Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

华北地区1951-2009年气温、降水变化特征

基于华北五省(市)64个基本气象站的1961-2009年逐年逐月气温、降水资料, 利用泰森权重计算了华北地区面平均降水及面平均气温,并建立了7个长序列气象站的气温、降水与面平均值的回归方程,展延了研究区1951-1960年面平均降水和气温资料。对展延后的1951-2009年序列数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验、Mann-Whitney检验、9 a滑动平均等方法进行趋势分析,分析结果显示: 该区59 a间年气温上升了1.5 ℃,年气温序列存在显著上升趋势,年气温序列在1993年前后有一个突变点,年气温距平以1989年为低温期与高温期的分界线,年气温平均每10 a增长2.2%;年降水序列无显著趋势,亦无显著跳跃趋势,年降水距平大致以1976年为多雨期与少雨期的分界线,年降水平均每10 a增长-1.3%。研究成果为深入分析华北地区气候变化规律、未来气候变化影响,以及水资源对气候变化的响应提供了基础。     

某电厂600MW火电机组脱硫增容改造方案探讨

按照国家环保部文件要求,大唐集团河北某电厂600 MW机组湿法脱硫系统需进行增容改造。该电厂根据实际情况,归纳了3种可行的脱硫增容改造方案,即原吸收塔增加喷淋层和高度、双吸收塔串联、双吸收塔双循环,阐述了各自的技术特点,结合性能保证、工程投资、施工周期等影响因素,比较了各方案的优缺点。经过对比和论证,双吸收塔方案比单吸收塔方案更适合于本次工程改造。     

电磁兼容测量结果可追溯性技术探讨

无线电波因其具有较强的方向性和反射性等传播特点,往往会引起电磁兼容测量结果的不稳定甚至有较大的偏差,如果不对测量过程中的测量和试验布置、试品的工况、记录报告等要素进行可追溯性分析和控制,势必会造成测量结果的随意和不确定性.因此在电磁兼容测量实验室,非常有必要对测量过程和测量结果进行可追溯性研究、分析和控制,一是提供准确可再现的测量数据,对客户负责,二是通过可追溯性控制,再现试验和测量过程,验证测量结果,对实验室的风险进行预见和预防.本文主要立求通过实际案例的分析,畅述和分析在电磁兼容测量实验室如何建立可追溯性的控制体系.     

WILSON柴油发电机组噪声综合治理

介绍了某电信公司柴油发电机组的噪声综合治理,柴油发电机组排烟风道采用两级消声处理,同时设置进排风百叶窗、隔声墙、隔声门和吸声吊顶等设备,治理后噪声排放达到《城市区域环境噪声标准》Ⅱ类区域的噪声标准。     

考虑后悔与失望心理的应急救援任务匹配方法

为研究区间犹豫模糊信息下的应急救援任务匹配问题,提出考虑救援人员与受灾群众后悔与失望心理的决策方法以及确定双边主体效用值的方法,基于后悔理论与失望理论获得双边主体的后悔值与失望值,确定双边主体的综合感知效用值,并构建最大化综合感知效用值的多目标匹配优化模型,以得到最优匹配结果。研究结果表明：后悔与失望心理对双边主体的心理感知具有重要影响,但不影响最优匹配结果。研究结果可为应急救援任务匹配提供理论支持。     

基于可拓物元模型的安全经济开采评价指标体系的构建及应用

首先根据安全经济开采的内涵,建立以人员安全、设施设备安全、开采环境安全、安全投资和安全管理为主要制约因素的安全经济开采评价模型,并运用改进的层次分析法确定人员可靠度对安全经济开采水平影响最大,开采环境可靠度影响最小。其次,采用函数拟合法、专家打分法、标准化打分法量化安全经济开采水平指标,并将安全经济开采水平划分为3个等级。最后,运用可拓物元模型方法,得出某铁矿安全经济开采水平为二级,无重大经济损失,与实际吻合。     

潞安集团煤油循环经济园区的探索与实践

山西潞安集团充分发挥自身煤炭资源和区位发展优势,以煤的深度转化为主线,着力探索实践煤基合成油项目,延伸发展煤基多联产产业化,产出了煤基合成油,建成了煤油循环经济园区,走出一条“高碳能源,低碳利用”的循环经济之路。对潞安集团煤油循环经济园区进行全面的研究和介绍,以期为煤炭工业可持续发展提供一种全新的视角和思路。     

泥石流危险度的改进集对分析模型

泥石流危险度的正确评估是泥石流灾害治理和工程措施的基础,但泥石流危险度评价是一个极其复杂的不确定性问题.基于集对分析理论,探讨了泥石流危险度的集对分析改进新方法,即基于样本评价指标实测值与讨论泥石流标准危险度类别间的接近程度,判别集对同异反,进而应用模糊联系度的概念挖掘样本与讨论类别相邻类别的集对同异反有效信息,以综合定量分析样本的危险度,从而提高评价结果的町靠性和准确性.实例应用及与其他方法对比结果表明,基于改进的集对分析方法来评价泥石流危险度是有效可行的,町以取得理想的结果,且操作简单.