A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

Knowledge production and the science–policy relation in Dutch soil policy: results from a survey on perceived roles of organisations

In this paper, we present results from a survey on the perceived roles of organisations on the production and transfer of knowledge in Dutch soil policy. The results are interpreted by applying three theoretical perspectives to this relation: technical communities, epistemic communities and Mode 2 knowledge production. The main research results show that, since the perceived roles of organisations in some cases do not match the intended roles, or are inconsistent, communication of roles by organisations in the policy field is not effective. A second conclusion is that the respondents advocated an increase in interaction among policy levels and between knowledge production and policymaking. From the results, it seems that the Dutch soil policy field is on its way to a mode of socially robust knowledge production, where knowledge production, knowledge transfer and policymaking are integrated. In order to further this development, the paper provides recommendations on the further integration of science and policy concerning soil policy in the Netherlands.With respect to the methodology of survey research on the interaction between science and policy, the paper illustrates the importance of the professional identities of the respondents. The professional identities of the respondents are an important explanatory variable for the perceived roles of organisations.     

环境数据库中的知识发现

介绍了数据库中知识发现的定义及其常用的发现方法，分析了数据库中知识发现的可能性和必要性，对能够发现的知识自理过程，可采用的方法进行了探讨。     

Judicious Use of Multiple Hypothesis Tests

Abstract:  When analyzing a table of statistical results, one must first decide whether adjustment of significance levels is appropriate. If the main goal is hypothesis generation or initial screening for potential conservation problems, then it may be appropriate to use the standard comparisonwise significance level to avoid Type II errors (not detecting real differences or trends). If the main goal is rigorous testing of a hypothesis, however, then an adjustment for multiple tests is needed. To control the familywise Type I error rate (the probability of rejecting at least one true null hypothesis), sequential modifications of the standard Bonferroni method, such as Holm's method, will provide more statistical power than the standard Bonferroni method. Additional power may be achieved through procedures that control the false discovery rate (FDR) (the expected proportion of false positives among tests found to be significant). Holm's sequential Bonferroni method and two FDR-controlling procedures were applied to the results of multiple-regression analyses of the relationship between habitat variables and the abundance of 25 species of forest birds in Japan, and the FDR-controlling procedures provided considerably greater statistical power.     

The interplay between knowledge and governance: Insights from the governance of recreational boating in the Dutch Wadden Sea area, 1981–2014

Through shifts toward interactive and participatory forms of environmental governance, knowledge dynamics may come into play that differ from those of traditional forms of policy-making. This paper investigates how shifts of environmental governance and knowledge are related. In order to do so, it reconstructs the development of the governance of recreational boating in the Dutch Wadden Sea on the empirical basis of interviews, document analysis, and a focus group. Moreover, it analyzes this development by means of an analytical framework that combines governance modes, knowledge systems and knowledge–governance interfaces. Our results show that in the last decades partly an accumulation and partly a sequence of various governance arrangements concerning recreational boating has occurred; this has entailed a shift from predominantly centralized governance to a combination of governance modes with a stronger emphasis on decentralized, interactive and self-governance. This shift has occurred together with an increasing prominence of qualitative local knowledge, stakeholders’ knowledge, and the integration of various forms of knowledge. Furthermore, a shift has taken place toward more participatory knowledge–governance interfaces. Our analysis suggests that environmental governance and knowledge are interconnected in various ways: the regulatory and epistemic aspects of environmental issues are bound up with each other, and governance and knowledge are coproduced and mutually constitutive. Key lessons from this analysis are that room for experimentation is an important factor in improving environmental governance, and that increasing stakeholder involvement in governance implies that new modes of jointly creating and exchanging knowledge may need to be taken into account.     

Not just a matter of knowledge. The Katrina debacle

The paper deals with hurricane Katrina, which hit the Gulf coast of the US at the end of August 2005, with disastrous consequences. The paper sketches the chronicle of the main events and deals with preparation and response in New Orleans, exploring the connection between knowledge and disaster management policies, in particular communication policy. The main failures in applying and sharing available information for preventing and limiting damage are attributed to lack of coordination between elected officials, authorities and agencies at all levels. The critical role of the media in shaping the perception of the event and the immediate response to it is also highlighted.     

煤矿事故隐患大数据处理与知识发现分析方法研究

为解决半结构化或非结构化文本型煤矿隐患数据利用难度大、挖掘深度不够的问题,首先运用六何分析方法对煤矿事故隐患大数据进行内容分析,确定隐患的描述维度及属性类别,实现文本型隐患数据的量化表达;之后根据隐患数据变量特征,采用对数线性模型进行隐患维度间交互的知识发现研究,探索煤矿事故隐患各维度间的交互效应。研究结果表明:基于“六何分析法+对数线性模型”的分析框架能够实现文本型隐患数据的结构化转换,有效揭示煤矿隐患各维度间的交互影响关系,实现隐性知识的显性化。     

试论跨世纪工程师的知识结构

针对二十一世纪我国对安全技术人员的需求，按照科学结构学的观点，提出未来安全工程师应具有辩证的安全观，扎实的安全基础理论知识，不仅有安全工程学方面的应用理论，还应有安全社会学、安全系统学、安全人体学、灾害模拟及仿真的应用理论。各专业的安全工程师，还应具备精通本专业安全技术的知识。此外，简述了跨世纪安全工程师的培养方式及途径。     

Formation of the resource concept in Japan: pre-war and post-war efforts in knowledge integration

The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the resource concept in modern Japan by highlighting key individuals who played major roles in communicating this idea to a wider audience during its formation and development between the 1910s and 1950s. Special attention will be paid to the effect of different historical contexts on interpretations of the term “resource”. The paper reveals how the integration of knowledge indispensable for achieving sustainability occurs. The orientation of resource policy was drastically different before and after World War II. In the pre-war period, the military government used the resource concept to create a comprehensive inventory of the nation’s military forces, and “resource” was thus a convenient term to neutralize the aggressive connotations of top-down military mobilization. After the turn to democratic principles in 1945, “resource” suddenly acquired a symbolic meaning as a means to serve the people. Despite these contrasts, however, pre and post-war resource concepts share a commonality in that the government acted as the centralizing force, providing a platform to integrate disparate knowledge under the resource concept. At a time when society itself is more prone to fragmentation, the resource concept, which played a significant role in unification in the past, should be re-examined. The history of the concept in Japan, particularly during the pre and post-war period up until the 1950s, contains a wealth of insights as to how this can be achieved.