The lag daemon: hysteresis in rebuilding landscapes and implications for biodiversity futures

Many native bird species in production landscapes of south-eastern Australia demonstrably are declining, with loss of native vegetation as the major cause. Our biodiversity management objectives must be to increase the probabilities of persistence of birds that should occur in the landscape. To do so, there needs to be extensive amounts of new plantings. However, one must be conscious that: (1) new plantings in the impoverished soils and increasing aridity of southern Australia will take many decades to mature, and, also, will offer suitable habitats for a sequence of different species over the course of that maturation process; and (2) much existing vegetation is senescent or will be in a few decades' time. Recent landscape rebuilding models do not explicitly consider maturation time-lags. These hystereses in habitat maturation may create 'bottlenecks' at future times (e.g. in 50yr) that might prevent some species from persisting in whole landscapes even though such landscapes may be much more suitable in 100yr than now. There are several critical issues: (1) species differ in habitat needs and even one species may require different kinds of habitats for foraging and for breeding; (2) landscapes must be conceived, and managed, as spatial and temporal mosaics to allow for persistence of the full set of species that should occupy them, meaning that senescing and replanted habitats may need to be juxtaposed; and (3) in certain particularly problematic landscapes, some highly productive agricultural lands may need to be used for providing habitat because maturation can be fast-tracked in fertile, well-watered locations. The problem is a complex one of scheduling and placement, and its optimization presents major theoretical and analytical challenges.     

When Has an Abandoned Field Become a Semi-Natural Grassland or Heathland?

This study presents a meta-analysis of a collective dataset describing the succession from abandoned fields to semi-natural grassland and heathland vegetation over the past century. The study objectives were to develop a method for statistical discrimination between abandoned fields and semi-natural habitats and to analyze the probability that an abandoned field had developed into a semi-natural habitat. A statistical classification model was developed, based on lists of vascular plants from 2059 plots from Danish semi-natural grasslands and heathlands, and abandoned fields of varying age. This model was shown to discriminate effectively between abandoned fields and semi-natural habitats, and it was found to be potentially useful for the detection of abandoned fields approaching semi-natural vegetation. We suggest that the model may help clarify restoration targets and assess biological condition in formerly cultivated areas. Statistical modeling revealed that succession age, period of abandonment and succession trajectory had significant effects on the probability that abandoned fields reached the semi-natural phase. Our study indicates that restoration projects targeting grassland and heathland should take local species pools and soil fertility into account. Nomenclature: Species names follow Flora Europaea (Tutin and others 1964–1993).     

RESEARCH: Warmwater Stream Bank Protection and Fish Habitat: A Comparative Study

/ Fishes and their habitats were sampled in Harland Creek, Mississippi, for 3 years to compare the relative value of three types of bank treatment in an incised, warmwater stream. Semiannual samples were collected from 10 reaches: 3 reaches protected by each of the three types of protection (longitudinal stone toe, stone spurs, and dormant willow posts) and an unprotected, slowly eroding bend. Protection of concave banks of bends had no measurable effect on the habitat quality of downstream riffles. Although bends and adjacent downstream riffles were faunistically similar at the species level, catostomids and centrarchids were more dominant in pools and smaller cyprinids more dominant in riffles. Reaches with willow posts were slightly deeper than the others, most likely because of geomorphic factors rather than bank treatment. Mean water surface widths in reaches stabilized with stone spurs were 40% to 90% greater than for other treatments, and current velocities were greatest in reaches with stone toe. Patterns of fish abundance and species diversity did not differ significantly among treatments. However, principal components analysis indicated that the fish species distribution associated with the untreated reference site was distinct. Reaches stabilized with stone spurs supported significantly higher densities of large fish and higher levels of fish biomass per unit channel length than reaches with other bank treatments, generally confirming previous research in the region. Initial costs for spurs were comparable to those for stone toe and about three times greater than for willow posts.     

