SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

Tiny Stowaways: Analyzing the Economic Benefits of a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Permit Regulating Ballast Water Discharges

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed permitting ballast water discharges—a benefit of which would be to reduce the economic damages associated with the introduction and spread of aquatic invasive species. Research on ship-borne aquatic invasive species has been conducted in earnest for decades, but determining the economic damages they cause remains troublesome. Furthermore, with the exception of harmful algal blooms, the economic consequences of microscopic invaders have not been studied, despite their potentially great negative effects. In this paper, we show how to estimate the economic benefits of preventing the introduction and spread of harmful bacteria, microalgae, and viruses delivered in U.S. waters. Our calculations of net social welfare show the damages from a localized incident, cholera-causing bacteria found in shellfish in the Gulf of Mexico, to be approximately $706,000 (2006$). On a larger scale, harmful algal species have the potential to be transported in ships’ ballast tanks, and their effects in the United States have been to reduce commercial fisheries landings and impair water quality. We examine the economic repercussions of one bloom-forming species. Finally, we consider the possible translocation within the Great Lakes of a virus that has the potential to harm commercial and recreational fisheries. These calculations illustrate an approach to quantifying the benefits of preventing invasive aquatic microorganisms from controls on ballast water discharges. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

Modeling Long‐Term Trends of Chlorinated Ethene Contamination at a Public Supply Well

A mass‐balance solute‐transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long‐term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three‐dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.     

Life cycle assessment of a pulverized coal power plant with post-combustion capture, transport and storage of CO2

In this study the methodology of life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of three pulverized coal fired electricity supply chains with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS) on a cradle to grave basis. The chain with CCS comprises post-combustion CO₂ capture with monoethanolamine, compression, transport by pipeline and storage in a geological reservoir. The two reference chains represent sub-critical and state-of-the-art ultra supercritical pulverized coal fired electricity generation. For the three chains we have constructed a detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, and disclosed environmental trade-offs and co-benefits due to CO₂ capture, transport and storage. Results show that, due to CCS, the GHG emissions per kWh are reduced substantially to 243 g/kWh. This is a reduction of 78 and 71% compared to the sub-critical and state-of-the-art power plant, respectively. The removal of CO₂ is partially offset by increased GHG emissions in up- and downstream processes, to a small extent (0.7 g/kWh) caused by the CCS infrastructure. An environmental co-benefit is expected following from the deeper reduction of hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen chloride emissions. Most notable environmental trade-offs are the increase in human toxicity, ozone layer depletion and fresh water ecotoxicity potential for which the CCS chain is outperformed by both other chains. The state-of-the-art power plant without CCS also shows a better score for the eutrophication, acidification and photochemical oxidation potential despite the deeper reduction of SO_x and NO_x in the CCS power plant. These reductions are offset by increased emissions in the life cycle due to the energy penalty and a factor five increase in NH₃ emissions.     

Stream Condition in Piedmont Streams with Restored Riparian Buffers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed1

Orzetti, Leslie L., R. Christian Jones, and Robert F. Murphy, 2010. Stream Condition in Piedmont Streams with Restored Riparian Buffers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):473-485. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00414.x Abstract: This study tested the efficacy of restored forest riparian buffers along streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by examining habitat, selected water quality variables, and benthic macroinvertebrate community metrics in 30 streams with buffers ranging from zero to greater than 50 years of age. To assess water quality we measured in situ parameters (temperature, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity) and laboratory-analyzed grab samples (soluble reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonium, and total suspended solids). Habitat conditions were scored using the Environmental Protection Agency Rapid Bioassessment Protocols for high gradient streams. Benthic macroinvertebrates were quantified using pooled riffle/run kick samples. Results showed that habitat, water quality, and benthic macroinvertebrate metrics generally improved with age of restored buffer. Habitat scores appeared to stabilize between 10 and 15 years of age and were driven mostly by epifaunal substrate availability, sinuosity, embeddedness, and velocity depth regime. Benthic invertebrate taxa richness, percent Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera minus hydropsychids (%EPT minus H), % Ephemeroptera, and the Family Biotic Index were among the metrics which improved with age of buffer zone. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that forest riparian buffers enhance instream habitat, water quality, and resulting benthic macroinvertebrate communities with noticeable improvements occurring within 5-10 years postrestoration, leading to conditions approaching those of long established buffers within 10-15 years of restoration.     

MEASURING IMPACTS OF URBAN WATER DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT The role of water resources in the urban economic and social environment, particularly in the inner city, has never been established to the degree necessary for making informed decisions on investments in urban waterway and shoreline improvements. The basic tools for measuring psychological and social impacts of waterway and shoreline developments in the inner city have not been fully developed and utilized to date. However, through a detailed analysis of the water resources in the urban core area of Cleveland, it appears that deliberate development of water-based recreation and other environmental resources can lead to improvement in some of the social problems of the inner city. In recreation analysis, there is currently a great gap between methodologies that are conceptually sound and those that have been applied by urban and water-resources planning agencies. New tools and methodologies can only be used successfully when public agencies are given the institutional and policy means for using them equitably in light of social needs. Present urban-water planning practices have been found to be biased against the inner city, often unintentionally.     

