SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析

以滇西南地区为研究区,计算出近53 a该区及周边44个气象站点标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化降水指数(SPI)。运用M-K突变检测和Morlet小波交换等方法,对滇西南地区两种指数对应下的4种类型季节连旱变化特征进行系统分析。结果表明:近53 a中,两种指数判定的同一时间尺度下的干旱事件次数和发生时间基本统一,4种类型季节连旱事件为12~14次,多存在并发性;4个季节连旱时段上两种指数均存在3 a左右显著周期变化;同一时段上,两种指数在趋势变化格局空间分布和变化程度上均存在着较大差异,4个时段上的干湿变化趋势也表现出SPEI呈变干趋势,SPI则变干、变湿各为一半的明显不同,这主要是由于期间研究区显著增温加剧了"降水量-蒸散"的水分平衡;与SPI相比,SPEI考虑了热量因子对潜在蒸散发的贡献,能较好地对气候变暖背景下研究区干旱进行刻画。     

A DECISION MODEL TO PREDICT SEDIMENT YIELD FROM FOREST PRACTICES1

ABSTRACT: In order to choose among “best management practices,” forest managers need to predict sediment yield to perennial streams following various forest land operations. The “universal soil loss equation” (USLE) is not directly applicable to forest operations because of the heterogenous soil surface conditions left by harvesting, site preparation, and planting. A sediment hazard index is proposed, to be based on the amount of exposed mineral soil and its proximity to streams. The model offered includes rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility and average land slope, together with the index W. A paired watershed experiment in the central Georgia Piedmont was used to estimate parameters in the model. The experimental basin (80 acres) was clearcut, drum roller chopped twice, and planted by machine. The standard error of estimate of sediment yield was computed to be about 50/lbs/ac per sampling period (four months). Use of William's erogivity index (storm flow times peak flow) reduced the standard error to 33/lbs/ac.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mucopolysaccharidosis by two-dimensional electrophoresis of amniotic fluid glycosaminoglycans

Amniotic fluid from 72 pregnancies at risk for mucopolysaccharidosis have been analysed for glycosaminoglycans (GAG) by means of two-dimensional electrophoresis. Definite results were obtained in all cases and required only 3 days to report. Of the 66 cases for which GAG analysis was accompanied by enzyme assays on cultured amniotic fluid cells, there was agreement of results in 65. In the one case of disagreement the result of GAG analysis proved to be correct. Fourteen pregnancies were predicted to be affected and the predictions were confirmed by studies on fetal tissues and/or cultured cells, or in one case the birth of an affected infant. Of the 58 pregnancies predicted to be unaffected, 48 have so far gone to term and produced healthy infants. There have been no false negative predictions. The analytical method is simple, rapid, and, in this study, has been found completely reliable for prenatal diagnosis.     

华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估的初步研究

作者在本文中探讨了利用风险分析进行气象灾害影响评估的方法。根据华北地区冬小麦干旱的特点，确定了小麦各发育阶段在有限灌溉条件下的干旱指标及发生概率。利用ＦＡＯ产量与水分关系模型，计算出干旱引起的减产率，并综合考虑当地抗灾性能和承灾体密度，得到冬小麦各发育阶段及全生育期的干旱风险度，进行分级定量评估。为小麦持续高产稳产决策提供科学依据。     

ROLE OF BASEFLOW IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATIONS1

ABSTRACT. The role of initial baseflow, or the baseflow at the beginning of storm precipitation, in modifying mathematical rainfall-runoff relations is analyzed by using data from 95 storms over a drainage basin in Illinois. A regression model is set up with total runoff, surface runoff, baseflow runoff, and peak flow as dependent variables, and storm precipitation, initial baseflow, effective and total storm durations, and highest and lowest temperatures during the storm as independent variables. Stepwise regression analyses show that storm precipitation and initial baseflow are the most important variables for making dependent variable estimates. The standard error estimates using only storm precipitation and initial baseflow as predictors show a seasonal trend with a peak in July, August, or September. An understanding of the role of baseflow as an indicator of average soil moisture condition over the basin can be of great help in short-term reservoir regulation and flood warning.     

