漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

漫湾水电站是澜沧江水能梯级开发的第一个干流大型水电站，加强库区水土流失治理与监督监测尤为必要，而降雨侵蚀力的时空分布规律研究则是实现区域土壤侵蚀定量监测预报的重要基础。根据有关降雨侵蚀力的计算方法，利用漫湾电站库区4个测站1980～2000年的逐月平均降雨资料，估算了其降雨侵蚀力R值的时空分布规律及其变化特征。结果表明：漫湾电站库区多年平均降雨侵蚀力在1 9336～3 9727 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的年内变化显著，且较大值集中分布在雨季的5月～10月，平均R值占全年的867%，尤其6～8月连续3个月的降雨侵蚀力平均占全年侵蚀力的一半以上；R值的年际变化显示20世纪90年代漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力比80年代平均增加2835 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的空间分布上以凤庆站点的年降雨侵蚀力最大；南涧站点的年降雨侵蚀力最小，但是其年际波动幅度较大。全面地分析了漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力R值的时空变化特征，为该地区有效防止与监测水土流失情况、更好地安置水电站工程移民提供参考。     

滑坡灾害监测与预测时序分析

本文提出了一种边坡滑坡时序建模预测分析方法,以AR模型为例,探讨了时序建模及其预报的基本思想,最后用AR模型对清江电站进口边坡406阻滑键监测数据建模及预报,取得了一定的成果.     

The political economy of power generation in Zimbabwe since 1980

This article presents a historical analysis of the power generation choices in Zimbabwe since independence in 1980; their causes and consequences. In the early 1980s, the electricity supply choices of the country were dictated by a policy of self-sufficiency, and least-cost supply options (e.g. imports and hydropower) were rejected at a not negligible economic cost. At the end of the 1980s, a new political environment and pressures from the World Bank prompted substantial changes towards least-cost alternatives. In the early 1990s, security of supply motives still played an important role and financial constraints were severe. At present, however, there is little evidence that imported power is still as cheap a source of electricity as it was about 15 years ago. This situation together with the ongoing trend towards higher discount rates imply that thermal power, in particular coal-fired power, will dominate future electricity supply investments in Zimbabwe.     

漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

漫湾水电站是澜沧江水能梯级开发的第一个干流大型水电站,加强库区水土流失治理与监督监测尤为必要,而降雨侵蚀力的时空分布规律研究则是实现区域土壤侵蚀定量监测预报的重要基础。根据有关降雨侵蚀力的计算方法,利用漫湾电站库区4个测站1980～2000年的逐月平均降雨资料,估算了其降雨侵蚀力R值的时空分布规律及其变化特征。结果表明：漫湾电站库区多年平均降雨侵蚀力在1 9336～3 9727 MJ·mm/hm2·h;R值的年内变化显著,且较大值集中分布在雨季的5月～10月,平均R值占全年的867%,尤其6～8月连续3个月的降雨侵蚀力平均占全年侵蚀力的一半以上;R值的年际变化显示20世纪90年代漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力比80年代平均增加2835 MJ·mm/hm2·h;R值的空间分布上以凤庆站点的年降雨侵蚀力最大;南涧站点的年降雨侵蚀力最小,但是其年际波动幅度较大。全面地分析了漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力R值的时空变化特征,为该地区有效防止与监测水土流失情况、更好地安置水电站工程移民提供参考。     

