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81.
Vellidis G Smith MC Leibowitz SG Ainslie WB Pruitt BA 《Environmental management》2003,31(2):0301-0312
In a climate of limited resources, it is often necessary to prioritize restoration efforts geographically. The synoptic approach
is an ecologically based tool for geographic prioritization of wetland protection and restoration efforts. The approach was
specifically designed to incorporate best professional judgment in cases where information and resources are otherwise limited.
Synoptic assessments calculate indices for functional criteria in subunits (watersheds, counties, etc.) of a region and then
rank the subunits. Ranks can be visualized in region-scale maps which enable managers to identify areas where efforts optimize
functional performance on a regional scale. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for prioritizing watersheds whose
wetlands can be restored to reduce total sediment yield at the watershed outlet. The conceptual model is designed to rank
watersheds but not individual wetlands within a watershed. The synoptic approach is valid for applying the sediment yield
reduction model because there is high demand for prioritizing disturbed wetlands for restoration, but there is limited, quantitative,
accurate information available with which to make decisions. Furthermore, the cost of creating a comprehensive database is
prohibitively high. Finally, because the model will be used for planning purposes, and, specifically, for prioritizing based
on multiple decisions rather than optimizing a single decision, the consequence of prioritization errors is low. Model results
cannot be treated as scientific findings. The conclusions of an assessment are based on judgement, but this judgement is guided
by scientific principles and a general understanding of relevant ecological processes. The conceptual model was developed
as the first step towards prioritizing of wetland restoration for sediment yield reduction in US EPA Region 4. 相似文献
82.
Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories
(CO2 from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period
of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper,
we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories.
According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions
trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to
CH4 and N2O, in addition to CO2, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty
in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto
Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol
did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small. 相似文献
83.
In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market.
In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural
model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences,
especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s
Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits
in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from
that of smaller ones.
This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance
& Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.” 相似文献
84.
Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Zbigniew Nahorski Joanna Horabik Matthias Jonas 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2007,7(4-5):539-558
A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties
in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions
for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits
granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is
thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty. 相似文献
85.
基于模糊综合方法的工业污水环境安全影响评价研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
田云丽 《中国安全科学学报》2007,17(9):109-113
在综合分析水环境影响因素的基础上,应用模糊综合评价方法对工业污水环境安全影响进行了研究。首先构建工业污水污染程度模糊综合评价的数学模型,然后利用综合评价方法对污水中重金属污染程度进行有效评价。研究结果表明:模糊综合评价方法可以全面考虑企业排放废水中影响环境安全的各种因素,充分体现评价因素和评价过程所固有的模糊性,适用于复杂参数水环境的不确定分析与评价,可以有效地评价水的质量;将模糊评价方法引入工业污水对环境安全影响的评价体系,是污水处理评价发展的一个新方向和新领域,它是污水处理评价方法的补充和完善,在该领域具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
86.
Jeffrey H. Smith Donald R. Davis Martin Fogel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1977,13(3):529-541
ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration. 相似文献
87.
88.
Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River 下载免费PDF全文
Dominique R. Bourdin Dave Campbell Roland B. Stull Tobi Gardner 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(2):502-512
Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust. 相似文献
89.
洞穴次生化学碳酸盐沉积物-石笋的气候替代指标的意义与不确定性因素 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
洞穴次生化学碳酸盐(CaCO3)沉积物-石笋、钙华和流石,是一个具有丰富的陆地古气候信息的档案库。洞穴碳酸盐(CaCO3)-石笋古环境重建常用的代用指标有碳、氧稳定同位素、生长速度、纹层厚度和灰度、有机质荧光、微量元素等,利用多种替代指标的环境解译,增加了古气候环境重建的可靠性。本文从测年方法和石笋年代学的研究入手,对石笋的生长速度,沉积速率、纹层厚度、稳定同位素、微量元素等各代用指标指代的气候意义进行了简述,同时,也对洞穴次生化学碳酸盐(CaCO3)沉积物-石笋中各单一代用指标存在的不确定性影响因素进行了探讨。因此,我们认为洞穴动态监测可为洞穴碳酸盐(CaCO3)沉积物的各替代指标的解译提供可靠的依据,充分利用现代洞穴监测的碳酸盐(CaCO3)沉积物的各替代指标,并与现代器测气象资料进行相互对比、并用以校正,是精确或定量解释石笋气候替代指标的关键。 相似文献
90.