Comparing Environmental Flow Implementation Options with Structured Decision Making: Case Study from the Willamette River,Oregon

Many frameworks have been used to identify environmental flows for sustaining river ecosystems or specific taxa in the face of widespread flow alteration. However, these frameworks largely focus on identifying suitable flows and often ignore the important links between management actions, resulting flows, and valued ecosystem or social responses. Structured decision making (SDM) could assist the comparison of environmental flows by providing a mature framework to link management actions to objectives via environmental flow science. We describe SDM and illustrate its application using a case study focused on comparing environmental flow scenarios for the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon. In a short timeframe, SDM was applied to identify objectives, develop empirical and expert opinion‐based models, and compare flow scenarios while accounting for interannual flow variability and partial controllability. No scenario was clearly preferred based on available knowledge, largely because river flows could only be partially controlled through dam operations. Participants agreed that SDM was useful for comparing alternative dam operations, but that refined predictive models and additional objectives were needed to better inform basinwide flow decisions. In our view, SDM can provide more realistic comparisons of environmental flows by accounting for partial controllability and uncertainty, which may result in greater implementation of available flow management actions.     

西南某化工园区周边区域环境空气中苯系物和卤代烃的污染特征及健康风险研究

于2020年8月和11月,在中国西南某化工园区周边6个采样点采集环境空气样品,对5种典型苯系物(苯、甲苯、乙苯、邻二甲苯、间/对二甲苯)和7种典型卤代烃(三氯甲烷、三氯乙烯、四氯化碳、四氯乙烯、三溴甲烷、一溴二氯甲烷和二溴一氯甲烷)进行研究,明确了区域典型苯系物和卤代烃(BSHs)的污染特征,并评估其对人体的健康风险。结果表明:化工园区周边环境空气中苯系物检出率均 60%,卤代烃中除三溴甲烷、一溴二氯甲烷和二溴一氯甲烷外,检出率均 50%。苯系物和卤代烃的平均质量浓度分别为4.14～11.19μg/m~3和0.30～10.86μg/m~3。BSHs的浓度夏季低于冬季,这可能与人为的季节性燃烧源有关。苯、四氯化碳和四氯乙烯超过国际WELL建筑标准v2,全年超标率分别为3.33%,8.33%和11.67%。BSHs的非致癌和致癌风险均为成人儿童,成人和儿童的非致癌总风险分别为1.87×10~(-2)和1.26×10~(-2),处于可接受水平;成人和儿童的致癌风险分别为1.76×10~(-3)和1.19×10~(-3),处于不可接受水平。     

江苏某醋厂排放VOCs的特征及健康风险评价

以江苏某醋厂为研究对象,使用便携式气相色谱/质谱仪实地采样,定性定量分析该厂挥发性有机物(VOCs)的排放特征及异味物质强度特征。采用美国环境保护署(USEPA)的健康风险评价模型,评估醋厂排放VOCs对周围居民的健康影响,结果表明,该厂排放的VOCs仅导致较强的感官影响,未产生明显的致癌效应。     

A Fish-Based Index of Biotic Integrity to Assess Intermittent Headwater Streams in Wisconsin, USA

I developed a fish-based index of biotic integrity (IBI) to assess environmental quality in intermittent headwater streams in Wisconsin, USA. Backpack electrofishing and habitat surveys were conducted four times on 102 small (watershed area 1.7–41.5 km²), cool or warmwater (maximum daily mean water temperature ≥22 C), headwater streams in spring and late summer/fall 2000 and 2001. Despite seasonal and annual changes in stream flow and habitat volume, there were few significant temporal trends in fish attributes. Analysis of 36 least-impacted streams indicated that fish were too scarce to calculate an IBI at stations with watershed areas less than 4 km² or at stations with watershed areas from 4–10 km² if stream gradient exceeded 10 m/km (1% slope). For streams with sufficient fish, potential fish attributes (metrics) were not related to watershed size or gradient. Seven metrics distinguished among streams with low, agricultural, and urban human impacts: numbers of native, minnow (Cyprinidae), headwater-specialist, and intolerant (to environmental degradation) species; catches of all fish excluding species tolerant of environmental degradation and of brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) per 100 m stream length; and percentage of total individuals with deformities, eroded fins, lesions, or tumors. These metrics were used in the final IBI, which ranged from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). The IBI accurately assessed the environmental quality of 16 randomly chosen streams not used in index development. Temporal variation in IBI scores in the absence of changes in environmental quality was not related to season, year, or type of human impact and was similar in magnitude to variation reported for other IBI's.