长江源区基于坡面尺度的土壤水热过程模拟研究

长江源多年冻土区土壤水热传输过程机理与模拟,是广泛关系到高原生态环境保护恢复和区域水文过程的关键科学问题。因此,以GEOtop模型为研究平台,以长江源不同植被盖度下（裸地、30%、65%和92%）高寒草甸的观测数据为基础,检验模型对土壤水热迁移过程的描述与模拟精度。总体而言,GEOtop模型需要率定的参数较少,从而减少模型模拟的不确定性,提高了模拟精度。对不同植被盖度下土壤温度、水分和实际蒸散发模拟的NSE 系数基本达到08,表明模型能准确模拟高寒生态系统土壤的水热传输过程,可以作为长江源区土壤水热过程的有效模拟工具     

水环境中的碘化X-射线造影剂及其去除工艺研究进展

碘化X-射线造影剂(Iodinated X-ray contrast media,ICM)在水环境中被广泛检出,因其近期被发现是碘化消毒副产物的前体物而受到越来越多的关注.本文总结了ICM在污水、地表水和饮用水等水环境中的污染现状;分析了ICM的转化产物及转化机制;重点介绍了ICM的去除工艺,包括高级氧化技术、辐射技术以及生物降解转化技术;讨论了ICM及其降解转化产物可能对环境造成的生态风险.最后,本文对未来ICM的研究前景进行了展望.     

中国旅游业绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响机理

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展理念的重要组成部分,是旅游业奉行以人为本、生态至上和全面发展的新价值观。在梳理旅游业绿色发展概念及内涵基础上,构建旅游业绿色发展效率评价体系,运用SBM-Undersirable模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,探讨2008—2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）旅游业绿色发展效率（TGDE）时空演化特征及影响机理。研究发现：（1）时间和空间变化方面,TGDE总体处于中等偏下水平,时间上呈“W”型变化形态,“下降—上升—调整”阶段特征显著;空间呈“东—中—西”递减分布,内部差异为西部地区>东部地区>中部地区,低、中、高效率由“金字塔”向“菱形”结构转变,高效率地区集中于东部沿海,中等效率多分布于中西部地区,低效率位于胡焕庸线两侧。（2）动态演进方面,TGDE始终存在两极分化现象,但区域协调性逐步增强,具有较强平稳性,难以实现跨越式发展,空间向上转移省份比较集中,以中西部为主,向下调整省份较少,且存在明显的空间溢出效应,溢出影响具有不对称性。（3）影响机理方面,总体上,经济水平、产业结构、政府规制、教育水平和旅游资源影响因子与TGDE间存在显著的正向关系,对外开放程度的作用不显著,但各因子的影响程度、作用机理及条件具有较强地域性。     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

Does Riparian Forest Restoration Thinning Enhance Biodiversity? The Ecological Importance of Large Wood

Intact riparian ecosystems are rich in biological diversity, but throughout the world, many have been degraded. Biodiversity declines, particularly of vertebrates, have led to experimental efforts to restore riparian forests by thinning young stands to accelerate creation of large diameter live trees. However, many vertebrates depend on large diameter deadwood that is standing as snags or fallen to the forest floor or fallen into streams. Therefore, we reviewed the sizes of deadwood and live trees used by different vertebrate species to understand which species are likely to benefit from different thinning treatments. We then examined how riparian thinning affects the long‐term development of both large diameter live trees and deadwood. To this end, we used a forest growth model to examine how different forest thinning intensities might affect the long‐term production and abundance of live trees and deadwood. Our results suggest that there are long‐term habitat tradeoffs associated with different thinning intensities. Species that utilize large diameter live trees will benefit most from heavy thinning, whereas species that utilize large diameter deadwood will benefit most from light or no thinning. Because far more vertebrate species utilize large deadwood rather than large live trees, allowing riparian forests to naturally develop may result in the most rapid and sustained development of structural features important to most terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates.     

珠江口夏季有机碳的分布特征及其收支模拟研究

基于三维水质模型对珠江口夏季有机碳的分布特征及其收支进行了研究,量化了各动力学过程对有机碳分布的影响,这对于深入了解珠江口碳循环过程有重要意义.同时,采用2006年7—8月观测数据对模型进行了验证,结果显示模型模拟效果良好.研究表明,珠江口夏季有机碳呈明显的空间变化,其浓度总体上从口门向外海逐步降低,底层递减幅度大于表层;表层平均浓度为2.42 mg·L~(-1),底层平均浓度为1.91 mg·L~(-1).此外,有机碳在垂向上的分布与水体层化紧密相关,层化水域中的有机碳浓度随水深迅速下降,非层化水域上、下层的浓度差异不大.有机碳收支结果则表明,珠江口不同水域有机碳的物理、生化过程差异明显.在内伶仃洋,有机碳分布由物理过程主控,其主要来源与消耗分别为径流输送和沉降,两者分别约占该区域有机碳输入总量的83.80%、83.18%;在中伶仃洋,有机碳分布受物理和生化因素共同调控,其来源以生化产碳为主,动力输送为辅,主要耗碳项为沉降;在外伶仃洋,其西侧水域的有机碳主要来源与消耗分别为径流输送和沉降,有机碳分布受物理和生化过程共同调控,其中,物理过程占优势,而在其东侧水域,有机碳主要来源与消耗分别为生化产碳和生化耗碳,有机碳分布由生化过程主控.另外,捕食产碳和氧化耗碳分别是珠江口各生化过程中最重要的产、耗碳过程.     

Transformation of ecological conditions of soil and humus substance formation in the urban environment

Ecological conditions of soil formation and specific features of humus substance formation are considered with regard to urban soils of different types formed in the following functional zones: the park zone, residential area, and sanitary protective zone of the Middle Ural Copper-Smelting Plant. The specificity of soil formation in Revda, a typical industrial city of the Middle Urals, is determined by the combined effect of urban and technogenic factors (urbogenesis and technogenesis), with the former being of primary importance. At a constant period of biological activity, the depth of humification is primarily a function of granulometric and chemical composition of urban soils.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 11–19.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Meshcheryakov, Prokopovich, Korkina.     

Fingerprinting Global Climate Change and Forest Management Within Rhizosphere Carbon and Nutrient Cycling Processes

As one of the two Principal Subject Editors for ESPR Subject Area 1 'Terrestrial Ecology and Biology / Soil and Sediments: Toxicology-related Subjects' (see pp 287-293), the senior author and his colleague, Dr Chen, present an example of sub-category 4 'Environmental studies of pesticides, air pollution, and management strategies for forestry and plant ecosystems'. Thereby, they inform the ESPR community about the new Australian research project concerning the fingerprints of global climate change (GCC) and forest management on rhizosphere carbon and nutrient cycling and, subsequently, present an overview on the GCC and forest management fingerprints.     

系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.