界定秦岭自然保护区群成本的概念及分析其内涵的基础上,综合运用专家咨询法及文献参考方法,建立了秦岭自然保护区群保护成本计量指标体系,利用市场价值法、等效替代法以及机会成本法等方法,对秦岭自然保护区群保护生物多样性的投入进行了成本计量及分析。结果表明:秦岭自然保护区群在保护生物多样性投入方面,总货币量约29.72亿元人民币,其中直接保护成本为2.59亿元;间接保护成本为2.00亿元;与周边区域密切相关的机会成本为25.13亿元。其中,机会成本的计量模型多样化,在学术界存在较多争议,但是,最终每种模型都能反映出机会成本的内涵的货币量,可以表达出我国政府为建立秦岭自然保护区群而付出的无形代价。     

Group size and relative competitive ability: geometric progressions as a conceptual tool

Contrary to the assumptions of many previous theoretical models, group size has recently been shown in experiments to have an effect on the relative (as well as absolute) competitive abilities of group members. Here we introduce a novel and effective mathematical tool for describing how relative competitive ability will change for any two specified individuals within a group as group size changes. We show that there is no simple general rule for describing how relative competitive ability will change with group size. A subsequent empirical test of the model helps to illustrate that very specific knowledge of the system under study is needed in order to produce robust predictions. Received: 23 December 1998 / Received in revised form: 26 July 1999 / Accepted: 2 October 1999     

Environmental and social factors influence chorusing behaviour in a tropical frog: examining various temporal and spatial scales

Many animals use conspicuous display to attract mates, and there should be selection for displays to occur at times and places that maximise the probability of mating, while minimising energetic costs and predator attraction. To select the best times for display, individuals may use environmental cues, the presence of other individuals, or both, but few studies have examined these sources of variation in display activity. In this study, we examined physical environmental and social factors triggering displays in a tropical, terrestrially breeding frog, Cophixalus ornatus. To measure the influence of physical environmental conditions on calling activity, we recorded temperature, rainfall, moon illumination/visibility, humidity, barometric pressure and intensity of calling activity throughout a breeding season at six locations along a 560-m transect. The intensity of calling varied daily, seasonally, and at a small spatial scale. Variation in calling activity from day to day was large. There was also a strong seasonal trend in calling activity: few males called at the start of the season, activity peaked shortly after the beginning of the season, and then declined linearly from the peak to the end of the season. There was also consistent variation among sites along the transect, which may have been due to variations in frog density at each site, or to consistent microscale variations in physical conditions, or both. After statistically removing consistent local variation among sites, a principal components analysis suggested that a maximum of 35.8% of the variation in calling activity among days was due to factors common to all sites, such as weather, moon illumination, or large-scale social facilitation (e.g. of choruses by other choruses). The remainder of the variation among sites (64.2%) was due to site-specific factors, such as small-scale social facilitation or unmeasured, apparently stochastic effects, such as microenvironmental physical factors that do not vary consistently over sites. Regressions of environmental variables on residual calling activity (after removing consistent effects of site and season), alone or in combination, accounted for very little of the variation in the number of calling males (maximum 10%). Thus, our data, showing strong seasonal effects and consistent variation among sites combined with large amounts of variation in the number of calling males at small spatial scales, suggest that environmental conditions, such as temperature, rainfall, moon illumination and barometric pressure, which act over large spatial scales, may determine the overall environmental envelope within which calling can occur but do not account for most of the variation in the number of calling males on a day-to-day or site-to-site basis. Similarly, variations in the number of calling males at small spatial scales suggest that social facilitation is a relatively unimportant trigger for displays on a large scale in these frogs. On the other hand, our data suggest that social facilitation may have important effects on variation in the number of calling males on a day-to-day and site-to-site basis. We used playback experiments to assess whether the sound of calling could initiate displays. We played either a taped chorus or white noise in areas where few (zero to two) males were calling. The number of calling males increased both during and after the chorus stimulus, whereas there was no increase in calling in response to white noise. These data suggest that examining variation in calling activity at small spatial scales can reveal the sources of variation for the number of calling males, and indicate that, in these frogs, males tend to use the calling of other individuals as a cue to determine when to display. Received: 19 October 1999 / Revised: 30 June 2000 / Accepted: 26 August 2000     

Experimental evidence for a dual pathway model analysis of coping with the climate crisis

Two experiments examined the psychological power of fear and group efficacy beliefs to increase environmental action intentions against the climate crisis. Extending a dual pathway model of coping with collective disadvantage, results showed evidence for emotion-focused approach coping: Environmental action intentions were increased by individuals' manipulated fear of the negative future consequences of the climate crisis (Experiments 1–2). Additionally, results showed evidence for problem-focused approach coping: Individuals' measured (Experiment 1) and manipulated group efficacy beliefs (Experiment 2) increased environmental action intentions. The results thus suggest that the dual pathway model can be successfully applied to a psychological analysis of emotion- and problem-focused approach coping with the climate crisis. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.     

