A WATERSHED-LEVEL ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: We present an ecological risk assessment methodology at the watershed level for freshwater ecosystems. The major component is a pollutant transport and fate model (a modified EUTROMOD) with an integrated uncertainty analysis utilizing a two-phase Monte Carlo procedure. The uncertainty analysis methodology distinguishes between knowledge uncertainty and stochastic variability. The model assesses the ecological risk of lentic (lake) ecosystems in response to the stress of excess phosphorus resulting in eutrophication. The methodology and model were tested on the Wister Lake watershed in Oklahoma with the lake and its trophic state as the endpoint for ecological risk assessment. A geographic information system was used to store, manage, and manipulate spatially referenced data for model input.     

HYDROLOGIC UNCERTAINTY MEASURE AND NETWORK DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simple methodology, using the entropy concept, to estimate regional hydro logic uncertainty and information at both gaged and ungaged grids in a basin. The methodology described in this paper is applicable for (a) the selection of the optimum station from a dense network, using maximization of information transmission criteria, and (b) expansion of a network using data from an existing sparse network by means of the information interpolation concept and identification of the zones from minimum hydrologic information. The computation of single and joint entropy terms used in the above two cases depends upon single and multivariable probability density functions. In this paper, these terms are derived for the gamma distribution. The derived formulation for optimum hydrologic network design was tested using the data from a network of 29 rain gages on Sleeper River Experimental Watershed. For the purpose of network reduction, the watershed was divided into three subregions, and the optimum stations and their locations in each subregion were identified. To apply the network expansion methodology, only the network consisting of 13 stations was used, and feasible triangular elements were formed by joining the stations. Hydrologic information was calculated at various points on the line segments, and critical information zones were identified by plotting information contours. The entropy concept used in this paper, although derived for single and bivaviate gamma distribution, is general in type and can easily be modified for other distributions by a simple variable transformation criterion.     

Validation and global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method for fenamidone analysis in grapes and wines

Fenamidone is an imidazolinone fungicide recently introduced in viticulture practices. This work reports the validation and assessment of global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method to analyze fenamidone in grapes and wines. This method consists in a simple and fast liquid-liquid extraction step followed by chromatographic determination. Limits of detection for fenamidone in grapes and wines were, respectively, 0.05 mg/kg and 0.06 mg/L, precision was below 9.4% and average recovery was 89 ± 5%. In the concentration range from 0.05 to 1.00 mg/kg (or mg/L) of fenamidone, global uncertainty calculated following the EURACHEM/CITAC rules, and also by the Horwitz function, was below 25%. The EURACHEM/CITAC global uncertainty budget used gave lower estimates than those obtained from the Horwitz function.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.     

An enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system based on fuzzy-set approach: II. Model validation and application

Part I of this study develops an enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system (EMMS) based on fuzzy-set approach. Once the model development is complete, the composite module and the entire modeling system need to be tested and validated to ensure that the model can simulate natural phenomena with reasonable and reliable accuracy. The developed EMMS is first tested in a complete case study. And then verification results are conducted to compare with extensively researched literature data. In the third step, the data from an experimental landfill site is used for a pilot-scale validation. The comparisons between EMMS outputs and the literature data indicate that the EMMS can perform accurate modeling simulation. The modules of EMMS could support the entire environmental multimedia modeling system. Further field-scale validation is finished. The results are satisfactory. Most of the modeling yields closely match the monitoring data collected from sites. In addition, with the aid of fuzzy-set approach, EMMS can be a reliable and powerful tool to address the complex environmental multimedia pollution problems and provide an extensive support for decision makers in managing the contaminated environmental systems.     

东莞市某地区地表水中重金属健康风险不确定性评价

为了解东莞市西南地区(麻涌镇、沙田镇、虎门镇和长安镇)地表水中重金属污染现状与健康风险水平,对研究区域内29个地表水样中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn等重金属元素进行测定,并运用不确定性健康风险评价模型对研究区地表水中的重金属进行健康风险评估。结果表明:该研究区域地表水中重金属引起的致癌风险较高,人均年健康风险都在Ⅴ级风险及以上。化学致癌性重金属引起的人均年健康风险中,以Cr最大,As次之,然后是Cd。非化学致癌性重金属引起的人均年健康风险中,Pb的风险最大,Ni次之,风险均远小于化学致癌性重金属引起的人均年健康风险。因此,该研究区域地表水中重金属健康风险管理应以化学致癌风险为主,重金属污染物的优先控制顺序为CrAsCd。     

An uncertain energy planning model under carbon taxes

In this study, an interval fuzzy mixed-integer energy planning model (IFMI-EPM) is developed under considering the carbon tax policy. The developed IFMIEPM incorporates techniques of interval-parameter programming, fuzzy planning and mixed-integer programming within a general energy planning model. The IFMIEPM can not only be used for quantitatively analyzing a variety of policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of carbon tax policy, but also tackle uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and fuzzy sets in energy and environment systems. Considering low, medium and high carbon tax rates, the model is applied to an ideal energy and environment system. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired carbon tax policy.