Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

A study on the factor market distortion and the carbon emission scale effect of two-way FDI

Based on the data of 30 Chinese provinces for the period from 2004 to 2015, this paper expounds the carbon emissions effect of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) from the perspective of scale effect and factor market distortions. This study uses Kaya identity to decompose carbon emission and construct simultaneous equations model to empirically examine the factor market distortion and the carbon emission scale effect of two-way FDI. The results show that the inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) increase regional carbon emission through scale effect and also exacerbates factor market distortion in China, whereas the outward FDI trends reduce carbon emission and reduces factor market distortions in China. The study also shows that human capital, research and development (R&D), trade openness, and capital accumulation are important determinants of two-way FDI. Therefore, the study proposes that IFDI policies should focus on acquiring green technologies. In addition, the domestic enterprises should be encouraged to participate in global business.     

面向可持续发展的国家投资策略

可持续发展战略逼迫投资创新,呼唤着新的国家投资策略。本文分析了可持续发展与投资创新的关系,系统地研究了可持续发展的投资策略,讨论了可持续发展的投资结构问题,有针对性地提出了可持续发展的投资政策建议。     

流域水权市场中的节水激励

流域水权制度是否具有内在的节水激励是能否纾缓一个国家或地区水资源危机的关键.水权再分配机制是水权制度的重要组成部分,而水权市场则是水权再分配机制的方式之一.该文通过构建节水投资收益净现值(NPV)模型,分析水权市场对节水激励的作用,讨论各因素对不同层次用水户进行节水投资决策的不同影响,并且应用节水投资收益净现值模型对黄河流域进行了案例分析.分析表明:有效的流域水权市场能够激励用水者进行节水投资,获得水权交易收益,同时缓解水资源供需矛盾,实现流域水资源的优化配置;跨地区跨行业的水权交易由于规模大,需要的投资金额多,交易成本较高,只能由较高级别的水资源管理机构或取水工程完成,但需要采取适当的节水设施管理方式;地区内行业内的水权交易规模小,需要的投资金额少,交易成本低.对于微观用水户具有激励作用,但需要政府提供相应的信贷支持.     

中国环境保护的政策框架及其投资重点

本文分析了中国环境面临的严峻挑战 ,论述了中国环境政策框架的演变和完善过程 ,介绍了中国环境保护的投资重点。     

农地流转背景下地块规模对农户种粮投入影响分析

近年来粮食安全受到国家和社会的广泛关注,农地投入作为粮食生产的重要要素,是保障粮食稳定产出的前提。学者就农地规模对农户种粮投入的影响已进行了较多研究,但受农地流转的影响,土地要素更具多样化,土地规模与农户种粮投入的关系发生变化。随着农地流转在我国的快速发展,探析农地流转影响下土地规模对农户种粮投入影响的变化成为一个亟待研究的问题,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。考虑到地块的异质性,本文基于山东、河南、安徽三个粮食主产省622户农户1 284个地块的粮食生产数据从村庄和农户两个层次控制了生产要素市场价格、地块要素等非主观因素,进行多层模型回归分析。结果表明,农地流转特征及地块特征对农户粮食生产单位面积投入有显著影响。地块规模和转入地占比对农地投入影响为负,转入地占比越大,地权稳定性越低,农户投入积极性受到挫伤越明显,在转入地上的投入减少。随着转入土地面积的增加,农户从事粮食生产的机会成本增大,使其有更强的动力增加种粮投入,地块规模的负向影响程度降低。基于分析结果,本文得出以下3点结论:(1)规模化经营有利于降低单位面积种粮成本;(2)农地流转发生时,地块规模对种粮投入的影响发生改变,成片规模化经营将成为我国粮食生产的必然趋势;(3)提高土地综合条件可以降低投入成本,并提高农户投入积极性。要保障国家粮食安全,需从降低种粮成本、提高农户收益着手,建议鼓励农村土地流转,推动粮食规模化生产,同时也要注重增加财政拨款,建设高标准粮田,强化高标准粮田的农业基础设施建设,完善田间配套工程。     

基于DEA的城市群环境投入产出效率测度研究

随着产业集群、人口城镇化的发展,我国城市群逐渐形成,城市群的环境污染治理问题也成为影响城镇居民生产生活的重要社会问题.目前,城市群的资金投入与环境污染治理的效率,投入产出中的环境变量对环境污染治理的影响,城市群环境污染治理的效果等问题是我们亟需认知的.基于这些思考,以我国十大城市群环境污染与资金投入的统计数据为实例,采用三阶段数据包络分析(DEA)模型,运用DEA模型的计算软件,基于传统的DEA模型、相似SFA模型和调整后的DEA模型三个步骤进行了探讨.从投入产出的角度对我国十大城市群环境污染治理的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率进行了实证分析.结果表明:十大城市群在环境投资与污染治理效率方面存在差异性,以京津冀、长三角、珠三角和山东半岛为代表的东部沿海城市群在投入产出效率上高于其他几个城市群,同时也显示我国十大城市群在环境污染治理效率上还有一定的提升空间.最后,提出了十大城市群在环境投资与污染治理方面的思考.     

The effect of recycling price uncertainty on municipal waste management choices

This paper analyzes the effect of price uncertainty and irreversible investment on the decision of municipalities to switch from landfill waste disposal to recycling by developing a model to predict recycling adoption behavior and applying it to empirical data. It is shown that uncertainty regarding the price of recycled materials may induce a risk neutral municipality to prefer landfill disposal, even when recycling is less expensive. A model is developed to describe the switching process and estimate its parameters using empirical data from 79 municipalities in Israel. The model is then used to predict municipalities' recycling adoption decisions under various assumptions regarding price uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis that price uncertainty is a major obstacle for recycling. Finally, several options for price stabilization are sketched and it is argued that these policies may be effective in establishing viable recycling markets.     

The whole relationship between environmental variables and firm performance: Competitive advantage and firm resources as mediator variables

The examination of the possible direct link between environmental protection and firm performance in the literature has generally produced mixed results. The present paper contributes to the literature by using the resource-based view as a mediating process in this relationship. The study specifically tests whether or not the resource-based view of the firm mediates the positive relationships of proactive environmental management and improved environmental performance with competitive advantage, which also has consequences for financial performance. We also check the possible link between the adoption of a pioneering approach and good environmental management practices. Our findings support that early investment timing and intensity in environmental issues impact on the adoption of a proactive environmental management, which in turn helps to improve environmental performance. The findings also show that a firm's resources and competitive advantage act as mediator variables for a positive relationship between environmental protection and financial performance. This contribution is original because the present paper develops a comprehensive whole picture of this path process, which has previously only been partially discussed in the literature. In addition, this study clarifies a relevant point in the literature, namely that the effect of environmental protection on firm performance is not direct and can vary depending on the sector considered. Whereas competitive advantage in relation to costs influences financial performance in the IPPC law sector, the relevant influence in the hotel sector comes from competitive advantage through differentiation.     

桥梁安全综合评价体系构建及重心法评价研究

目前桥梁安全综合评价研究并不成熟,在分析了桥梁安全综合评价应该考虑的主要因素的基础上,提出并确立了桥梁安全综合评价体系.探讨了应用模糊重心决策法进行桥梁安全综合评价的实现过程,为桥梁安全管理人员和安监部门理性决策提供理论依据.