关于旅游资源理论的再思考

综合旅游资源各种概念表明,多数概念建立在二分法的基础上,其结果失去了客观、全面的基础。在自然界中资源类型是多样化的,不同类型的资源之间具有连续性的特征,只是在属性上存在着程度上的差异,不能对它们进行简单分类;在自然界中还存在着很多类似旅游资源的资源类型,在学术研究和规划实践中应重视旅游资源隶属程度描述。在解析旅游资源特征及其分类要求的基础上,通过理论方法——基于模糊数学的旅游资源隶属程度分析方法,破解旅游资源认识误区,为正确分析、评价及合理开发旅游资源提供理论参考。     

基于变异系数法的模糊数学模型在城市生态系统健康评价中的应用

从城市生态系统的健康内涵出发,选取活力、组织结构、恢复力、生态系统服务功能和人群健康状况构建城市生态系统健康评价指标体系,采用基于变异系数的赋权法确定指标权重,运用模糊数学方法对2007—2011年兰州市城市生态系统健康进行评价分析。明确兰州市生态系统健康状况及制约因子,为兰州市城市生态建设及可持续发展提供参考。     

模糊数学在引黄水库水质评价中的应用研究

通过构建模糊数学模型评价济南某引黄水库的进水口和出水口的水质,评价结果发现该引黄水库进水口和出水口分别属于Ⅳ和I类水;而根据单因子评价方法,进水口和出水口水质均属于V类,主要是由于化学需氧量超标导致。模糊数学评价法用隶属度来描绘模糊的水质分级界限,避免了传统水质分级不连续的缺陷,避免了在单因子评价中因某项参数超标而将水质定类的缺点,得到了较为客观的评价。     

Particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in typical urban of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau: Characterization,sources and risk assessment

• The sampling was conducted in city on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau for one year. • The groups of PAHs revealed their different environmental fates and migration paths. • Seasonal biomass burning could affect the concentration by long-distance transport. • Industrial sources and traffic emissions were the main contributor of PAHs. • Living in industrial areas or winter had higher health risk by exposure PAHs in PM_2.5. Monthly particle-phase ambient samples collected at six sampling locations in Yuxi, a high-altitude city on the edge of Southeast Asia, were measured for particle-associated PAHs. As trace substances, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are susceptible to the influences of meteorological conditions, emissions, and gas-particulate partitioning and it is challenging job to precise quantify the source and define the transmission path. The daily concentrations of total PM_2.5-bound PAHs ranged from 0.65 to 80.76 ng/m³, with an annual mean of 11.94 ng/m³. Here, we found that the concentration of PM_2.5-bound PAHs in winter was significantly higher than that in summer, which was mainly due to source and meteorology influence. The increase of fossil combustion and biomass burning in cold season became the main contributors of PAHs, while precipitation and low temperature exacerbated this difference. According to the concentration variation trend of PM_2.5-bound PAHs and their relationship with meteorological conditions, a new grouping of PAHs is applied, which suggested that PAHs have different environmental fates and migration paths. A combination of source analysis and trajectory model supported local sources from combustion of fossil fuel and vehicle exhaust contributed to the major portion on PAHs in particle, but on the Indochina Peninsula the large number of pollutants emitted by biomass burning during the fire season would affect the composition of PAHs through long-range transporting. Risk assessment in spatial and temporal variability suggested that citizens living in industrial areas were higher health risk caused by exposure the PM_2.5-bound PAHs than that in other regions, and the risk in winter was three times than in summer.     

长株潭城市群大气污染潜在源区分析及传输通道研究——以株洲市为例

利用Hysplit、MeteoInfo模型,计算株洲2017—2019年特护期(10月至次年3月)的后向轨迹,并进行轨迹聚类、潜在源贡献因子(PSCF)和浓度权重轨迹(CWT)分析。结果表明,10—12月,污染物潜在源区主要分布在偏北方向,1—3月,偏南方向的源区不断扩大,这与季节更替、季风转换有关;12和1月,潜在源区面积最大,强度最强,传输通道最清晰。对特护期各月份进行权重潜在源贡献因子(WPSCF)和加权浓度权重轨迹(WCWT)分析,结果表明,12月有1条明显的WPSCF高值带起源于河南省中北部,一路向南,经平顶山、过南阳、再经襄阳进入湖北省,该高值带蛇形前进,过荆州跨长江经岳阳华容县进入湖南,再过常德、益阳,以弧形路径到达长株潭地区,这条路径是12月北方污染物影响长株潭的主要传输通道。WCWT分析也有类似结果,且通道路径更宽广,1月的潜在源区在偏北方向呈扇形分布,在较远距离上的河南、安徽等省份呈指状分布。经2017年12月5日重污染个例检验发现,传输轨迹与分析的传输通道一致。