提高碳汇潜力：量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响

全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。     

The Spanish building crisis and its effect in the gypsum quarry production (1998–2012)

Gypsum is one of the most important mined mineral commodities of the world. As an industrial rock, it is primarily used by the construction industry. Therefore, the economics of the gypsum market can be correlated with parameters that have controlled the origin and development of the Spanish building bubble between years 1998 and 2006. The burst of this building bubble has been interpreted as the main triggering factor for Spain's current crisis.     

大坝下游河段的河流生态径流调控研究

了分析大坝工程对河流径流情势的影响,以三峡大坝下游河段的宜昌站为例,计算了三峡坝下河段的生态水文季节、生态需水和其它径流情势特征参数。计算结果表明,长江宜昌江段枯水期为1~3月份、副汛期为4~6月份和10~12月份,而洪水期为7~9月份;枯水期、副汛期和洪水期的最小生态需量占同期来水总量分别为24%~27%、30%~50%和30%~45%;适宜的生态需水在枯水期、主汛期分别占同时期来水总量为30%~42%、50%~70%;四大家鱼和中华鲟产卵、繁殖期内的适宜生态流量范围分别为 6 540~12 700 m3/s 和 16 300~9 130 m3/s,大约占同时期来水总量的50%~70%;涨水次数平均值分别为5.3和3.4,落水次数平均值分别为50和5.1等,这为三峡水库在四大家鱼和中华鲟产卵、繁殖期内的调度提供了保护的依据。〖     

A practical real option methodology for the evaluation of farm-in/out joint venture agreements in mineral exploration

Although the “real option valuation” (ROV) methodology offers extremely valuable insights in optimising investment decisions in the face of uncertainty, its practical acceptance in the mining industry has until recently been slow because of its perceived computational complexity. Recent conceptual advances in the use of binomial lattices and software developments in the areas of decision trees and dynamic programming, have significantly simplified ROV analysis and made it of practical application in day-to-day financial evaluations and decisions involving uncertainty. This paper provides general background on the ROV methodology and an example of how a typical farm-in/out agreement, as a preliminary to the establishment of a joint venture (JV), can be valued as a series of sequential and compound real options. For illustrative and quality assurance purposes, a simple farm-in/out agreement is valued from the point of view of the party acquiring equity in the project (the farm-inee) using two distinct methods, i.e. (a) a binomial lattice and (b) a decision tree in combination with binomial stochastic processes, in both cases neutralising risk using the user-friendly “risk-neutral probability”. The fact that exactly the same ROV is obtained by both methods provides confidence in the modified decision tree approach, which opens up the capacity to value the more complex sequential/compound real options inherent in real-life farm-in/out agreements. The model is then modified to incorporate a number of realistic contractual conditions often encountered in typical exploration and mining farm-in/out deals. The paper demonstrates how the increased complexity of the model can be relatively easily addressed using a decision tree with dynamic programming capability.     

Development of a coupled reservoir operation and water diversion model: Balancing human and environmental flow requirements

Maintaining a natural flow regime helps preserve the health of riverine ecosystems. Conventional studies on reservoir operations have focused mainly on identifying optimal operational schemes for satisfying human water demands. To systematically reflect the ecological effects of both natural and human-induced hydrologic alterations, water diversions downstream of the reservoirs should be considered as well. This research focused on a coupled reservoir operation and water diversion (CROWD) model, created through the integration of a reservoir operation model and a water diversion model. The proposed model considers both human and environmental flow requirements, and represents a compromise that balances ecological protection (preservation of the natural flow regime of a river) and human needs (reduced water shortages). In the reservoir operation model, the reservoir space is divided into three zones and different operating rules are developed for directing reservoir operation when water levels are in different zones; in the water diversion model, different water users are assigned different supply priorities with the instream flows no more than the minimum environmental flows having the highest priority; and the two models are coupled by the water mass balance between the two hydraulic facilities. The non-dominated-sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was used to determine the parameters of the developed CROWD model and the model was applied to support the joint operational management of the Tanghe Reservoir and the Liaoyang Diversion in the Tang river basin, China. The resulting reservoir operation and water diversion schemes indicate that the CROWD model is useful for optimizing the operation of reservoirs and water diversion schemes. Moreover, it helps to analyze tradeoffs between human and environmental water needs, resulting in solutions that reduce the risk of water shortages and minimize ecological integrity disturbances.     

