ALGAL BLOOM PROBABILITY IN A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LAKE1

ABSTRACT: Algal blooms, defined as chlorophyll α concentrations greater than 40 μg l^?1, are common in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Using logistic regression techniques, we have developed equations that relate limnological variables to algal bloom occurrence in four distinct open-water regions of this large shallow lake: central pelagic, northwest, southwest, and a transition region between the western and pelagic regions. Wind velocity and total phosphorus, which are closely related to resuspended material in the central region, are negatively related to algal bloom occurrence there. In the transition region, algal bloom occurrence is positively related to total nitrogen and wind velocity. Algal bloom occurrence is strongly and positively related to total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in the western regions. The logistic regression model predicts an algal bloom probability greater than 95 percent in the northwest region when total phosphorus exceeds 0.10 mg l^?1 and total nitrogen exceeds 2.5 mg l^?1. In the southwest region the model predicts algal bloom probability of 100 percent when total phosphorus exceeds 0.10 mg l^?1 and total nitrogen exceeds 2.8 mg l^?1. Given 1994 mean total phosphorus concentrations of 0.05 and 0.04 mg l^?1 in the northwest and southwest regions, respectively, total nitrogen would have to remain below 1.32 and 1.43 mg l^?1, respectively, to keep the algal bloom probability below 10 percent. Because the lake is heterogenous, such nutrient standards should be considered on an in-lake regional basis for Lake Okeechobee.     

重庆雾的声雷达回波与大气SO2浓度的对比分析

本文分析了重庆１９８９年１２月３０日雾的声雷达回波特征与浓雾天气的关系，讨论了雾日大气ＳＯ２地面浓度状况。结果表明，声雷达回波与雾的定变有较好的对应；地面污染物浓度与声雷达回波所反应的大气层结状况关系密切，３００－４００米高度上的逆温层维持较长时间是加重当日大气ＳＯ２地面浓度的重要原因。     

烃类流体火灾伤害破坏作用定量分析

对烃类流体火灾的伤害破坏作用进行正确的定量分析是开展重大消防目标火灾风险评估工作的基础。针对烃类流体火灾伤害破坏作用定量分析中存在的问题,系统论述烃类流体火灾伤害破坏作用的定量分析方法,分析并讨论火球、池火、喷射火和蒸气云火灾等不同火灾形式的热辐射通量计算模型及其前提条件,对不同热辐射伤害破坏作用准则及伤害概率模型的适用条件和模型基础进行了论述。     

南京冬季一次强浓雾及超细粒子累积过程分析

课题组于2017年冬季在南京北郊开展了为期45d的雾/霾外场综合观测，并选取12月30~31日一次平流辐射雾过程，分析了气象要素、雾和气溶胶的宏微观特征.结果表明：冷平流与夜间辐射冷却造成的持续性降温为此次雾发展的主要原因，而短波辐射增强则为雾消散的主导因子；此次雾过程存在爆发性增长的特征，表现为17min内含水量的量级由10-4g/m³增加至10-1g/m³，其中雾滴数浓度的增加对其贡献率可达67%；强浓雾微物理量的时间变率波动性强，雾的水平分布存在显著的不均匀性特征；日出后的强浓雾阶段中存在纳米级气溶胶累积现象，空气动力学直径在10~50nm气溶胶的数浓度增加率可达2817cm^-3/h，从二次气溶胶生成（SO₂的气-粒及气-液转化过程）、输送（人为活动造成的气溶胶累积及雾中垂直向湍流的输送）等方面探讨现象出现的原因.     

