基于可拓和组合赋权的泥石流危险性评价

基于可拓学物元理论,结合层次分析主观赋权法与灰色关联度客观赋权法,对评价因子进行组合赋权,避免单一赋权方法的片面性,建立泥石流危险性评价模型。影响泥石流危险性的因子有很多,通过现场实际调查,选取一次泥石流最大冲出量、发生频率、24 h最大降雨量等8个因子对泥石流进行危险性评价。运用该模型对卡拉地区7条泥石流沟进行危险性评价,评价结果与实际情况相吻合,表明此方法可为泥石流危险性评价提供参考。     

Balancing Forest‐Regeneration Probabilities and Maintenance Costs in Dry Grasslands of High Conservation Priority

Abstract: Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species‐rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site‐selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry‐grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry‐grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.     

基于可拓云理论的泥炭质土场地沉降风险评价

为更好地研究泥炭质土场地地铁车站基坑周边沉降问题,预测和评估施工时及施工后的沉降风险,在分析了泥炭质土的特点后,选择土层厚度、有机质质量分数、重度、天然含水率、孔隙比、土层埋深和压缩模量7个指标,建立沉降风险评估指标体系,并根据改进层次分析法和改进熵权法求出主观权重与客观权重,最后用理想点法耦合主客观权重求出各评价指标的综合权重;根据沉降等级分类标准,生成每个评价指标的云滴图,计算得到各评价因子的可拓云矩阵,进而将综合权重向量与可拓云矩阵相乘得到综合确定度,根据综合确定度最大原则确定样本沉降风险等级。以昆明某地铁车站施工监测数据为例,用建立的可拓云模型对泥炭质土场地的沉降风险进行评价,最终评价结果与实际监测结果吻合较好,验证了分析方法的合理性及可行性。该评价方法充分考虑了多种因素影响,明确了沉降的风险等级,评价结果为泥炭土场地上建(构)筑物的设计施工及应急处理提供了理论依据。     

基于粗糙集和IPA的煤矿生产物流系统安全影响因素分析

针对煤矿生产物流系统安全影响因素众多、各因素对煤矿安全影响作用复杂的问题,提出基于粗糙集和IPA定位分析法的煤矿生产物流系统安全影响因素分析模型。首先运用粗糙集属性重要度思想对煤矿安全影响因素进行排序,然后采用IPA定位分析法识别不同安全状态煤矿安全生产的制约因素,最后通过对河南义马煤业集团跃进煤矿进行实证分析验证模型的可行性。结果表明,各因素对煤矿安全影响的重要度由大到小排序为通风设施、通风安全监控、通风技术管理、排水设备配置、机电安全管理、排水技术人员配备(采掘关系)、采掘机械、排水机构设置、安全运输、应急救援、采掘技术管理,且对于不同安全状态等级的煤矿而言,制约其安全的主要因素也不相同。     

浅谈提升高硫煤机组FGD可靠性之措施

针对高硫煤机组FGD的技术特点,从设计源头介绍了如何提升高硫煤机组FGD可靠性的措施,并佐以工程实例。     

Management of life extension for topsides process system of offshore platforms in Chinese Bohai Bay

Technological advances in exploration and production mean that production platforms in Chinese Bohai Bay have many developments that are now operating beyond their original design life. As equipment ages, there are increasing challenges to maintain its integrity. Issues related to LE management of offshore facilities in government regulations, industrial associations and international oil companies were investigated. The results showed that emphasizing the requirements of labor union and industrial associations was a great feature in Norway, which was practical in Chinese Bohai Bay. Therefore, with the combination of the LE management system in Norway with the current situation in Chinese Bohai Bay, LE management model which integrates RBI, RCM, FMECA, and SIL risk assessment methods together was designed in order to improve understanding and ensure that LE issues were addressed across all aspects of asset management during the entire LE period. Finally, an example of three production offshore platforms on a gas field in the Bohai Bay was used to go through the LE management process and address the issues in each phase. The suggestions for improving LE management and technologies were given.     

贮存使用环境对导弹性能的影响机理

目的分析影响导弹性能的主要环境因素及影响机理。方法根据导弹的贮存条件和环境因素的重要性,分析影响导弹性能的主要环境因素,分析总结其影响机理。结果影响导弹性能的主要环境因素包括温度、湿度、振动与冲击、重力、气压和静电,其中温度的主要影响机理是引起力学性能、电器性能、气体和液体对容器的压力、化学反应速度的变化,湿度的影响机理是水膜、凝露的形成和产品的吸湿,振动与冲击的影响机理是疲劳损伤和极限破坏,重力影响固体发动机粘接界面的机理是药柱温度小于平衡温度引起的扯离应力,气压的影响机理是空气压力、空气密度和空气含氧量的变化,静电的影响机理是静电放电和静电引力。结论环境影响导弹性能的机理,对通过设计提高导弹的环境适应能力和使用环境控制都很重要。     

Using Soil and Water Conservation Contests for Extension: Experiences from the Bolivian Mountain Valleys

Soil and water conservation (SWC) contests among farmer groups were organized in five rural villages in the Bolivian mountain valleys. The contests were aimed at quickly achieving widespread sustainable results. This article analyzes the effectiveness of these contests as an extension tool. Mixed results were obtained. In three villages, participation rates in the SWC activities introduced in the contests were still high even 2 years after project withdrawal. These were all villages where a solid foundation for sustainable development had been laid before the contests were held. Two years later, most families were still involved in maintenance of the SWC practices introduced in the contests, and many farmers had started to experiment with different soil management practices. However, replications of these SWC practices were not widespread, Conservation Leaders did not continue with their training activities, and the quality of maintenance of the practices was often not satisfactory. In order to become a more effective extension tool and achieve widespread impact, SWC contests must receive continued support by a catalyst agency. Moreover, other SWC contests should also be organized in which practices are not predefined. Given that SWC contests are a low-budget extension tool, local municipalities could become more actively involved.     

基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价

为综合评价尾矿库的安全状态,基于尾矿库灾变机理和大量工程实践构建了一套包括3级指标、22个因素的评价指标体系,并确定了评价指标的等级量值区间。采用EAHP和熵权法结合的方式确定指标权重,基于可拓理论评价尾矿库的安全等级。以湖南黄金集团责任有限公司旗下的7座尾矿库为案例,评价其安全状态,根据蒙特卡洛模拟基本理论,基于Crystal Ball对案例进行敏感性分析,找出具体敏感因素,为后期尾矿库安全管理提供简单有效的控制方法。     

推行定置管理促进安全文明生产

定置管理是优化生产现场为研究对象。研究生产要素中人、物、场所的状况以及三者在生产活动中的相互关系。使人、物、场所处于最佳结合状态。定置管理不仅有效地促进了厂区的文明化，强化了运输处的现场综合治理，同时，也推动了运输处广大职工的精神文明建设。提高了广大职工安全生产意识，它已成为运输处企业管理的一项基础性工作，同时，也保证了文明生产和安全生产。