APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

STATISTICAL AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING OF PRELIMINARILY ADJUSTED DEFOLIATION ON AN EUROPEAN SCALE

Since 1987 tree crown condition is surveyed annually in large parts of Europe mainly in terms of defoliation. The plot-wise means of defoliation from 1994 to 2000 were evaluated by General Linear Models (GLM) in order to describe country-specific levels of defoliation and age-trends. Additional runs with estimates for influences of insects and fungi were performed. The amount of variance of defoliation explained by country, age and its interaction was between 35% and 59% for the main tree species, except for Quercus ilex. Additionally, up to 10% could be explained by the inclusion of estimates for infestations by insects and fungi. Residuals of the GLMs were taken as a measure of forest condition not biased by country or age effects and interpreted as preliminarily adjusted defoliation (PAD). PAD values were analysed using geostatistical methods. The modelled spatial autocorrelations were used for kriging. The resulting maps give an overview on regions with elevated defoliation, which may pinpoint regional causes of defoliation. The elimination of methodologically caused variance is a precondition of any cause–effect oriented analyses. The combination of explorative modelling and geostatistics will promote the choice of further promising predictors.     

A national ozone biomonitoring program--results from field surveys of ozone sensitive plants in northeastern forests (1994-2000)

Ozone biomonitoring is a detection and monitoring techniquethat involves documenting ozone-induced visible injury toknown ozone-sensitive species under conditions of ambientexposure. The USDA Forest Service administers a long-term,nationwide ozone biomonitoring program to address public andscientific concerns about ozone impacts on forest health. Asystematic grid is used as the basis for biomonitoring sitelocations. At each site, trained field crews evaluate amaximum of thirty plants of up to six species and record the amount and severity of leaf-injury on individualplants. Injury from ozone was found more often on biomonitoring sites in the eastern Unites States than in theinterior or west-coast areas. Further results from thenortheast reveal that in any year, there is a higherpercentage of ozone-injured plants with more severe symptomsin areas with relatively high ozone concentrations than inareas with relatively low ozone. In very dry years (e.g.,1999) the percentage of injured plants and injury severityestimates are both sharply reduced even though ambient ozoneexposures are high. These findings demonstrate thatbiomonitoring data provide meaningful evidence of when highozone concentrations during the growing season have biologicalsignificance. Any assessment of ozone stress in the forestenvironment must include both biomonitoring (i.e., plantresponse) and air quality data to be complete.     

THREE‐DIMENSIONAL KRIGING ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENT MERCURY DISTRIBUTION: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This study presents an application of a three‐dimensional kriging technique to estimate spatial distribution of total mercury (Hg) in the Cedar‐Ortega Rivers watershed located in the lower St. Johns River basin, Florida. The kriging procedures, including preliminary data analysis, structural data analysis and the log kriging estimation, are presented. Results show watershed wide Hg contamination of river sediment to a depth of 1.0 m. A three‐dimensional plot of Hg against the Florida Sediment Assessment Guidelines (i.e., the probable effect level or PEL) demonstrates that the Cedar River is more contaminated with Hg than the rest of the watershed. The maximum sediment depth with Hg concentrations above PEL value (0.696 mg/kg) is 1.5 m. Hg concentrations at or above this level could pose a significant hazard to aquatic organisms. Analysis of the spatial distribution of Hg in the watershed finds multiple input sources. This study suggests that there is a need to identify the major sources of Hg in the watershed, and to determine the pathways that allow Hg to enter the river.     

济南市环境、社会、经济协调发展评价

建立了济南市城市环境、社会、经济协调评价指标体系,采用多目标二级决策方法对各指标的权重进行分配;在已有协调度计算方法的基础上,构建了协调度的计算公式;并运用该指标体系和协调度公式对济南市环境、社会经济协调状况进行评判。结果表明济南市的环境、社会经济之间发展是不平衡的,协调状况为中级协调水平;环境综合指数较低,表明环境的建设滞后于社会经济的发展。     

Remote sensing: Using the spatial domain

Objects in the terrestrial environment interact differentially with electromagnetic radiation according to their essential physical, chemical and biological properties. This differential interaction is manifest as variability in scattered radiation according to wavelength, location, time, geometries of illumination and observation and polarization. If the population of scattered radiation could be measured, then estimation of these essential properties would be straightforward. The only problem would be linking such estimates to environmental variables of interest. This review paper is divided into three parts. Part 1 is an overview of the attempts that have been made to sample the five domains of scattered radiation (spectral, spatial, temporal, geometrical, polarization) and then to use the results of this sampling to estimate environmental variables of interest. Part one highlights three issues: first, that relationships between remotely sensed data and environmental variables of interest are indirect; second, our ability to estimate these environmental variables is dependent upon our ability to capture a sound representation of variability in scattered radiation and third, a considerable portion of the useful information in remotely sensed images resides in the spatial domain (within the relations between the pixels in the image). This final point is developed in Part 2 that explores ways in which the spatial domain is utilized to describe spatial variation in remotely sensed and ground data; to design optimum sampling schemes for image data and ground data and to increase the accuracy with which remotely sensed data can be used to estimate both discontinuous and continuous variables. Part 3 outlines two specific uses of information in the spatial domain; first, to select an optimum spatial resolution and second, to inform an image classification.     