1961-2007年期间南宁紫外线辐射的变化趋势及其与皮肤癌发病相关分析

采用2002年9月至2005年10月逐日太阳总辐射、云量、太阳天顶角、臭氧、水汽压、空气污染物和紫外线辐射资料,建立了基于气象要素推算紫外线曝辐量的模型;采用该模型重建1961-2007逐日紫外线曝辐量资料,从年、春、夏、秋、冬不同尺度分析重建序列的特征;采用1991-2003年皮肤癌发病人数资料,分析紫外线曝辐量与各类皮肤癌发病人数相关性;对未来紫外线变化进行展望。主要结论有:1961-2007年,南宁紫外线曝辐量年平均日值为95.83 W.h/m2;绝对变率以夏季最大,相对变率以冬季最大,秋季绝对变率和相对变率均最小;年平均和春、夏、秋季紫外线曝辐量有微弱的下降趋势,冬季下降趋势明显;突变主要发生在1970 s中后期至1980 s初期和1990 s初期;年和各季最显著的周期是准7年,夏季还有明显的11年周期;1991-2003年鳞状细胞癌发病人数与紫外线曝辐量相关显著;基底细胞癌、鳞状细胞癌、恶性黑色瘤3种皮肤癌均好发于高紫外线辐射时间;展望2050年以前紫外线变化情况,认为:偏高年份可能在2017、2031、2045年附近,偏低年份可能在2010、2024、2038年附近。     

Impact of generated solar radiation on simulated crop growth and yield

The availability of observed daily solar radiation (OSR) is restricted to recent years. Its estimation through different methods is necessary to develop long-term data sets for agricultural and environmental applications. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of using generated daily solar radiation (GSR) on simulated growth and yield of cotton, maize, and peanut. Nine locations representing Georgia's major crop belt were selected. Daily weather data from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (AEMN), including solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation, were duplicated. The OSR was removed from one set and then generated using a stochastic procedure. The Cropping System Models (CSM)-CROPGRO-Cotton, CERES-Maize, and CROPGRO-Peanut of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) v4 were used to simulate crop growth and yield at each location with both OSR and GSR and for rainfed and irrigated conditions. The statistical analysis included summary statistics, Pearson's coefficient of correlation, mean squared deviation (MSD) and its components, namely: squared bias (SB), squared difference between standard deviations (SDSD), lack of correlation weighted by the standard deviations (LCS), and regressions. Within locations, for the three crops under rainfed and irrigated conditions, GSR did not significantly affect simulated total evapotranspiration and aboveground biomass and yields. For the three crops, deviations of simulated water use and yields from GSR with respect to simulated water use and yields from OSR were lower for the rainfed than for the irrigated conditions. Yields from the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton and -Peanut models had lower deviations than yields from the CSM-CERES-Maize model. LCS was the major component of the MSD suggesting that the extent of the difference between standard deviations of GSR and OSRG could affect the outputs of the crop models. Nevertheless, for most locations none of the MSD components of the GSR showed significant correlation with simulated yields and the overall performance of the models was not affected. It can be concluded based on the results of this study that GSR can be used as an input for crop model simulation models when OSR is not available.     

Radiation Crosslinking of Poly(Butylene Succinate) in the Presence of Inorganic Material and Its Biodegradability

Three kinds of poly(butylene succinate)s (PBS) with different molecular weight were irradiated with electron beams in the presence of inorganic material. Fourteen kinds of inorganic materials were used in this work. The presence of inorganic material inside cross-linked PBS samples enhances the yield of gel formation. The heat stabilities of PBS samples were checked; it was found that silicon dioxide and carbon black significantly improve these properties. Enzymatic and soil burial tests were performed; the presence of these inorganic materials in cross-linked PBS accelerates the rate of biodegradation.     

移动基站近距离区域电磁辐射污染分布特征

针对居住在城市移动基站附近的居民日益关注的电磁辐射污染问题,通过移动基站近距离区域电磁场分布连续24h监测与分析,研究正常工作日内基站周围近距离区域电磁场功率密度随时间和距离的变化,以及功率密度的概率分布,并根据24h各时段内的话务量,使用统计分析(SAS)系统对此影响因素进行相关性分析.结果显示,一天内移动基站天线附近电磁辐射随时间呈现明显的波动,其功率密度的概率分布接近正态分布,手机的话务量与电磁场强度具有一定的相关性.在近距离区域,功率密度随距离增加,在一定距离上出现峰值,峰值出现的距离与天线高度有关.对我国一般的城市基站,环境电磁辐射低于标准限值.     

特殊人工环境对武器装备的危害

给出了在战争条件下特殊人工环境的定义,并举例说明了人工环境在古今战役中的应用,具体阐述了烟尘环境、核环境、电磁辐射环境和生化有毒沾染环境等4种特殊人工环境对武器装备各方面的危害,最后指出了在现代高技术战争中研究特殊人工环境对武器装备危害的重要性和必要性.