滇池水质时间序列变化趋势识别及特征分析

应用STL(Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using LOESS)方法对1998—2010年滇池外海8个监测站点、10个水质指标的时间序列数据进行递归迭代,分解出低频率的趋势项、高频率的周期项及随机残差项.在此基础上计算稳态变化指数(RSI),对水质趋势的时、空变化特征进行识别和判定.结果表明,在分析的13年间,滇池外海8个监测站点各指标变化趋势总体一致;BOD5总体呈下降趋势,高锰酸盐指数(COD Mn)总体趋势显著上升,说明有机物可生化性下降;富营养化状态加剧,总氮(TN)总体趋势上升,并逐渐成为藻类的限制性营养盐,总磷(TP)浓度为劣V类,氨氮在氮元素形态中的主导地位正逐渐降低.研究结果表明,"十二五"期间滇池应重点控制氮磷、兼顾有机物污染.     

华南滨海小流域降雨入渗对地下水的补给分析

以华南滨海小流域——中山大学滨海水循环试验基地（试验基地）作为研究区,在对该流域地下水和雨水分别进行采样、实验分析的基础上,利用氯量平衡法（CMB）与地下水动态法计算了该流域的降雨入渗补给系数与给水度。研究发现,试验基地地下水主要受降雨补给,地下水埋深在雨季（4—9月）、旱季（10—3月）的变动范围大致为0～1.5 m与0～0.5 m。根据CMB计算结果,补给区、中间区雨季降雨入渗补给系数分别为旱季的1.3～1.6倍和1.3～2.0倍,且补给区大于中间区（M5井除外）。利用地下水动态法计算次降雨入渗补给系数,所得雨季、旱季的均值（7.6%和4.6%）与CMB计算结果（7.7%和5.3%）较为接近。给水度、雨强与入渗补给系数均存在一定的线性关系。将地下水埋深分别与降雨入渗补给量及潜水蒸发量进行多项式拟合对比,发现降雨入渗对地下水的最大入渗补给埋深约为2.3 m,当埋深为3.1 m时,地下水可获得最大净补给量。     

Economic and social effects analysis of mineral development in China and policy implications

Mineral development has contributed greatly to China's economic and social development. Many challenges remain, however, including environmental pollution and resource waste in practice, as well as a dearth of systematic theoretical research. The goal of this study is to analyze the economic and social effects of various mineral developments in China from diversified perspectives, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of China's mineral development policy. The input–output effects, industrial linkage effects and income distribution effects of different mining industries are quantitatively analyzed by adopting basic hypotheses of input–output economics, industrial linkage model and income distribution antitheses based on the latest available official data from China Statistical Yearbook from 2004 to 2010 and the 2007 Input–Output Table of China. The empirical results obtained in this study indicate that all mineral development industries, especially coal mining and washing, and petroleum and natural gas extraction industries, have given a strong impetus to the increase of China's fixed asset investment and GDP. Moreover, they have provided a large number of jobs, thereby alleviating ongoing employment pressure, and they have also played a positive role in promoting China's technology investment. The analysis of industrial linkages demonstrates that mining industries are basic to the national economy and produce a significant impetus to its downstream industries, but create weak pull effects in terms of national economic development. From the perspective of income distribution, mining industries play an important role in increasing China's fiscal revenue and per capital income. Hence, China's mineral development policy should (1) encourage additional investment in technology for exploration and development to insure sufficient supply and expand the input effects; (2) attract additional talent to work in remote regions; (3) optimize the industrial structure and promote the industrial transformation in resource regions; (4) adjust the interest distribution between the central and local governments to enable the local regions to become more self-sufficient; and (5) enhance the legal environment so that companies can more readily undertake their social responsibilities voluntarily.     

硅藻群落指示的近50年来大理西湖湖泊生态系统演变规律

近年来,增强的人类活动使得云南部分湖泊生态系统发生退化,由草型清水态向藻型浊水态转变.全球变化背景下,了解湖泊生态系统演变规律是进行有效管理的前提,具有重要的科学意义.本研究以云南大理州小型浅水湖泊西湖为例,通过对沉积物硅藻群落和理化指标的分析,探讨了20世纪60年代中期以来大理西湖环境演变历程.结果表明,大理西湖生态系统在近50年发生了明显的稳态转换,以2000年为节点,硅藻群落从2000年前偏好贫营养环境的底栖附生种Cocconeis placentula、Staurosira construens、Gomphonema angustum和Achnanthidium minutissimum为优势种的状态,逐渐演替为偏好中营养环境的底栖附生硅藻Encyonopsis microcephala和Navicula cryptocephala及偏好富营养环境的浮游硅藻Cyclotella atomus、Cyclotella meneghiniana、Stephanodiscus hantzschii和Aulacoseira granulata为主导的状态.时间序列的主成分分析表明,硅藻群...     

火灾环境下热-冷循环作用对混凝土性能的影响研究

为了研究混凝土材料的结构与力学特征受火灾热-冷作用的影响规律,通过测量不同热-冷作用次数下的试样质量和密度损失率定量表征了混凝土结构损伤程度;通过开展单轴压缩实验对热-冷作用对其力学行为的变化规律进行了研究;最后进行XRD衍射实验和SEM扫描电子显微镜对混凝土的成分与微观结构进行探测.实验结果表明:在火灾热-冷作用下,...