Discounting under uncertainty: Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier effect

The uncertainty of future economic development affects the term structure of discount rates and, thus, the intertemporal weights that are to be used in cost benefit analysis. The U.K. and France have recently adopted a falling term structure to incorporate uncertainty and the U.S. is considering a similar step. A series of publications discusses the following concern: a seemingly analogous argument used to justify falling discount rates can also justify increasing discount rates. We show that increasing and decreasing discount rates mean different things, can coexist, are created by different channels through which risk affects evaluation, and have the same qualitative effect of making long-term payoffs more attractive.     

A novel hybrid model for water quality prediction based on VMD and IGOA optimized for LSTM

● A novel VMD-IGOA-LSTM model has proposed for the prediction of water quality. ● Improved model quickly converges to the global optimal fitness and remains stable. ● The prediction accuracy of water quality parameters is significantly improved. Water quality prediction is vital for solving water pollution and protecting the water environment. In terms of the characteristics of nonlinearity, instability, and randomness of water quality parameters, a short-term water quality prediction model was proposed based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and improved grasshopper optimization algorithm (IGOA), so as to optimize long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). First, VMD was adopted to decompose the water quality data into a series of relatively stable components, with the aim to reduce the instability of the original data and increase the predictability, then each component was input into the IGOA-LSTM model for prediction. Finally, each component was added to obtain the predicted values. In this study, the monitoring data from Dayangzhou Station and Shengmi Station of the Ganjiang River was used for training and prediction. The experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of the VMD-IGOA-LSTM model proposed was higher than that of the integrated model of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), the integrated model of Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), as well as other models, showing better performance in short-term prediction. The current study will provide a reliable solution for water quality prediction studies in other areas.     

How long is long-term? reflections based on over 20 years of post-Chernobyl management in Norway

The radiation protection community has only recently started the important work of preparedness for long-term post-accidental management of radioactively contaminated areas, like for instance the EC projects STRATEGY, FARMING and EURANOS and the French authorities' CODIRPA and PAREX programmes. There are, however, different views concerning how long a long-term management might last. Based on the Norwegian and former Soviet Union experience after the Chernobyl accident, it is clear that a nuclear accident can entail decades of necessary management and rehabilitation of living conditions. The time period is dependent on a number of factors, e.g. amount of fallout, type of radionuclides, land use of contaminated area, number and density of people affected and available techniques and resources for implementing countermeasures. This paper discusses the management strategy implemented in Norway after the Chernobyl accident, the need for changing strategy over time and the important involvement of affected groups. Careful planning and reflections should be undertaken before actions are taken in the recovery phase, keeping in mind the possibility of decades with problems.     

A mixture of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and non-ortho polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) changed the lipid content of pregnant Long Evans rats

Pregnant Long Evans rats received 1.0 μg/kg of dioxin toxic equivalents (TEQ) by oral gavage on the 15th gestational day (GD 15), using a dosing mixture that contained two polychlorinated dioxins, four polychlorinated furans and three non-ortho polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Rats were sacrificed on GD 16, GD 21 and postnatal day 4 (PND 4). The lipid content of fetus, pup, placenta and maternal liver, serum and adipose tissue were determined. Treated GD 16 and GD 21 fetuses had identical lipid content to the control group, yet the lipid content of treated pups on PND 4 was 32% higher than that of the control group. On the other hand, the lipid content of placenta, liver, and serum from the treated dams was 44–50%, 24%, and 38% lower than that of the control group, respectively. Thus, a low-dose mixture of dioxin-like compounds can cause changes in lipid content. The lipid content of offspring was not affected until they were exposed via lactation.     

Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments

The CANDY model has been qualitatively assessed for simulating long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon and tested against different long-term experiments representing various land uses and geographical sites, but never before against conditions of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Our goal was to simulate long-term trends in soil organic carbon for the long-term experiments of Barybino (Moscow region, Russia), Grakov (Kharkow region, Ukraine) and Yachenka (Minsk region, Belarus) representing the predominant arable soil types, climate conditions and typical management strategies for the investigated arable areas. The fit of modelled results to the observed data was evaluated to assess the suitability of the model for further applications in the FSU. The crop parameters of the CANDY model had to be adapted to the low yields observed under the Russian site conditions resulting in a higher sensitivity to crop-derived carbon input as a function of yield. The results show that the approach of treating the organic carbon situated in micro pores as inert, is an applicable solution for simulating soil carbon dynamics under Russian conditions. This evaluation of CANDY, against long-term experiments from Russia, gives confidence for its wider application in this region.     

Influence of avian reproduction ecotoxicological endpoints in the assessment of plant protection products

The aim of this paper is to examine the statistical relevance of bird species on the endpoints of avian long–term toxicity studies (eggs laid, eggs set, eggs hatching, embryo survivor, 14-day old survivors and eggshell thickness). Data from 561 animals of three different species (Colinus virginianus, Anas platyrynchos and Coturnix coturnix japonica) tested with five different pesticides were analyzed in this study. The substances considered were: Thiamethoxam (EZ-3-(2-chloro-1,3-thiazol-5-ylmethyl)-5-methyl-1,3,5-oxadiazinan-4-ylidene(nitro)amine), Thiacloprid ((Z)-3-(6-chloro-3-pyridylmethyl)-1,3-thiazolidin-2-ylidenecyanamide), Acetamiprid ((E)?N ¹-[(6-chloro-3-pyridyl)methyl]-N ²-cyano-N ¹-methylacetamidine), Phosmet (O,O-dimethyl S-phthalimidomethyl phosphorodithioate) and Dicofol (2,2,2-trichloro-1,1-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethanol). Several general lineal mixed models were conducted to evaluate the factors affecting variables used in long-term reproductive toxicity tests. Test significance was p < 0.01 in all models tested. Model R² value was high (0.80) for all variables except for eggs laid (R² = 0.42) for the three species studied. Tukey studentized range test showed significant differences among species and pesticides. For pre-hatching period the differences were significant for eggs laid and eggs set among species. C. japonica showed statistical differences for egg hatching. With respect to embryo survivor and 14 days old survival, significant different were found for C.virginianus and A. platyrynchos, respectively. These results indicate that the selected species have an influence in the endpoints to be used for risk assessment.     

文山盘龙河主要污染物变化分析

分析了文山盘龙河主要污染物、不同断位主要污染物变化、不同断面主要污染物的季节变化及年变化.     

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO RIVER DIMENSIONS1

ABSTRACT: Biophysical and socioeconomic effects are identified in reservoir, downstream, division channel, and receiving water body areas. Overall, the projects have been socially useful, especially from the perspective of hydroelectric, log driving, and economic development benefits. However selected socially inequitable aspects of the projects and other problems related to erosion, turbidity, multiple resource use, failure to clear trees, and heritage resource losses are identified. Suggestions for planning similar projects are presented.     

Net drift in an atypical estuary,Long Island Sound

Long Island Sound is an estuary with two-layered flow at the eastern opening to the ocean and a salinity gradient of about 5 parts per thousand between the eastern and western extremes. Tidal currents, wind-driven circulation, and river inflow and fresh water influx are investigated as factors affecting the net drift. Current measurements in eastern Long Island Sound indicate that the tidal circulation features that predominate there do not normally affect the net drift at the New Haven dump site. Drifter returns and a numerical model indicate that seasonal prevailing winds seem to be the primary cause of the net drift in central Long Island Sound.     

石屏异龙湖区域环境与经济开发规划研究

通过对异龙湖区环境与经济发展现状的诊断分析，把经济再生产的投入、产出与污染物的产生、排放及治理间的数量关系列表扩张而成模型、对湖区域环境与经济的投入产出进行分析，确定了包括水量调蓄、水污染治理、合理利用、强化管理等措施的综合治理途径，据此制订了湖区综合治理规划，提出了主要经济开发建设项目，并已在６个方面得到了应用。