ACUTE TOXICITY OF PICRIC ACID AND PICRAMIC ACID TO RAINBOW TROUT,SALMO GAIRDNERI,AND AMERICAN OYSTER,CRASSOSTREA VIRGINICA1

ABSTRACT Picric acid (2,4,6-trinitrophenol) and picramic acid (2-amino-4,6-dinitrophenol) are potential water pollutents due to a variety of industrial and munition uses. The possible impacts of picric and picramic acid to two recreationally and commercially important species, rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, and American oysters, Crassostrea virginica, were evaluated. Picramic acid was more toxic than picric acid to both species tested. The 96-h LC50s for picric and picramic acids for rainbow trout were 109.6 and 46.2 mg/1, respectively. The 144-h LC50s for picric and picramic acid for American oysters were 254.9 and 69.8 mg/1, respectively. Sublethal no growth EC50s and shell deposition EC50s for oysters showed that both compounds caused adverse effects at much lower concentrations than indicated by the LC50s. For example, the 144-h shell deposition EC50s were 27.9 mg/1 for picric acid and 5.6 mg/1 for picramic acid. Sediment adsorbtion studies in estuarine water indicated that both compounds are not readily adsorbed which suggests that sediment would not play a major role as a sink in contaminated systems. Oysters, which filter large quantities of particulate matter, would more likely be affected by picric and picramic acids in the water column than by exposure to contaminated sediment.     

A SURVEY OF STATE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS IN THE U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Adequate water supplies are critical to the maintenance of a community's health and economic well-being. Across the nation communities are struggling to meet an expanding demand for water from municipal, industrial, agricultural, recreation, water quality, and power generation users. As the demand grows and communities actively compete with one another for a limited water supply, states are being called upon to help solve the problem. One possible solution that is being used in many areas is the development and implementation of a water conservation program to stretch the limited supply as far as possible. using a mailed survey, state water conservation programs and some of the characteristics of the different programs were documented. Responses to the nationwide survey were obtained from all 50 states. The specific water conservation program elements on which information was received from the survey included laws and restricted use, community assistance, education, research, and other services. Recommendations for states developing or considering the development of a water conservation program are outlined.     

论人类与旱涝灾害相互作用的关系

本文以旱涝灾害与农业发展为主线，对人类与旱涝灾害的关系进行了分析．全文由两部分组成：①探讨了在人类的不同发展阶段，旱涝灾害对人类特别是农业生产的作用形式；②就旱涝灾害对人类社会的破坏作用及其时间和空间特点等进行了分析．     

DISPERSION MODEL FOR A STREAM WITH SEVERAL WASTE INPUTS AND WATER INTAKES1

An analytical solution is developed to predict the BOD and DO profiles in a stream having several outfalls of waste and intakes of water. The model also incorporates continuous addition and removal of BOD and DO along the stream. A steady state one dimensional dispersion model is used to describe the transport of BOD and DO in a stream. Changes in stream properties along the length are considered by dividing the stream into several segments and changing the parameters of the BOD and DO equations as needed in each segment. By applying continuity equations at the boundaries of these segments and equilibrium conditions at either ends of the infinitely long stream, the arbitrary constants in the solutions to the differential equations for BOD and DO can be determined. Some applications of the results in studying water pollution problems are illustrated.     

Towards the harmonization of water-related policies for managing drought risks across the EU

Drought is recognized as a major issue in the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean region, posing risks to the environment as well as to local and regional economies. The EU policy on water management is continuously evolving, particularly in relation to water scarcity and drought. Starting with the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which sets the general policy framework for water management across the EU, the EC Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007) 414 final set the priorities for managing water scarcity and drought risks. Three follow-up reports (COM(2008) 875 final, COM(2010) 228 final and COM(2011) 133) highlighted achievements and yearly progress within the context of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, whereas guidance has further been provided through the issue of Technical Reports (e.g. the EC Water Scarcity Drafting Group Technical Report 2008–023 on Drought Management, Including agricultural, drought indicators and climate change aspects). The 2012 EU Water Review (“Blue Print for Safeguarding European Waters” will assess achievements and identify further requirements towards long-term sustainable water use across the EU. However, a harmonized approach on drought risk management at the EU level is still lacking, whereas drought risk in several countries and regions has not been yet fully integrated in water management and relevant sectoral policies.This paper focuses on a proposed paradigm shift from crisis to risk management, which is currently gaining ground as a means of reducing societal vulnerability to droughts. The paper underlines the importance of engaging into risk assessment and management practices and identifies policy gaps and requirements for further improvement of the drought management policy framework at all levels of governance: at the EU, at the national and at the river basin and regional levels.