关于建立齐齐哈尔市突发性环境污染事故应急信息系统的探讨

本文从计算机数据管理系统、地理信息系统、知识管理系统出发。全面阐述了构建齐齐哈尔市突发性环境污染事故应急信息系统的结构、功能、特点以及必然趋势。     

Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

Biosemiotics: a new understanding of life

Biosemiotics is the idea that life is based on semiosis, i.e., on signs and codes. This idea has been strongly suggested by the discovery of the genetic code, but so far it has made little impact in the scientific world and is largely regarded as a philosophy rather than a science. The main reason for this is that modern biology assumes that signs and meanings do not exist at the molecular level, and that the genetic code was not followed by any other organic code for almost four billion years, which implies that it was an utterly isolated exception in the history of life. These ideas have effectively ruled out the existence of semiosis in the organic world, and yet there are experimental facts against all of them. If we look at the evidence of life without the preconditions of the present paradigm, we discover that semiosis is there, in every single cell, and that it has been there since the very beginning. This is what biosemiotics is really about. It is not a philosophy. It is a new scientific paradigm that is rigorously based on experimental facts. Biosemiotics claims that the genetic code (1) is a real code and (2) has been the first of a long series of organic codes that have shaped the history of life on our planet. The reality of the genetic code and the existence of other organic codes imply that life is based on two fundamental processes--copying and coding--and this in turn implies that evolution took place by two distinct mechanisms, i.e., by natural selection (based on copying) and by natural conventions (based on coding). It also implies that the copying of genes works on individual molecules, whereas the coding of proteins operates on collections of molecules, which means that different mechanisms of evolution exist at different levels of organization. This review intends to underline the scientific nature of biosemiotics, and to this purpose, it aims to prove (1) that the cell is a real semiotic system, (2) that the genetic code is a real code, (3) that evolution took place by natural selection and by natural conventions, and (4) that it was natural conventions, i.e., organic codes, that gave origin to the great novelties of macroevolution. Biological semiosis, in other words, is a scientific reality because the codes of life are experimental realities. The time has come, therefore, to acknowledge this fact of life, even if that means abandoning the present theoretical framework in favor of a more general one where biology and semiotics finally come together and become biosemiotics.     

基于RS和GIS的峨眉山风景区生态风险评价

风景区的生态风险评价有助于指导其村镇建设、产业发展和实现绿色生态可持续发展.为探究峨眉山风景区生态风险分布和主要影响因素,在RS(Remote Sensing,遥感)和GIS(Geographic Information System,地理信息系统)技术支持下,以2015年土地覆盖数据为基础,结合DEM、遥感影像数据,从自然灾害和人类干扰两方面分析生态风险,依据生态风险度量原理,通过计算风险发生概率和生态易损性求得生态风险值,利用克里金插值法求得峨眉山风景区生态风险空间分布.结果表明:①峨眉山风景区综合生态风险值较小,主要受自然灾害影响,其贡献率高达89.9%;人类干扰带来的影响也不可忽视,贡献率为10.1%.自然灾害中,干旱、地质灾害对风景区的影响较大,贡献率分别为40.9%、49.3%.②峨眉山风景区综合生态风险呈条带状分布,越往东综合生态风险值越大,自然灾害风险空间分布与其基本一致.综合生态风险高风险区聚集在万年寺、清音阁、神水阁景区,景区东部黄湾乡旅游镇属于人文风险高风险区.研究显示,峨眉山风景区综合生态风险主要受到自然灾害影响,存在带状分异的空间规律.      

LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN NONPOINT SOURCE PHOSPHORUS ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Existing land use data were used to estimate nonpoint source phosphorus loads to Lake Champlain (Vermont/New York/Quebec) in a loading function model that combined P concentration coefficients with regional hydrologic data. The estimates were verified against monitored loading data, then used to assess the relative magnitudes of contributions from major land uses and regions of the Lake Champlain Basin. The Basin is comprised of 62 percent forest, 28 percent agricultural land, 3 percent urban land, and 7 percent water. The best-fit model estimated an annual total P load of 457 mt/year, which did not differ significantly from the 458 metric tons/year measured for an average hydrologic year, and accurately predicted loads from major tributaries. Agriculture contributes 66 percent of the annual nonpoint source P load to Lake Champlain; urban and forest land contribute 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Because agricultural land contributes most nonpoint source P to Lake Champlain, load reduction effort must deal with agricultural sources. However, because the urban 3 percent of the basin contributes 18 percent of the estimated load, high load reduction efficiencies might be achieved by addressing urban sources. This assessment clearly demonstrated the relationship between land use and P loads in the Lake Champlain Basin, a prerequisite for policy-makers to endorse a P management strategy requiring changes in land use and management.     

南水北调对湖北丹江口水库区土地资源的影响

湖北省丹江口水库区是南水北调中线工程的水源区。随着调水工程的实施,库区土地资源将受到深远的影响。以丹江口水库及其四周海拔低于２００ｍ的区域为研究范围,选用９０年代初获取的ＬａｎｄｓａｔＴＭ假彩色合成图像为主信息源,运用目视判读和地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）方法,对该区的土地资源利用现状进行了比例尺为２５万分之一的遥感制图和计算机面积量算;在此基础上,对工程实施后本区土地资源的淹没损失、土地利用结构的变化进行了宏观分析,进而对区域土地资源的合理利用进行了初步探讨。     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

工业污染源地理信息系统研究

建立工业污染源地理信息系统 ,对加强工业污染源管理具有非常重要的现实意义 ,本文通过对系统的构成、功能和技术特点等方面的研究 ,阐述了地理信息系统在环境管理领域的具体应用方法。     

网络技术在环境保护中的应用

探讨开发基于新一代B／S计算模式的环保信息管理系统，增强信息技术在环保中的应用，最大限度地实现信息资源共享，为环保管理与决策提供数据支持与服务。     

Environmental breaches and resource losses in a Mexican biosphere reserve and development of a simple resource management model

SUMMARY

The causes for environmental breaches producing losses to the forest resources in the biosphere reserve Mariposa Monarca in Mexico have been investigated, mainly using methods of spatial analysis. It was demonstrated that the availability of forest resources themselves does not affect the frequency of breaches but does have consequences on the amount of resource loss per breach. Furthermore, a strong dependency on the traffic ways was demonstrated. The larger the distance to the traffic ways, the lower is the frequency of breaches. This behaviour could be described mathematically and led to the result that 38% of the breaches can be considered as caused by traffic ways. A weak dependency on the number of inhabitants could be found but no dependency on socioeconomic parameters. Taking into account the results of this analysis, a simple resource management model was developed, using a differential equation. It estimates the future development of natural resources. The model is implemented in a Geographic Information System. Sample calculations underline the importance of the supervising actions and show the possibilities of the model with respect to the measures that have to be taken to preserve natural resources in a supervised national park.