长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究

泥石流敏感性分析对灾害分析评价预测具有重要作用。文章以长江上游为研究区,选择坡度、相对高差、地层岩性、年降雨量、地震烈度等5方面因素为评价因子,探讨运用GIS技术管理分析泥石流灾害信息和区域泥石流敏感性分析的方法。量化评价因子的作用分值大小,有效表达泥石流敏感性指数(DFSI),进而,结合空间分析与条件概率模型,实现了区域泥石流敏感性分析并制作了泥石流敏感性专题图。长江上游地区泥石流敏感性区域具有一定的规律性,高度敏感区主要分布在第一级阶梯与第二级阶梯的过渡地带,比较集中的区域有雅砻江中下游、安宁河、小江、普渡河、大渡河中下游、理塘河、白龙江、岷江上游、涪江上游等干支流的5～10 km范围内;中度敏感区主要分布在高度敏感区的外围约10～30 km范围内。利用历史泥石流资料验证,表明已经发生的泥石流主要分布在泥石流敏感性指数较高地区,说明敏感性分析的结果基本反映出研究区泥石流敏感性特性。     

再生水灌溉土壤人工合成麝香累积模型模拟

人工合成麝香(HHCB/AHTN)是近几年来受关注较多的药品与个人护理品(PPCPs)类新型污染物之一,再生水灌溉是HHCB/AHTN输入土壤的主要途径.本研究结合再生水灌溉土壤的实地检测结果,采用HYDRUS-1D模型,模拟了长期灌溉再生水条件下土壤中HHCB和AHTN的迁移转化和累积趋势.结果表明,尽管土壤中这两种麝香的含量极低,但是再生水灌溉土壤中的含量是自来水灌溉土壤的5倍;再生水灌溉下HHCB/AHTN累积趋势从lgKoc较低为3.44时的指数型增加,到lgKoc较高为4.12和4.86时的线性增加;半衰期的变化对再生水灌溉途径输入土壤的HHCB/AHTN的表层累积影响并不明显;再生水灌溉下土壤中HHCB/AHTN的垂直迁移能力较小,灌溉40 a以后最大迁移距离只有53 cm,且受Koc变化的影响较大;通过灌溉水途径进入土壤的HHCB和AHTN通过生物降解与植物吸收途径消解的比例较低,最高只占输入总量的7.69%,但是随着lgKoc的减小和灌溉时间增加,通过生物降解和根系吸收的消解率增加.本研究结果能够为准确评估再生水灌溉途径引起的土壤中人工合成麝香HHCB/AHTN的生态风险提供依据.     

基于公路网络的长江三角洲旅游景点可达性格局研究

论文运用GIS软件,定量分析了长江三角洲旅游景点可达性。通过分析发现:长江三角洲旅游景点资源的可达性较好,整个区域的平均可达性时间为25.89 min,景点的可达性在30 min以内的区域达到了69.79%,可达性空间分布具有明显的交通指向性,人文景点可达性好的区域相对于自然景点更加集中。并以县域为统计单元,分析了所有景点、人文景点、自然景点三种类型的空间关联情况,均呈弱集聚格局,可达性热点区域的分布都表现为以上海为核心的圈层结构,冷点区域分布在长江三角洲区域的外围地区。在上述分析的基础上,将影响景点可达性的因素归纳为4个,即:旅游景点分布、路网结构的地区差异、自然环境和人文环境。     

Spatial distribution of ecological security status assessment of West-Liaohe River based on geographic information system

Eco-security assessment is a hot research area in resource and environmental science, which involves data with much spatial, non-linear, and random features. Geographic information system (GIS), as a useful tool to analyze and manage spatial information, has a superior advantage in this field. A case study in the western part of the Liaohe River featuring a method of eco-security spatial differences (ESSD) based on GIS is developed in this paper. The method includes four steps: 1) developing the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) framework with site data; 2) digitizing West-Liaohe River and setting its GRID database of ecosecurity assessment indicators; 3) figuring out the relative membership degree (RMD) of eco-security indicators by using the analytical hierarchy process with the weight of indicator; 4) classifying the security zone and mapping the assessment result of eco-security status in grid by GIS method of assigning and clustering. The visual spatial differences of eco-security based on GIS enables decision makers to know the status of eco-security better in making policies for achieving sustainability. __________ Translated from Environmental Science, 2005, 26(5): 28–33 [译自: 环境科学]     

西辽河不同粒级沉积物的氨氮吸附-解吸特征

为估算辽河吸附态氨氮入海通量,采用平衡吸附-解吸法研究了西辽河不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征. 结果表明:不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征均符合Langmuir和Freundlich吸附-解吸等温式;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮饱和吸附量较大,分别为3 643.82和2 693.71 mg/kg,相当于粗砂的8.04和5.94倍;西辽河冲泻质泥沙黏粒和粉粒所携载的吸附态氨氮的入海通量分别为170.10和164.52 mg/kg. 占沉积物氨氮吸附总量的14.99%;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮解吸比例较小,分别为30.66%和42.04%,入海后可分别为上覆水提供氨氮52.15和69.16 mg/kg;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物所吸附的氨氮是氮素循环的重要组成部分;黏粒和粉粒级沉积物的腐殖质含量远远高于粗沙,在其所形成的团聚体结构中存在的孔隙填充方式——氨氮吸附是导致黏粒和粉粒级沉积物饱和吸附量较大、解吸比例较低的根本原因.      

第二松花江下游居民发汞水平及影响因素分析

20世纪60年代第二松花江汞污染十分严重.为了解第二松花江流域的环境现状,在第二松花江下游的五家站镇收集了250名居民的头发样品,用冷蒸气原子吸收法测定头发样品中的总汞含量.头发样品中w(总汞)为0.110～116.634 mg/kg,平均为2.205 mg/kg.在250份样品中,有77人头发中总汞(简称发汞)含量超过了美国环境保护局制定的1mg/kg的限值,占总人数的30.8%,说明在第二松花江下游地区仍有人群发生汞中毒的风险.在影响发汞含量的因素中,发汞含量与性别、年龄、身高、体重没有相关关系;经常吃鱼人群的发汞含量大于不常吃鱼人群;吸烟、饮酒、染发人群的发汞含量分别高于不吸烟、不饮酒、未染发人群.      

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.