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11.
It is a common experience that public administrations tend to shy away from the explicit acknowledgment of quantitative risk
levels. Faced with extreme concentrations of population and of industrial activities, including LPG and liquid chlorine storage,
within a very small land area, Hong Kong has faced up to the issue of major man-made hazards by “thinking the unthinkable”
and adopting explicit risk guidelines. This article describes how these guidelines were developed and the arguments that led
to their adoption. It is emphasized that the risk guidelines are not rigid standards but simply a method of focusing decision
making and ensuring that any decision to contravene the guidelines is taken at an appropriately senior level in the administration.
The way in which the guidelines have been incorporated intimately into the planning and decision-making process is described
and details are given on how this has led to the implementation of a variety of measures that have greatly reduced both societal
and individual risk from certain types of chemical storage and chemical processing installations in Hong Kong.
The opinions in this paper represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Hong Kong Government. 相似文献
12.
Chen-Tung?Arthur?ChenEmail author James?T.?Liu Ben-Jei?Tsuang 《Regional Environmental Change》2004,4(1):39-48
Rapid economic and industrial development in Taiwan over the past five decades has elevated the islands standing and earned it a place in the group known as the Four Small Dragons of Asia. Such growth, however, has been at the expense of the environment. There are currently nearly 23 million people juggling for space on the small island of 35,873 km2. Aggravating the matter further, the central mountain ranges and hills take up 73.6% of the land area with some 156 peaks surpassing 3,000 m. As a result, most people live in coastal plains which amount to only 9,490 km2. Pressure to move people inland has led to road construction and deforestation, both of which have contributed to an already high denudation rate of topsoil. As a consequence of this, thirteen rivers in Taiwan are now ranked among the top 20 worldwide in terms of sediment yield. Aside from this, the frequency of both floods and droughts increased prior to 1990, perhaps because of deforestation and global warming. Fortunately, the new conservation-orientated forest management policy of 1991 has alleviated the problem, somewhat, and the occurrence of floods and droughts has since decreased. The problem of water shortage, however, has worsened because of the warming trend in atmospheric temperature. Damming may ameliorate the water shortage problem but may affect the shoreline stability, as well as the ecology and water quality in the estuaries. Furthermore, these detrimental effects may go far beyond the estuaries, and even fisheries on the continental shelves may be affected. 相似文献
13.
NOx emissions from biogenic sources in soils play a significant role in the gaseous loss of soil nitrogen and consequent changes in tropospheric chemistry. In order to investigate the characteristics of NOx fluxes and factors influencing these fluxes in degraded sandy grasslands in northern China, diurnal and spatial variations of NOx fluxes were measured in situ. A dynamic flux chamber method was used at eight sites with various vegetation coverages and soil types in the northern steppe of China in the summer season of 2010. Fluxes of NOx from soils with plant covers were generally higher than those in the corresponding bare vegetation-free soils, indicating that the canopy plays an important role in the exchange of NOx between soil and air. The fluxes of NOx increased in the daytime, and decreased during the nighttime, with peak emissions occurring between 12:00 and 14:00. The results of multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the diurnal variation of NOx fluxes was positively correlated with soil temperature (P < 0.05) and negatively with soil moisture content (P < 0.05). Based on measurement over a season, the overall variation in NOx flux was lower than that of soil nitrogen contents, suggesting that the gaseous loss of N fromthe grasslands of northern China was not a significant contributor to the high C/N in the northern steppe of China. The concentration of NOx emitted from soils in the region did not exceed the 1-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standard (0.25 mg/m3). 相似文献
14.
Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff. 相似文献
15.
We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps).
We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels
(Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative
information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for
linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows
are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although
the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually
advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for
the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income,
but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services,
and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic
value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for
a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage. 相似文献
16.
17.
In Great Britain, advice on land-use planning decisions in the vicinity of major hazard sites and pipelines is provided to Local Planning Authorities by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), based on quantified risk assessments of the risks to the public in the event of an accidental release. For potential exposures to toxic substances, the hazard and risk is estimated by HSE on the basis of a “toxic load”. For carbon dioxide (CO2), this is calculated from the time-integral of the gas concentration to the power eight. As a consequence of this highly non-linear dependence of the toxic load on the concentration, turbulent concentration fluctuations that occur naturally in jets or plumes of CO2 may have a significant effect on the calculated hazard ranges. Most dispersion models used for QRA only provide estimates of the time- or ensemble-averaged concentrations. If only mean concentrations are used to calculate the toxic load, and the effects of concentration fluctuations are ignored, there is a danger that toxic loads and hence hazard ranges will be significantly under-estimated.This paper explores a simple and pragmatic modification to the calculation procedure for CO2 toxic load calculations. It involves the assumption that the concentration fluctuates by a factor of two with a prescribed square-wave variation over time. To assess the validity of this methodology, two simple characteristic flows are analysed: the free jet and the dense plume (or gravity current). In the former case, an empirical model is used to show that the factor-of-two approach provides conservative estimates of the hazard range. In the latter case, a survey of the literature indicates that there is at present insufficient information to come to any definite conclusions.Recommendations are provided for future work to investigate the concentration fluctuation behaviour in dense CO2 plumes. This includes further analysis of existing dense gas dispersion data, measurements of concentration fluctuations in ongoing large-scale CO2 release experiments, and numerical simulations. 相似文献
18.
This study presents the modelling approach and impact assessment of different strategies for managing wetland water resources and groundwater dynamics of landscapes which are characterised by the hydrological interactions of floodplains and the adjacent lowlands. The assessment of such impacts is based on the analysis of simulation results of complex scenarios of land-use changes and changes of the density of the drainage-network. The method has been applied to the 198 km2 Lower Havel River catchment as a typical example of a lowland–floodplain landscape. The model used consists of a coupled soil water and groundwater model, where the latter one is additionally coupled to the surface channel network. Thus, the hydrological processes of the variable saturated soil zone as well as lateral groundwater flow and the interactions between surface water and groundwater are simulated in an integrated manner. The model was validated for several years of significantly different meteorological conditions. The comparison of lateral and vertical water balance components showed the dominance of lateral flow processes and the importance of the interactions between surface water and groundwater for the overall water balance and the hydrological state of that type of landscape.The simulation of land-use change scenarios showed only minor effects of land-use change on the water balance and groundwater recharge. Changes of groundwater recharge were particularly small within the wetland areas being part of the floodplain where interactions between surface water and groundwater are most pronounced. Alterations in vertical groundwater recharge were counter-balanced by the lateral interaction between groundwater and surface water. More significant deviations in groundwater recharge and storage were observed in the more peripheral areas towards the catchment boundaries which are characterised by greater groundwater distance from the surface and less intense of ground water–surface water interactions.However, the simulation results assuming a coarsening of the drainage network density showed the importance of drainage structure and geometry for the water balance: The removal of the artificial draining ditches in the floodplain would result in significant alterations of total groundwater recharge, i.e., less recharge from winter to early summer and an increase of groundwater recharge during summer and autumn. Furthermore the different effects of groundwater recharge alterations on the dynamics of groundwater stages within the wetland areas close to the floodplains compared to the more peripheral areas could be quantified. Finally, it will be discussed that a well-adjusted co-ordination of different management measures is required to reach a sustainable water resources management of such lowland–floodplain landscapes. 相似文献
19.
Nathália Nascimento Thales A. P. West Lisa Biber-Freudenberger Eráclito R. de Sousa-Neto Jean Ometto Jan Börner 《Journal of Land Use Science》2020,15(2-3):127-141
ABSTRACT Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km2 between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km2 over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change. 相似文献
20.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献