欧盟碳配额现货与期货价格关系及对中国的借鉴

基于欧盟碳市场配额现货与期货的发展经验和对我国统一碳市场建设的借鉴,本文以2005-2012年欧盟碳排放权交易体系(EU ETS)欧盟配额的现货和期货价格为样本研究二者之间的关系。本文运用单位根检验(ADF检验)的方法验证现货与期货价格的序列平稳性,并在序列平稳的前提下基于协整理论研究现货价格与期货价格的长期均衡关系,反映了二者间的静态关系。但短期内这一静态关系并不成立,反而表现出一定的动态性,短期价格的变动能够真实地反映市场需求,对价格的形成起着重要作用,因而采用向量误差修正模型重点研究二者间的短期动态关系。研究表明:1碳现货价格与期货价格间有着不同程度的影响,二者存在长期均衡,但短期内受市场特定因素的影响,二者又有所偏离;2期货价格反应灵敏,偏离均衡后调整速度快于现货,而且期货的滞后期价格对现货价格影响显著,这更加突显了碳期货的价格发现作用;3期货市场涉及了投资者对市场的预期和判断,较现货交易包含了更多的投机性,价格更为灵活,波动频繁,增加了市场风险。最后,根据结论对我国碳市场建设提出一些启示和建议:针对现货与期货价格之间的动态关系,应当积极开发和利用碳期货市场,通过期货的价格发现功能形成合理碳价,同时需要增强期货市场与现货市场的透明度,实现信息的传递与分享,最终实现期货市场对现货市场的补充和完善;为规避期货价格的波动性所带来的风险,需要建立一套完善的风险防控体系,在风险可控的前提下利用期货价格对市场进行预期,及时引导市场价格,形成完善的价格机制,为全国统一碳市场建设提供价格基础。     

Geochemical processes of mercury in Wujiangdu and Dongfeng reservoirs, Guizhou, China

The geochemical processes of mercury in Dongfeng (DF) and Wujiangdu (WJD) reservoirs, which were constructed in 1992 and 1979, respectively in Wujiang River, which is the upper branch of Yangtze River were investigated. One sampling site was chosen upriver of 1 km from the dam for each reservoir. Three sampling campaigns were conducted at these sampling sites in December 2003, April 2004 and July 2004, respectively. The distributions of different mercury species in the water column, sediment, and sediment pore water were studied. We found that the sediment is the net source of both inorganic and MeHg to the water column for both reservoirs. The MeHg diffusion fluxes in WJD reservoir at all sampling campaigns were significantly higher than those in DF reservoir. Our study demonstrated that the high primary productivity in the reservoir produced elevated organic matter content that would favor the methylmercury production in sediment.     

A DFT study of the reactions of O3 with Hg° or Br

In the mid 1980s the study of ozone reactivity gained a significant interest with the discoveries of the stratospheric ozone hole (Farman et al., 1985) and of the ozone depletion events in the polar boundary layer (Oltmans et al., 1989). In the stratosphere, the mechanism involves heterogeneous reactions on polar stratospheric clouds that lead to chlorine activation (Solomon et al., 1986). In contrast, tropospheric ozone depletion occurring during polar springtime rather involves reactive bromine species. They are released during a series of photochemical and heterogeneous reactions often called the bromine explosion (see the review of Simpson et al., 2007). In this reaction sequence, an essential step is the generation of photolyzable Br₂, the precursor of two Br atoms, via the multiphasic reaction (1):

(1)

HOBr + Br⁻ + H⁺ → H₂O + Br₂

The production of reactive HOBr could occur with the oxidation of BrO by HO₂.     

Characterising the landscape of state environmental review policies and procedures in the United States: a national assessment

Following the intent of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, many states have adopted policies and procedures directing state agencies and local government units to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of development projects prior to their undertaking. In contrast to a rich literature on federal requirements, current understanding of state environmental review is narrowly focused and outdated. This paper seeks to provide information on the landscape of state environmental review policy frameworks. The paper identifies 37 states with formal environmental review requirements through a document review of state statutes, administrative rules and agency-prepared materials, and confirms this finding through a survey of state administrators. A two-tier classification is used to distinguish states based on the approach taken to address environmental review needs and the scope and depth of relevant policies and procedures implemented. This paper also provides a discussion of policy and programme attributes that may contribute to effective practice, and of the potential for adopting relevant legislation in states where environmental review is currently lacking.     