Managing Radioactively Contaminated Land: Implications for Habitat Diversity

Radioactive contamination of agricultural land may necessitate long-term changes in food production systems, through application of selected countermeasures, in order to reduce the accumulation of radionuclides in food. We quantified the impact of selected countermeasures on habitat diversity, using the hypothetical case of two agricultural areas in Finland. The management scenarios studied were conversions from grassland to cereal production and from grassland and crop production to afforestation. The two study sites differed with respect to present agricultural production: one being predominantly cereal production and seminatural grasslands, while the other was dominated by intensive grass and dairy production. Some of the management scenarios are expected to affect landscape structures and habitat diversity. These potential changes were assessed using a spatial pattern analysis program in connection with geographic information systems. The studied landscape changes resulted in a more monotonous landscape structure compared to the present management, by increasing the mean habitat patch size, reducing the total habitat edge length and reducing the overall habitat diversity calculated by the Shannon diversity index. The degree of change was dependent on the present agricultural management practice in the case study sites. Where dairy production was predominant, the landscape structure changes were mostly due to conversion of intensive pastures and grasslands to cereal production. In the area dominated by cereal production and seminatural grasslands, the greatest predicted impacts resulted from afforestation of meadows and pastures. The studied management changes are predicted to reduce biodiversity at the species level as well as diminishing species-rich habitats. This study has predicted prominent side effects in habitat diversity resulting from application of management scenarios. These potential long-term impacts should be considered by decision-makers when planning future strategies in the event of radionuclide deposition.     

A landscape analysis of cougar distribution and abundance in Montana, USA

Recent growth in the distribution and abundance of cougars (Puma concolor) throughout western North America has created opportunities, challenges, and problems for wildlife managers and raises questions about what factors affect cougar populations. We present an analysis of factors thought to affect cougar distribution and abundance across the broad geographical scales on which most population management decisions are made. Our objectives were to: (1) identify and evaluate landscape parameters that can be used to predict the capability of habitats to support cougars, and (2) evaluate factors that may account for the recent expansion in cougar numbers. Habitat values based on terrain ruggedness and forested cover explained 73% of the variation in a cougar abundance index. Indices of cougar abundance also were spatially and temporally correlated with ungulate abundance. An increase in the number and total biomass of ungulate prey species is hypothesized to account for recent increases in cougars. Cougar populations in Montana are coping with land development by humans when other components of habitat and prey populations are sufficient. Our analysis provides a better understanding of what may have influenced recent growth in cougar distribution and abundance in Montana and, when combined with insights about stakeholder acceptance capacity, offers a basis for cougar management at broad scales. Long-term conservation of cougars necessitates a better understanding of ecosystem functions that affect prey distribution and abundance, more accurate estimates of cougar populations, and management abilities to integrate these components with human values.     

Nest selection by snow petrels Pagodroma nivea in East Antarctica: Validating predictive habitat selection models at the continental scale

Little is known on the factors controlling distribution and abundance of snow petrels in Antarctica. Studying habitat selection through modeling may provide useful information on the relationships between this species and its environment, especially relevant in a climate change context, where habitat availability may change. Validating the predictive capability of habitat selection models with independent data is a vital step in assessing the performance of such models and their potential for predicting species’ distribution in poorly documented areas.From the results of ground surveys conducted in the Casey region (2002–2003, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica), habitat selection models based on a dataset of 4000 nests were created to predict the nesting distribution of snow petrels as a function of topography and substrate. In this study, the Casey models were tested at Mawson, 3800 km away from Casey. The location and characteristics of approximately 7700 snow petrel nests were collected during ground surveys (Summer 2004–2005). Using GIS, predictive maps of nest distribution were produced for the Mawson region with the models derived from the Casey datasets and predictions were compared to the observed data. Models performance was assessed using classification matrixes and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Overall correct classification rates for the Casey models varied from 57% to 90%. However, two geomorphologically different sub-regions (coastal islands and inland mountains) were clearly distinguished in terms of habitat selection by Casey model predictions but also by the specific variations in coefficients of terms in new models, derived from the Mawson data sets. Observed variations in the snow petrel aggregations were found to be related to local habitat availability.We discuss the applicability of various types of models (GLM, CT) and investigate the effect of scale on the prediction of snow petrel habitats. While the Casey models created with data collected at the nest scale did not perform well at Mawson due to regional variations in nest micro-characteristics, the predictive performance of models created with data compiled at a coarser scale (habitat units) was satisfactory. Substrate type was the most robust predictor of nest presence between Casey and Mawson. This study demonstrate that it is possible to predict at the large scale the presence of snow petrel nests based on simple predictors such as topography and substrate, which can be obtained from aerial photography. Such methodologies have valuable applications in the management and conservation of this top predator and associated resources and may be applied to other Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and lower latitudes species and in a variety of habitats.     

