湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险评价

依据灾害系统理论,在综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体的基础上,从致灾因子、孕灾环境的自然属性和承灾体的社会属性两方面出发,以县级行政单元为基本评价单元,进行了湘江流域洪水灾害的综合风险评价。在综合考虑降雨量、地形以及历史上洪水灾害发生频次等自然因素的条件下,利用地图代数分析得到了湘江流域洪水灾害危险性评价图;在综合考虑人口密度、耕地面积百分比、人均GDP和单位面积水库和塘坝容量等社会经济指标的基础上,利用模糊综合评判法得到了湘江流域洪水灾害脆弱性评价图。在此基础上采取“乘”模型的计算公式,即风险=危险性×脆弱性,将湘江流域洪水灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险和低风险5个等级,并借助地理信息系统软件编制了湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险等级评价图。     

QUANTIFYING URBAN INTENSITY IN DRAINAGE BASINS FOR ASSESSING STREAM ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Three investigations are underway, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, to study the relation between varying levels of urban intensity in drainage basins and in‐stream water quality, measured by physical, chemical, and biological factors. These studies are being conducted in the vicinities of Boston (Massachusetts), Salt Lake City (Utah), and Birmingham (Alabama), areas where rapid urbanization is occurring. For each study, water quality will be sampled in approximately 30 drainage basins that represent a gradient of urban intensity. This paper focuses on the methods used to characterize and select the basins used in the studies. It presents a methodology for limiting the variability of natural landscape characteristics in the potential study drainage basins and for ranking the magnitude of human influence, or urbanization, based on land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic data in potential study basins. Basin characterization efforts associated with the Boston study are described for illustrative purposes.     

近10年来长江下游地区耕地动态变化特征

基于遥感资料和GIS分析,对1988～1998年长江下游地区耕地与其他土地利用类型之间相互转变数量特征,以及耕地变化强度、耕地流失强度的区域分异特征进行了分析和描述,对耕地变化导致的环境效应进行了初步探讨。研究结果表明:①1988～1998年,耕地与林地、灌丛、水体之间的转变,对其数量动态变化起着主要作用,在上述转变过程中,耕地总体表现出数量明显减少、质量降低的趋势;②农田向城镇的单向转移,体现了区域快速城市化对耕地的侵占过程,从空间分布看,该过程主要体现于上海、苏锡常地区、南京、杭州等城市化过程最为剧烈的地区;③长江下游地区1988～1998年耕地年均流失率为0.77%,流失的主体部分是位于长江三角洲和巢湖平原自然条件优越、水利灌溉配套设施完善的传统优质耕地,新形成的部分则主要来自于滩涂湿地开垦及低山丘陵地区毁林开荒。总体而言,长江下游地区耕地流失体现在数量锐减、质量下降两个方面,并伴随着一系列生态破坏问题的出现。     

Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Methodological approach of coastal areas concerning typology and spatial indicators, in the context of integrated management and environmental assessment

The general objective of this paper is to trigger off the development of a more comprehensive approach to Hellenic coastal areas (in the perspective of territorial cohesion), at local level and especially along the non-urban areas close to the sea. Methodological issues linked to the building of an appropriate coastal database constitute the key goal of this paper (the space and time scale, the relationship to the already proposed set of indicators, the impact of driving forces and policies, the possible sources of data and their feasibility etc.). Furthermore, specific emphasis should be given to the choice of new indicators, particularly for the coastal abiotic environment and the land cover/uses along coastal areas, especially near the seafront. Those indicators should be able to aid the formation (in the near future) of an algorithm linked to the total man-made activities in coastal areas. In conclusion, this paper will be considered successful if the just above illustrated objectives could enrich the argument about the typology of coastal areas and the development of a spatial (coastal) observatory. Actually, this paper is part of a broader research of the author regarding the monitoring of coastal spatial changes in different scales (AMICA, “Appraisal of man-made interventions along the Hellenic coastal areas”). This research aims to broaden the coastal knowledge (not only by means of coastal data) on behalf of all stakeholders been implicated into sustainable spatial planning, integrated coastal management and the strategic environmental assessment along coastal areas.

降雨作用下坡面侵蚀的水动力机理

降雨作用下的坡面侵蚀不仅导致严重的水土流失,同时也可能诱发严重的重力地质灾害如滑坡、泥石流等.研究其发生发展的机理以及内部理论规律对减灾防灾具有至关重要的作用.文章以水动力学公式为基础,从坡面颗粒侵蚀的水分环境角度入手,分析了浸泡状态下松散颗粒和固定颗粒的侵蚀机理,揭示降雨作用下坡面水流与坡面颗粒间的相互作用关系,并给出各类型侵蚀发生所对应的临界降雨强度.最后,通过实例计算验证了理论的合理性.     

20世纪下半叶上海市居住用地扩展模式、强度及空间分异特征

基于多时相土地利用图与遥感影像资料,建立空间研究网格,通过土地利用扩展强度指数的空间分析,对1947～2002年上海市建成区居住用地扩展模式、强度及空间分异特征进行了研究。结果表明:①上海市建成区居住用地空间扩展并不是持续增长的,其扩展强度与速度均从建国初期开始减小,在1964～1979年期间达到最低值后又逐渐增大,总体上表现为先降后升的发展变化;②居住用地扩展模式随时间发生较大变化,由建国初期以核心建成区为主的渐进式扩展(1947～1964年)转变为跳跃式扩展(1964～1988年),到近些年又发展成兼具渐进扩展与跳跃扩展特征的混合扩展模式(1988～2002年),城市用地功能由简单趋于复杂和多元化;③不同时期居住用地扩展过程差异较大,其行为特征受国家宏观政策及社会经济发展等因素的影响,可以为复杂的城市扩展动力机制研究提供更多素材。     

移动床生物膜反应器内气液传质性能研究

采用移动床生物膜反应器,利用清水进行了在不同悬浮填料体积含率和曝气强度时反应器内气液传质性能研究。结果表明,随着曝气强度增加,传质系数增大,但曝气强度过大,并不利于移动床操作;当填料体积含率大于40%时,氧传质系数出现最大值后逐渐减小。在填料体积含率为30%~50%、曝气强度为4.5~7 m3/(h.m)时,传质效果良好,氧转移效率较高。     

光照和营养盐对DBP在海河河口水中生物降解的影响

采集渤海海河河口水,在实验室受控条件下,研究了营养盐和光照条件对邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)生物降解的影响。实验结果表明:DBP在海河河口水中的生物降解符合一级动力学,微生物降解占总去除率的99%左右,微生物降解是DBP降解的主要途径。高营养水平时,DBP在光照、光暗条件下的生物降解速率常数分别为0.32d-1和0.41d-1;低营养水平时,DBP在光照、光暗条件下的生物降解速率常数分别为0.17d-1和0.20d-1。高营养条件下较高的微生物总量使DBP的生物降解速率明显大于相对低营养条件下的降解速率;在相同的营养条件下,光照能够改变水体中藻、菌的微生态结构,从而延迟DBP的降解。     

等离子体发生区工作时发射特定光谱的研究

介绍了2种不同等离子体发生区和不同测量距离对等离子体发生区沿面蓝光中紫外光的波长和相对光强的影响,所测的臭氧发生量大的等离子体发生区的紫外光的相对光强高,测量距离与相对光强呈指数关系,并且等离子体发生区沿面蓝光具有光催化作用。