Disturbance-Response Analysis: a Method for Rapid Assessment of the Threat to Species in Disturbed Areas

Abstract:  We developed a method with which to analyze a specie's response to chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD). We regressed density of individuals on the intensity of 3 disturbance agents (human activities, raising livestock, and land degradation) along CAD gradients to determine how much CAD is experienced by a species; whether species are ruderal (achieving maximum densities in disturbed sites); whether density declines as a result of CAD; which disturbance agents are responsible for this reduction; and the number of populations that decline as a result of CAD. We tested the method on 9 threatened Mammillaria species (Cactaceae). Seven species were ruderal. In 4 species, actual disturbance surpassed the CAD intensity in which plants achieved their maximum densities; thus, the density of those 4 species appeared to be declining. For 7 species, some populations were threatened by human activities or livestock, whereas others were favored by them. Land degradation negatively affected all species. Our results allowed us to distinguish 4 groups of species that had similar responses and thus may require different forms of management. Our method provided an estimation of the growth rate (λ) of the studied populations that was significantly correlated with λs obtained from demographic studies. The size structures of populations were consistent with the predictions of the analysis, which suggests our results are consistent and reliable. Disturbance–response analysis provides a basis for management in heavily populated areas, where conservation must be achieved along with development activities that cause CAD. The method provides readily interpretable information, which facilitates participative decision making; the data are rapidly generated, which makes it appropriate when results are required promptly or for assessment of large numbers of species; and it provides a comprehensive perception of how threatened species behave in the real world.     

Building Consensus in Environmental Impact Assessment Through Multicriteria Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) increasingly is being applied in environmental impact assessment (EIA). In this article, two MCDA techniques, stochastic analytic hierarchy process and compromise programming, are combined to ascertain the environmental impacts of and to rank two alternative sites for Mexico City’s new airport. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the probability of changes in rank ordering given uncertainty in the hierarchy structure, decision criteria weights, and decision criteria performances. Results demonstrate that sensitivity analysis is fundamental for attaining consensus among members of interdisciplinary teams and for settling debates in controversial projects. It was concluded that sensitivity analysis is critical for achieving a transparent and technically defensible MCDA implementation in controversial EIA.     

Sustainable Land Use Requires Attention to Ecological Signals

This case study details the difficulties of landscape management, highlighting the challenges inherent in managing natural resources when multiple agencies are involved, when the land users have no incentive for conservation, and when government agencies have too few resources for effective management. Pumping of groundwater from the aquifer of La Costa de Hermosillo in the state of Sonora, Mexico, began in 1945 and developed so quickly that by the late 1950s salinity intrusion from the Gulf of California was occurring in the wells. In the 1970s, the irrigatable land in La Costa peaked at 132,516 ha and the extracted volume of water from the aquifer peaked at around 1.14 billion cubic meters annually. By the 1980s, 105 wells of the total of 498 were contaminated with seawater and, therefore, identified for closure. At present La Costa de Hermosillo still represents 15% of the total harvested land, 16% of the total annual production, and 23% of the gross agricultural production of the state of Sonora. However, there are approximately 80,000 ha of abandoned fields due to salt water intension, lack of water and/or lack of credit available to individual farmers. This unstable situation resulted from the interplay of water management policies and practices, and farm-land policies and practices. While government agencies have been able to enforce better water use for agricultural production, there remains a significant area that requires restoration from its degraded state. For this piece of the ecosystem management puzzle, government agencies have thus far been unable to affect a solution.     

Dutch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: A comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico

Dutch disease and, more recently, resource curse thesis have been critical issues for development of resource abundant economies. This paper attempts a comparison between Indonesia and Mexico in their policy adjustments to the oil boom with special reference to the Dutch disease. There exists a striking contrast, especially in their fiscal, foreign borrowing, and exchange rate policies, and confirms the conventional understanding that a booming government should be conservative, as was the case in Indonesia, in its macroeconomic management to avoid the Dutch disease. Equally significant, investment use of oil revenues to strengthen the tradable sector is another factor responsible for Indonesian success. Mexico provides a clear-cut example of the resource curse thesis, but Indonesia is an exception.     