人工替代栖息地对长江口湿地的补充作用研究

利用恢复生态学和景观生态学原理构建人工替代栖息地是恢复和重建生物栖息地环境的重要手段之一,是用于滨海河口区修复或重建滩涂湿地等栖息地的一种替代方法。人工替代栖息地构建出了接近自然原貌的人工系统,创造一种湿地植被和湿地动物可以协调共存的生境,不仅可以为鸟类资源和渔业资源提供良好的栖息环境,其中多样化组合的植被群落在滨水景观、水质净化等方面也起到了重要的作用,对长江口自然湿地的恢复和自然保护区的动态管理具有不可忽视的补充作用。在迁徙鸟类重要中转驿站,珍稀或者经济鱼类的洄游通道,特殊价值的重要湿地景观格局以及水资源战略储备区域中布局人工替代栖息地,可以发挥其对长江口湿地的补充作用,使高度开放而又极为敏感的长江河口地区循着生态健康道路发展。     

An ecological model of the habitat mosaic in estuarine nursery areas: Part I—Interaction of dispersal theory and habitat variability in describing juvenile fish distributions

Identification of critical habitat in estuarine nursery areas is an important conservation and management objective. Habitat can be viewed as a mosaic of both temporally variable environmental features and spatially variable structural features that combine to define optimal habitat. Effective models of juvenile distributions should account for individual movement, as well as the full suite of habitat variability including both spatial and temporal components. We have extended a terrestrial model of small-scale movement patterns to describe habitat choices of an index juvenile fish in an estuarine nursery system. Movement of small juvenile fishes was found to be influenced by both spatial and temporal patterns in habitat quality, and it was a balanced mix of both that resulted in an optimal distribution. Fishes that perceive habitat on a scale much smaller than the scale of spatial heterogeneity may respond to temporal change as a movement cue allowing for more deterministic outcomes at larger scales despite perceptual limitations. These model outcomes suggest a hierarchical approach is best for describing habitat choice in juvenile fishes and this approach will be used in the future to explore individual and population responses to predictable habitat change.     

How temperature and habitat quality affect parasitoid lifetime reproductive success—A simulation study

Adult parasitoid females lay their eggs in or on host insects. Most species are incapable of de novo lipogenesis as adults, and lipids accumulated during the larval stage are allocated either to egg production or to adult survival. Lipid consumption increases with distance covered by the parasitoids and thus with the distance between available hosts within a habitat. Temperature should affect parasitoid fitness because it changes the constraint imposed by a limited reserve of lipids and because it influences behaviour. Climate change involves both an increase in average temperature and an increased frequency of extreme weather such as heat waves. We investigated how the predicted increase of temperature will affect parasitoid fitness and how this depends on habitat parameters (spatial distribution of hosts and lipid cost of habitat exploitation). We studied optimal behaviour and calculated fitness at different temperatures and in different habitats using a stochastic dynamic programming model for pro-ovigenic parasitoids (which mature all their eggs before becoming adult). We show that an increase in temperature decreases fitness of parasitoids adapted to lower temperatures. This decrease in fitness depends on habitat quality. In field conditions (assuming small costs of intra-patch foraging), the loss of fitness should be larger in habitats with high inter-patch distance and in habitats with a more aggregated distribution of hosts. The foraging behaviour of parasitoids is also affected; at higher temperature we show that intra-patch foraging becomes less efficient, and patch residence times are longer.     

Predicting local population distributions around a central shelter based on a predation risk-growth trade-off

Animals face trade-offs between predation risk and foraging success depending on their location in the landscape; for example, individuals that remain near a common shelter may be safe from predation but incur stronger competition for resources. Despite a long tradition of theoretical exploration of the relationships among foraging success, conspecific competition, predation risk, and population distribution in a heterogeneous environment, the scenario we describe here has not been explored theoretically. We construct a model of habitat use rules to predict the distribution of a local population (prey sharing a common shelter and foraging across surrounding habitats). Our model describes realized habitat quality as a ratio of density- and location-dependent mortality to density-dependent growth. We explore how the prey distribution around a shelter is expected to change as the parameters governing the strength of density dependence, landscape characteristics, and local abundance vary. Within the range of parameters where prey spend some time away from shelter but remain site-attached, the prey density decreases away from shelter. As the distance at which prey react to predators increases, the population range generally increases. At intermediate reaction distances, however, increases in the reaction distance lead to decreases in the maximum foraging distance because of increased evenness in the population distribution. As total abundance increases, the population range increases, average population density increases, and realized quality decreases. The magnitude of these changes differs in, for example, ‘high-’ and ‘low-visibility’ landscapes where prey can detect predators at different distances.