Accumulation, distribution and cellular partitioning of mercury in several halophytes of a contaminated salt marsh

This work evaluates the role of a plant community in mercury (Hg) stabilization and mobility in a contaminated Portuguese salt marsh. With this aim, the distribution of Hg in below and aboveground tissues, as well as the metal partitioning between cellular fractions (soluble and insoluble) in four different species (Triglochin maritima L., Juncus maritimus Lam, Sarcocornia perennis (Miller) A.J. Scott, and Halimione portulacoides (L.) Aellen) was assessed. Mercury accumulation, translocation and compartmentation between organs and cellular fractions were related to the plant species.Results showed that the degree of Hg absorption and retention was influenced both by environmental parameters and metal translocation/partitioning strategies. Different plant species presented different allocation patterns, with marked differences between monocots (T. maritima and J. maritimus) and dicots (S. perennis, H. portulacoides). Overall, the two monocots, in particular T. maritima showed higher Hg retention in the belowground organs whereas the dicots, particularly S. perennis presented a more pronounced translocation to the aboveground tissues. Considering cellular Hg partitioning, all species showed a higher Hg binding to cell walls and membranes rather than in the soluble fractions. This strategy can be related to the high degree of tolerance observed in the studied species. These results indicate that the composition of salt marsh plant communities can be very important in dictating the Hg mobility within the marsh ecosystem and in the rest of the aquatic system as well as providing important insights to future phytoremediation approaches in Hg contaminated salt marshes.     

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland

Background, aim, and scope  The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. Materials and methods  An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. Results  The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 10⁶ m³ and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g⁻¹ or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g⁻¹ d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m³). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m³) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. Conclusions  The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. Recommendations and perspectives  The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Mercury bioaccumulation and risk to three waterbird foraging guilds is influenced by foraging ecology and breeding stage

We evaluated mercury (Hg) in five waterbird species representing three foraging guilds in San Francisco Bay, CA. Fish-eating birds (Forster's and Caspian terns) had the highest Hg concentrations in thier tissues, but concentrations in an invertebrate-foraging shorebird (black-necked stilt) were also elevated. Foraging habitat was important for Hg exposure as illustrated by within-guild differences, where species more associated with marshes and salt ponds had higher concentrations than those more associated with open-bay and tidal mudflats. Importantly, Hg concentrations increased with time spent in the estuary. Surf scoter concentrations tripled over six months, whereas Forster's terns showed an up to 5-fold increase between estuary arrival and breeding. Breeding waterbirds were at elevated risk of Hg-induced reproductive impairment, particularly Forster's terns, in which 48% of breeding birds were at high risk due to their Hg levels. Our results highlight the importance of habitat and exposure timing, in addition to trophic position, on waterbird Hg bioaccumulation and risk.     

Widespread waterborne pollution in central Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea from pre-industrial mining and metallurgy

Metal pollution is viewed as a modern problem that began in the 19th century and accelerated through the 20th century; however, in many parts of the globe this view is wrong. Here, we studied past waterborne metal pollution in lake sediments from the Bergslagen region in central Sweden, one of many historically important mining regions in Europe. With a focus on lead (including isotopes), we trace mining impacts from a local scale, through a 120-km-long river system draining into Mälaren - Sweden's third largest lake, and finally also the Baltic Sea. Comparison of sediment and peat records shows that pollution from Swedish mining was largely waterborne and that atmospheric deposition was dominated by long-range transport from other regions. Swedish ore lead is detectable from the 10th century, but the greatest impact occurred during the 16th-18th centuries with improvements occurring over recent centuries, i.e., historical pollution > modern industrial pollution.     

Ultraviolet absorbance as a proxy for total dissolved mercury in streams

Stream water samples were collected over a range of hydrologic and seasonal conditions at three forested watersheds in the northeastern USA. Samples were analyzed for dissolved total mercury (THg_d), DOC concentration and DOC composition, and UV₂₅₄ absorbance across the three sites over different seasons and flow conditions. Pooling data from all sites, we found a strong positive correlation of THg_d to DOC (r² = 0.87), but progressively stronger correlations of THg_d with the hydrophobic acid fraction (HPOA) of DOC (r² = 0.91) and with UV₂₅₄ absorbance (r² = 0.92). The strength of the UV₂₅₄ absorbance-THg_d relationship suggests that optical properties associated with dissolved organic matter may be excellent proxies for THg_d concentration in these streams. Ease of sample collection and analysis, the potential application of in-situ optical sensors, and the possibility for intensive monitoring over the hydrograph make this an effective, inexpensive approach to estimate THg_d flux in drainage waters.     

Risk assessment tools incorporating human error probabilities in the Japanese small-sized establishment

Although it has been estimated that as many as 80% of all occupational accidents have human errors as a cause, no risk assessment tools incorporating human-related elements have been developed for small companies. Human error probability (HEP) and human error analysis (HEA) have been used for large-scale, safety-critical industries for last three decades, but these tools are not suitable for smaller, more general industries that comprise the majority of accident settings.Here, we describe and verify a risk assessment tool that includes human-related elements for small companies. The tool expands on traditional risk assessment methods, such as matrix, risk graph and numerical scoring method, by adding human-related elements. The tool is easy-to-use in occupational environments, and includes assessments of human behavior and potentially outdated machinery at work place.