陕西关中地区城市灾害评价

本文在详细分析关中地区六个大中城市的主要自然灾害和城市地质灾害的基础上，分别评价了各种灾害造成的经济损失，各个城市的灾害危险性、易损性和抗灾能力，并结合防灾对策对城市进行了综合分类。     

EFFECTIVENESS OF DROUGHT POLICIES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER MANAGEMENT1

During the 1976–77 drought, three principal mechanisms were used to reduce water use in Utah communities: price increases, maximum monthly use restrictions, and restrictions on outdoor watering times. A regression model was developed to explain observed changes in water use, with price, type of restriction, household size, and summer rainfall as independent variables. For an average system, a 1 percent increase in price would reduce water use by 0.07 to 0.09 percent. A 1 percent increase in outdoor watering time restriction reduces use by 0.064 to 0.075 percent. A 1 percent increase in quantity restrictions leads to a reduction in water use of 0.014 to 0.054 percent. The effectiveness of rationing policies is influenced by system characteristics. For example, outdoor watering time restrictions were less effective in systems with above average household size and below average monthly use.     

Agricultural land evaluation and site assessment in the United States: An introduction

The US Soil Conservation Service has developed an agricultural land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) system. The LESA system is being used by the US Department of Agriculture and other federal agencies to implement the Farmland Protection Policy Act of 1981. The LESA system and three case studies from the Pacific North-west are introduced in this article.Scientific Paper no. 7166, College of Agriculture and Home Economics Research Paper. Washington State University, Pullman, Washington. Project no. 0010.     

Against idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of integrated resource management

Integrated resource management (IRM) is currently implemented in many parts of the world. This article promotes a pragmatic interpretation and suggests that idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of IRM are not justified. Successful implementation and performance of IRM are primarily a function of the historical context into which a project is placed. A comparative analysis of several case studies in Western Canada provides evidence for this argument, and the results can be summarized in a conceptual model about integration in resource management. IRM is interpreted as a process of constructing an objective reality of integration for sectorial management decisions, and this construction involves the transformations of power structures. This article suggests several pragmatic conclusions for IRM practice.     

AGGREGATE MARGINAL RETURNS FROM WESTERN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Pressure is increasing in the western United States to reallocate water from irrigated agriculture to other competitive uses. Since water is normally allocated through water rights and not necessarily by the price system, the question of economic efficiency is a continual concern. Study results show that returns per acre-foot of water used in western irrigation are quite high and are closely tied to the livestock industry. Returns per acre-foot of water used for crops ranged from $60 to $1,500. When water was used to support livestock, returns per acre-foot ranged from $100 to $600. Clearly, losses of water supply that reduced irrigation production could also lower farm income significantly. Estimated returns also show what alternative uses would have to pay for water under competitive market conditions. Production elasticities are also shown for various states.     

NUTRIENT LOADS TO WISCONSIN LAKES: PART I. NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS EXPORT COEFFICIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Export coefficients (kg/km²/yr) for dissolved ortho-phosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), total inorganic nitrogen (TIN), and total nitrogen (TN) were derived for watersheds in Wisconsin using data bases available for 17 basins from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — National Eutrophication Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Three general land use categories, representative of most regions in Wisconsin, were established: forest, mixed, and agricultural. Data for the 17 basins indicated greater exports of OP. TP, TIN, and TN as the percentage of forest decreased and agriculture increased. These region-specific coefficients are compared to the values reported in the literature representing much broader areas of the U.S.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Water quality management worldwide

This article analyzes water quality on a global scale. An overview of the global water supply and demand situation is presented first, including regional and country information, as well as data on selected water use patterns. The focus then shifts to a discussion of water pollution, its various causes, impact, and remedies, with emphasis on legal and administrative solutions. Water pollution control expenditures and the resultant achievements are dealt with in the final third of the article, with projections to 1995. A wide variety of published sources was dovetailed to obtain a composite picture and most likely scenario; this was supplemented with primary interviews by the author conducted in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, and Oceania at the start of the 1980s.     

Fiscal incentives for Australian bushland

The clearing of over 80% of the native vegetation from Australian agricultural areas has contributed significantly to the degradation classification applied to more than half this land. Soil erosion, siltation, and salinity damage continue to increase yearly. This situation not only threatens the productivity of the farm sector but has contributed to the estimated loss of 78 species of native flora, endangerment of an additional 2206 species, and the loss of 20 species of Australia's marsupials.Private returns diverge from social returns because the action (or inaction) of farmers has an impact upon others, both now and in the future. There is justification, therefore, for the public sector to intervene on behalf of society in an attempt to influence private decision making for the social good. This article argues for increased incentives from the public sector in Australia to encourage the voluntary cooperation of farmers to improve the balance between development and conservation. In contrast to the essentially temporary nature of man-made measures such as flood-mitigating capital works, increasing the area set aside to native bushland offers scope for the permanent stewardship of the resource—land.     

Seasonal food use by white-tailed deer at Valley Forge National Historical Park,Pennsylvania, USA

Food habits of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were examined from January to November 1984 via fecal-pellet analysis at Valley Forge National Historical Park (VFNHP), which represents an island habitat for deer surrounded by extensive urbanization, in southeastern Pennsylvania. In addition, use of fields by deer was compared to food habits. Herbaceous vegetation (forbs, leaves of woody plants, and conifer needles) was the predominant food type in all seasons except fall. Acorns and graminoids (grasses and sedges) were important food resources in fall and spring, respectively. Use of woody browse (twigs) was similar among seasons. Field use was relatively high during fall, winter without snow cover (<20 cm), and spring when food resources in fields were readily available. In contrast, use of fields was lowest in summer when preferred woodland foods were available and in winter with snow cover when food in fields was not readily accessible. Patterns of food-type use by deer at VFNHP indicate the year-round importance of nonwoody foods and field habitats to deer populations on public lands such as national parks in the northeastern United States.