Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。     

浑河主要污染指标特征性分析

利用1995年至2010年浑河干流7个常规监测断面的历年监测数据,通过统计分析确定浑河水质的主要污染指标为氨氮、总磷（TP）、化学需氧量（COD）和生化需氧量（BOD）。并指出1995～2000年间,浑河有机污染突出,2000年以后,浑河水质氮、磷污染更为突出,有机污染有所改善。并详细分析了这四项主要污染指标的时间及水期间分布规律,为浑河流域水污染治理及编制流域规划提供技术支撑。     

东江流域水污染控制与水生态系统恢复技术与综合示范

归纳了水专项东江项目2008—2013年的主要研究成果:针对保护优质水源的国家需求,选择典型的东江流域开展前瞻性的水污染控制技术研发并进行工程示范,创建了由常规水质指标实时在线化,痕量污染物控制指标识别筛选全流域优化,生物毒性指标甄别多属性全程化等成套技术构成的水源流域水质风险识别技术体系;由各类工艺废水脱毒减害,同质污水区域集中强化处理,排水持续净化等成套技术构成的水环境风险控制工程技术体系;由水生物链各物种生长状况评级,生境恢复和物种受损关键环节恢复等成套技术构成的生态健康维护技术体系。集成以上3个技术体系形成成套的流域水环境风险控制技术体系集。基于上述技术创新提出了“控制风险、维护生态、保水甘甜、发展持续”的水源流域管理创新总体策略。研发的技术体系与策略在东江流域的示范与应用,实现了东江主干流水质常年优于Ⅱ类的污染控制目标。     

建立我国重大事故预防控制体系之探讨

简述了我国重大工业事故发生的主要原因，提出了建立重大事故预防控制体系的建议，制定《重大事故预防和控制法》，实行重大危险源上报、登记、评价、分级监察管理，建立国家、省、市三级重大事故应急反应系统和重大危险源动态监控网络系统。     

基于神经网络的重大危险源动态分级研究

利用自组织神经网络对重大危险源进行动态分级研究，介绍了神经网络的模式聚类即分级法的自组织学习过程和算法，克服了以往危险源分级方法的某些局限性。在计算机上进行的模拟计算表明：基于自组织神经网络的重大危险源动态分级方法是合理可行的