煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用:模型·实证

为研究煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用,基于系统动力学原理构建一般情况下煤炭开采对生态系统功能胁迫作用的系统动力学模型,分析不同情境下煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用特征,并以淮河流域典型煤炭资源型城市——淮南市为例进行实证研究. 结果表明:煤炭开采对生态系统功能有胁迫作用,政府是重要影响因素;不同情境下煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用不同,表现为情境一(理想状态)<情境二(良性状态)<情境三(一般状态)<情境四(停滞状态)<情境五(糟糕状态);生态治理投资系数和煤炭开采技术投资系数的比值越大,则煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用越小. 实证结果通过有效性检验,表明该研究建立的系统动力学模型具有可靠性. 当前淮南市生态治理投资和煤炭开采技术投资的比值为0.511,表明淮南市生态系统功能系统和煤炭开采系统处于一般状态. 研究显示,政府在维持生态系统功能稳态中发挥着一定作用. 煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用特征:当生态治理投资系数和煤炭开采技术投资系数的比值为0时,生态系统功能系统和煤炭开采系统处于糟糕状态;当比值为(0,1)时,处于一般状态;当比值为1时,处于良性状态;当比值大于1时,两大系统进入理想状态.      

Management of sustainability transitions through planning in shrinking resource city contexts: an evaluation of Yubari City,Japan

This paper evaluates the planning competences required to enact a managed transition to sustainability at the municipal level for cities facing population, economic and employment decline. Drawing on the ‘shrinking cities’ literature, we argue consolidation of the built environment can become a focal point for sustaining citizen welfare when transitioning cities that are facing decline, especially those previously reliant on resource industries. We evaluate the former coal mining city of Yubari, Japan, which is developing a consolidated urban form with the aim of creating a ‘sustainable’ future city. Findings from interviews and content analysis of Yubari’s planning policy indicate, however, that to translate ‘shrinking’ a city into a managed transition, spatial planning must be accompanied by a wider range of social policy measures and strong cross-sectoral engagement. We also caution that the unique geographical and political context of Yubari mean its model may not be directly replicable in other contexts.     

城市热环境及其微热环境的改善

以苏南５市县３０年来热环境诸因素的变化资料为依据,分析城市区域特征所引起的热环境诸因素的变化趋势,介绍包括规划城市区域的道路网,控制建筑物布局的密度,以及城市绿化和水面等在内的城市规划和建筑设计措施对于改善城市区域微热环境的效用。     

额济纳绿洲生态环境演变的研究

根据实地考察和资料分析,对内蒙古额济纳绿洲生态环境的演变进行了研究,并提出防止绿洲生态环境退化的措施     

New indicator approaches for effective urban air quality management

Measurements of urban air quality at monitoring stations in developed countries have frequently involved the criteria gaseous pollutants, particulates, hazardous air pollutants, perceived air quality and relevant meteorological conditions. Large numbers of indicators have therefore been established to quantify emissions, concentrations and environmental and human health impacts of each of these groups of substances. To simplify the data for management, several indicators have been grouped together to form urban air quality indices but the weightings of individual variables is contentious. In industrialising and developing countries, data may be limited and traditional air pollutant indicators cannot often be constructed. The emphasis therefore has to be placed on the development of policy-relevant indicators, such as Response Indicators that reflect different policy principles for regulating air pollutant emissions. Indices that quantify the air quality management capabilities and capacities at the city level provide further useful decision-relevant tools. Four sets of indices, namely, 1. air quality measurement capacity, 2. data assessment and availability, 3. emissions estimates, and 4. management enabling capabilities, and a composite index to evaluate air quality management capability, were constructed and applied to 80 cities. The indices revealed that management capability varied widely between the cities. In some of the cities, existing national knowledge on urban air quality could have been more effectively used for management. It was concluded that for effective urban air quality management, a greater emphasis should be given, not just to monitoring and data capture programmes, but to the development of indicators and indices that empower decision-makers to initiate management response strategies. Over-reliance on restricted, predetermined sets of traditional air quality indicators should be avoided.     

Climate pioneership and leadership in structurally disadvantaged maritime port cities

ABSTRACT

Innovative climate governance in small-to-medium-sized structurally disadvantaged cities (SDCs) are assessed. Considering their deeply ingrained severe economic and social problems it would be reasonable to assume that SDCs act primarily as climate laggards or at best as followers. However, novel empirical findings show that SDCs are capable of acting as climate pioneers. Different types and styles of climate leadership and pioneership and how they operate within multi-level and polycentric governance structures are identified and assessed. SDCs seem relatively readily willing to adopt transformational climate pioneership styles to create ‘green’ jobs, for example, in the offshore wind energy sector and with the aim of improving their poor external image. However, in order to sustain transformational climate pioneership they often have to rely on support from ‘higher’ levels of governance. For SDCs, there is a tension between learning from each other’s best practice and fierce economic competition in climate innovation.     