How Run-of-River Operation Affects Hydropower Generation and Value

Regulated rivers in the United States are required to support human water uses while preserving aquatic ecosystems. However, the effectiveness of hydropower license requirements nationwide has not been demonstrated. One requirement that has become more common is “run-of-river” (ROR) operation, which restores a natural flow regime. It is widely believed that ROR requirements (1) are mandated to protect aquatic biota, (2) decrease hydropower generation per unit flow, and (3) decrease energy revenue. We tested these three assumptions by reviewing hydropower projects with license-mandated changes from peaking to ROR operation. We found that ROR operation was often prescribed in states with strong water-quality certification requirements and migratory fish species. Although benefits to aquatic resources were frequently cited, changes were often motivated by other considerations. After controlling for climate, the overall change in annual generation efficiency across projects because of the change in operation was not significant. However, significant decreases were detected at one quarter of individual hydropower projects. As expected, we observed a decrease in flow during peak demand at 7 of 10 projects. At the remaining projects, diurnal fluctuations actually increased because of operation of upstream storage projects. The economic implications of these results, including both producer costs and ecologic benefits, are discussed. We conclude that regional-scale studies of hydropower regulation, such as this one, are long overdue. Public dissemination of flow data, license provisions, and monitoring data by way of on-line access would facilitate regional policy analysis while increasing regulatory transparency and providing feedback to decision makers.     

流域结构分析在水电梯级开发规划环评中的应用

以长江右岸一级支流磨刀溪流域为研究对象,利用卫星影像和地形图为基础数据,在GIS技术支持下,进行流域结构分级,并通过对各级溪流的河流属性、空间结构、生态特征等的分析,就流域结构分析在磨刀溪水电梯级开发规划环评中的应用进行了研究。     

溪洛渡水电工程拦沙对三峡水库富营养化潜在影响的初步研究

从泥沙吸附的角度，探讨金沙江溪洛渡水电站拦沙对三峡水库溶解性磷负荷的影响。2006年11月在金沙江、长江干流和支流岷江、沱江采集了淤积泥沙和水样，测定了泥沙的全磷、有效磷和磷固定量及水的溶解性磷等指标。岷江和沱江泥沙的有效磷含量远高于金沙江和长江干流，反映了四川盆地支流的磷污染较干流严重；干流泥沙的有效磷含量向下游呈增加和磷固定量向下游呈减少的趋势，反映了干流泥沙沿途不断吸附四川盆地支流汇入干流中的溶解性磷，磷固定能力有所降低。根据金沙江宜宾与长江朱沱泥沙的有效磷含量和磷固定量，金沙江来沙年吸附溶解性磷分别为382和6 885 t，分别相当于朱沱站的26%和468％。溪洛渡水库拦蓄泥沙，金沙江来沙吸附长江干流溶解性磷的量将有所减少。水库投入运行后的前50年，以有效磷含量计，金沙江来沙的磷吸附量占朱沱年溶解性磷总量的比例从26%降至10%；以磷固定量计，从468％降至174%。长江干流进入三峡水库的年溶解性磷总量有可能增加16%～294%。金沙江来沙降低三峡入库磷负荷的实际功能，可能介于有效磷含量和磷固定量的计算值之间，具体值还需开展进一步的试验研究。     

三峡漂浮物处理方案探讨

2003年三峡水电站蓄水发电后，漂浮物将严重地影响机组的正常发电、危及机组的安全运行，并且对下游的葛洲坝水电站造成威胁，本文根据三峡水电站漂浮物的组成特点，从我国城市垃圾处理的现状和再生资源利用的现状及环境保护的角度出发，讨论了漂浮物的三种处理方案－卫生填埋，焚烧回收热能，再生利用。根据三峡水电站周边地区垃圾处理现状，漂浮物治理现状以及经济的角度等，对三种方案进行了综合评价，认为再生利用漂浮物更加可行。     

Socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower: The São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil

Economic expansion and related resource and infrastructure needs provoke an increase of socio-environmental conflicts worldwide, and methodologies for their comprehensive analysis and understanding are necessary. The present paper suggests a methodology for the analysis of socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower, developed from a case study on the São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil. On the basis of qualitative semi-structured interviews, a stakeholder definition and conflict analysis were carried out. The analysis shows that at least five different sub-conflicts, each one with its own characteristics, can be distinguished, and that negotiation on many of these conflicts is difficult. Confrontation processes are therefore likely to occur. The current strategy of conflict treatment falls short of the situation; instead solutions must be sought looking at the underlying conflict causes. A restructuring of the energy policy and the approach to traditional populations is a necessary precondition if robust and comprehensive solutions on the current socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower in the Amazon were to be found.