New directions in Mexican environmental policy

Since taking office 1 December 1988, Mexico's incumbent president, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, has introduced important innovations in environmental policy that distinguish his administration from those of his predecessors. Greater administrative continuity, improved regulatory capacity achieved through statutory change, focused priorities centering on pollution abatement in Mexico City, and an aggressive search for external financing for pollution control are hallmarks of Salinas' approach. The success of these environmental reforms depends heavily on economic recovery, however, and environmental policy still suffers from underfunding, bureaucratic fragmentation, and heavy reliance on voluntarist enforcement mechanisms. Recently, U.S. congressional debate on a proposed free trade agreement with Mexico has been a factor in spurring the Salinas government to take new antipollution and conservation measures. Mexico's growing environmental movement is also an important force behind the government's new responsiveness in environmental matters. The Salinas administration recognizes the issue's political salience and has sought to defuse environmental criticism using a large arsenal of resources at its disposal. Salinas' environmental policy strategy may thus be characterized as both proactive and reactive in nature. While the reforms are evidence that Mexico is beginning to take environmental matters more seriously, economic recovery and sustained environmental activism remain vital to further progress.     

Who participates in conservation initiatives? Case studies in six rural communities of Mexico

Previous studies attempting to explain the factors that determine local participation in conservation initiatives have concluded that socio-political exclusion is the main barrier to being involved in such initiatives. Such studies have not differentiated between different types of conservation initiatives. In this paper, we contribute to the literature analyzing the socio-cultural correlates of participation, by differentiating between participation in three types of conservation schemes: protected areas, payment for environmental services, and community conservation. We use data obtained from six rural communities in Mexico, where different combinations of conservation schemes are found. Through linear regression analysis, we explore the relationship between participation and (1) the community of residence; (2) demographics; and (3) socioeconomic characteristics of individuals. Our results suggest that local participation in conservation strategies depends, to a large extent, on the socio-political context in which they are embedded and that the exclusion of women and young adults is clearly consistent.     

Potential Ecological Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Buffel Grass in Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract:  Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity. Such is the case of buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distributions, suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the arid and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.     

The capital gains from trade are not enough: evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country cannot endure negative genuine savings for long periods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless, theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter of non-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negative genuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one alleges that the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in the terms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings of the resource exporter. The second alternative points at technological change as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the data of Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these two hypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms of trade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reserves in these two open economies.     

Effect of El Nĩno on demographic,morphological, and chemical parameters in turtle-grass (Thalassia testudinum): an unexpected test of indicators

We examined the response of demographic, morphological, and chemical parameters of turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum), to much-higher-than-normal rainfall associated with an El Niño event in the winter of 1997–1998. Up to 20 inches of added rain fell between December 1997 and March 1998, triggering widespread and persistent phytoplankton blooms along the west coast of Florida. Water-column chlorophyll concentrations estimated from serial SeaWiFS imagery were much higher during the El Niño event than in the previous or following years, although the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms varied among sites. Seagrass samples collected in 1997, 1998, and 1999 provided an excellent opportunity to test the responsiveness of Thalassia to decline and subsequent improvement of water quality and clarity in four estuaries. Using a scoring technique based on temporal responsiveness, spatial consistency, and statistical strength of indicators, we found that several morphological parameters (Thalassia shoot density, blade width, blade number, and shoot-specific leaf area) were responsive and consistent measures of light stress. Some morphological parameters, such as rhizome apex density, responded to declines and subsequent improvement in water clarity, but lacked the statistical discriminating power necessary to be useful indicators. However, rhizome sugar, starch, and the total carbohydrate concentrations also exhibited spatially and temporally consistent variation as well as statistical strength. Because changes in shoot density, as well as water clarity, affect rhizome carbohydrate levels, a composite metric based on Thalassia shoot density and rhizome carbohydrate levels together is probably more useful than either parameter alone as an indicator of seagrass health.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.