Cities as leaders in EU multilevel climate governance: embedded upscaling of local experiments in Europe

ABSTRACT

The success of local climate governance in Europe depends not only on leading cities but also on the dynamics between leaders, followers, and laggards. Upscaling local experiments helps to close the gap between these actors. This process is driven by the increasing embeddedness of cities and their networks in EU multilevel governance. Embedded upscaling combines horizontal upscaling between leading cities with vertical upscaling between leaders and followers that is mediated by higher levels of government, and hierarchical upscaling that even reaches the laggards. Various types of upscaling, their combinations, and their impacts are analyzed. Networks have become denser and networking has intensified. City networks and their member cities have become embedded in national and EU governance, lost authority and depend more and more on regional, national, and European authorities.     

基于SPI指数的1981—2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征

依据内蒙古地区47 个地面观测站1981—2010 年降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为干旱指标,分析了内蒙古地区年度和四季干旱发生的频率、干旱强度和站次比(发生干旱站数与总站数之比) 的演变特点。结果表明:年度、秋季和冬季干旱强度变化趋势不明显,春、夏季干旱强度呈显著上升的趋势;近30 a 来年尺度上干旱强度表现为轻度干旱,四季干旱强度以轻度干旱为主;年、季尺度上干旱发生的覆盖范围为局域性干旱和区域性干旱;内蒙古东北部呼伦贝尔盟是年度干旱、中旱、重旱与特旱发生频率最高地区,而西部阿拉善盟地区干旱、中旱、重旱和特旱发生的频率相对较低;从季节上来看,内蒙古全区春、冬季干旱(含中、重和特旱)发生频率较为一致,表现为西部及西南部地区干旱发生的频率较低,而东部、中部、北部地区干旱发生的频率相对较高。     

Distribution characteristics of phosphorus forms in the sand-dust and the desert particles in Inner Mongolia and its environmental significance

根据我国中路沙尘暴的影响范围和移动路径,应用颗粒物中磷的连续浸提技术,选择研究了8个站位的颗粒物样品中磷的赋存形态和分布特征.研究结果表明,各粒级样品中无机磷（IP）含量范围在300.16—1916.99μg.g-1,占总磷（TP）比率86.11%—99.84%,TP含量主要受IP控制,有机磷（POrg）含量远低于IP,彼此之间表现为负相关关系;沙尘粒子Y1—Y4（呼和浩特,2005年—2010年沙尘暴期间收集）的TP、IP、生物可交换磷（BP）和可交换态磷（Pex）含量远高于沙尘暴源地及沿途地区地表颗粒物,这与沙尘暴源地及影响区域磷污染状况及地质环境条件关系密切;粒径小于57μm的颗粒物样品的TP、IP、PCa含量均高于自然粒径颗粒物样品.     

内蒙古经济发展与环境污染之间关系的检验

利用内蒙古1986-2009年间的6类环境污染指标和人均GDP数据,基于VAR计量技术,通过变量平稳性和协整检验,Granger因果检验和脉冲响应分析对经济增长与环境污染的关系及其动态性进行了实证研究。结果显示:①当内蒙古粉尘排放量增长率、 工业固体废弃物产生量增长率、 工业二氧化硫排放量增长率和工业烟尘排放量增长率各增加1%时,人均GDP分别降低0.068%、 0.411%、 0.380%以及0.418%;当工业废气排放量增长率和工业废水排放量增长率分别增加1%时,人均GDP分别上升1.305%和1.601%。②人均GDP变化是工业固体废弃物产生量和工业废气排放量变化的Granger原因,但各污染物排放并不是人均GDP变化的Granger原因,这与研究期间内蒙古处于工业化尤其是工业中的采矿业发达的事实吻合。③人均GDP增长率对来自环境变量增长率的冲击影响其响应表现为在第1期均为0,从长期响应来看,给粉尘和废水排放增长率一个正的冲击,人均GDP增长率的响应为持续的降低;对来自废气排放增长率冲击响应函数图在前4期表现出"增长-降低-增长"的趋势,而在后6期表现为缓缓下降;对来自固体废弃物产生量增长率和二氧化硫排放量增长率冲击响应不明显;对来自烟尘排放量增长率的冲击其响应在第2期达到最大值,随后也呈递减趋势。④从方差分析的结果看,不考虑GDP自身的贡献率,内蒙古环境污染指标排放增长率对人均GDP增长率贡献率较小,而在不考虑内蒙古各个环境污染指标排放增长率自身的贡献率的情况下,内蒙古人均GDP增长率对环境污染指标排放的增长率的贡献较高。这进一步说明了内蒙古环境各污染因子排放量的增多并没有大幅度促进人均GDP的增长,但是人均GDP增长却带动了工业污染物排放的增长。