Varying Stable Nitrogen Isotope Ratios of Different Coastal Marsh Plants and Their Relationships with Wastewater Nitrogen and Land Use in New England, USA

The stable nitrogen isotope ratios of some biota have been used as indicators of sources of anthropogenic nitrogen. In this study the relationships of the stable nitrogen isotope ratios of marsh plants, Iva frutescens (L.), Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin ex Steud, Spartina patens (Ait.) Muhl, Spartina alterniflora Loisel, Ulva lactuca (L.), and Enteromorpha intestinalis (L.) with wastewater nitrogen and land development in New England are described. Five of the six plant species (all but U. lactuca) showed significant relationships of increasing δ ¹⁵N values with increasing wastewater nitrogen. There was a significant (P < 0.0001) downward shift in the δ ¹⁵N of S. patens (6.0 ± 0.48‰) which is mycorrhizal compared with S. alterniflora (8.5 ± 0.41‰). The downward shift in δ ¹⁵N may be caused by the assimilation of fixed nitrogen in the roots of S. patens. P. australis within sites had wide ranges of δ ¹⁵N values, evidently influenced by the type of shoreline development or buffer at the upland border. In residential areas, the presence of a vegetated buffer (n = 24 locations) significantly (P < 0.001) reduced the δ ¹⁵N (mean = 7.4 ± 0.43‰) of the P. australis compared to stands where there was no buffer (mean = 10.9 ± 1.0‰; n = 15). Among the plant species, I. frutescens located near the upland border showed the most significant (R ² = 0.64; P = 0.006) inverse relationship with the percent agricultural land in the watershed. The δ ¹⁵N of P. australis and I. frustescens is apparently an indicator of local inputs near the upland border, while the δ ¹⁵N of Spartina relates with the integrated, watershed-sea nitrogen inputs.     

The Valuation of Health Effects Caused by Stationary Sources–Related SO2 Emissions: The Adaptation of Impact Pathway Approach in Taiwan

This paper presents the externalities of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in the Taichung metropolitan, Taiwan. The human effects of SO₂ from stationary sources are a key element for local air quality management. A methodology to evaluate those effects in monetary term had been adapted and applied. This method was modified from the EU-based impact pathway approach link to the skill of geographic information systems. The studied area was divided into 66 districts and the quantity of SO₂ was allocated to each district. Then, the ambient concentration of SO₂ was estimated by using the ordinary kriging method. A risk analysis was employed to characterize the health impacts caused by SO₂. Finally, a monetary transfer approach based on the European data was conducted to estimate local damage costs per ton of SO₂. Health impacts, especially acute mortality, dominate in term of costs. The calculation showed that damage costs ranged from 0.56 to 7.38 USD/kg SO₂ based on the 2002 emission data. The results could be used in the internalization of SO₂ externalities and management of the stationary sources in the studied area. This paper also concludes that the externalities caused by stationary-related SO₂ emissions are some 28.5 million US dollars in Taichung metropolitan (Taiwan) in 2002.     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

Mapping aerial metal deposition in metropolitan areas from tree bark: a case study in Sheffield, England

We investigated the use of metals accumulated on tree bark for mapping their deposition across metropolitan Sheffield by sampling 642 trees of three common species. Mean concentrations of metals were generally an order of magnitude greater than in samples from a remote uncontaminated site. We found trivially small differences among tree species with respect to metal concentrations on bark, and in subsequent statistical analyses did not discriminate between them. We mapped the concentrations of As, Cd and Ni by lognormal universal kriging using parameters estimated by residual maximum likelihood (REML). The concentrations of Ni and Cd were greatest close to a large steel works, their probable source, and declined markedly within 500 m of it and from there more gradually over several kilometres. Arsenic was much more evenly distributed, probably as a result of locally mined coal burned in domestic fires for many years. Tree bark seems to integrate airborne pollution over time, and our findings show that sampling and analysing it are cost-effective means of mapping and identifying sources.