Simulating a natural fire regime on an Atlantic coast barrier island complex in Florida, USA

The HFire fire regime model was used to simulate the natural fire regime (prior to European settlement) on Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Canaveral National Seashore, and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. Model simulations were run for 500 years and the model was parameterized using information generated from previously published empirical studies on these properties (e.g., lightning fire ignition frequencies and ignition seasonality). A mosaic pattern of frequent small fires dominated this fire regime with rare but extremely large fires occurring during dry La Niña periods. This simulated fire size distribution very closely matched the previously published fire size distribution for lightning ignitions on these properties. A sensitivity analysis was performed to establish which parameters were most influential and the range of variation surrounding empirically parameterized model output. Dead fuel moisture and wind speed had the largest influence on model outcome. A wide range of variance was observed surrounding the composite simulation with the least being 6% in total burn frequency and the greatest being 49% in total area burned. Because simulation modeling is the best option for fire regime reconstruction in many rapidly growing shrub dominated systems, these results will be of interest to scientists and fire managers for delineating the natural fire regime on these properties, the southeastern United States and other fire adapted shrub systems worldwide.     

华南滨海小流域降雨入渗对地下水的补给分析

以华南滨海小流域——中山大学滨海水循环试验基地(试验基地)作为研究区,在对该流域地下水和雨水分别进行采样、实验分析的基础上,利用氯量平衡法(CMB)与地下水动态法计算了该流域的降雨入渗补给系数与给水度。研究发现,试验基地地下水主要受降雨补给,地下水埋深在雨季(4—9月)、旱季(10—3月)的变动范围大致为0～1.5 m与0～0.5 m。根据CMB计算结果,补给区、中间区雨季降雨入渗补给系数分别为旱季的1.3～1.6倍和1.3～2.0倍,且补给区大于中间区(M5井除外)。利用地下水动态法计算次降雨入渗补给系数,所得雨季、旱季的均值(7.6%和4.6%)与CMB计算结果(7.7%和5.3%)较为接近。给水度、雨强与入渗补给系数均存在一定的线性关系。将地下水埋深分别与降雨入渗补给量及潜水蒸发量进行多项式拟合对比,发现降雨入渗对地下水的最大入渗补给埋深约为2.3 m,当埋深为3.1 m时,地下水可获得最大净补给量。     

长期不同施肥方式对江南稻田系统生产力与抗逆性的影响

依据29 a的田间施肥小区试验和4 a的养分耗竭盆栽试验,比较分析了不同施肥方式对江南丘陵稻田生产力及抗逆性的综合影响。结果表明,有机无机肥配施(NPK+OM处理)方式下,双季稻各季和周年生产力最高,其周年平均生物量和籽粒产量比化肥氮磷钾配施(NPK处理)高24.5%和20.2%。与单施氮肥相比,化肥氮磷钾配施显著提高了双季稻的氮素利用效率,而适量增施有机氮能够进一步提高氮素利用效率。化肥单施方式(N和NPK处理)下水稻周年籽粒产量呈递减趋势,下降幅度分别为43.7和1.8 kg.hm-2.a-1,而有机无机肥配施方式下水稻周年籽粒产量呈递增趋势,上升幅度为6.9 kg.hm-2.a-1。平衡施肥方式(NPK和NPK+OM处理)下,水稻各季及周年籽粒产量的年际变异较小,可持续性产量指数和系统生产力稳定性较高。养分耗竭试验4 a后,各处理水稻各季及周年生物量和籽粒产量高低基本表现为NPK+OM>NPK>N,试验期内周年籽粒平均产量以有机无机肥配施处理最高,说明有机无机肥配施的稻田土壤耐瘠能力高于其他施肥处理。可见,有机无机肥配施不仅能使稻田系统持续保持较高的生产力,而且能够提升系统的抗逆性,有利于江南丘陵稻田系...     

粤港澳大湾区污染场地土壤风险管控制度体系建设与思考

防范污染场地环境风险和保障人居环境安全是粤港澳大湾区建设世界级城市群面临的重要挑战和工作内容之一.由于粤港澳在政治制度和土地管理等方面的差异,以及珠三角9市内部城市化水平、产业结构以及环境管理能力的差别,大湾区各地污染场地风险管控模式有明显的差异,分析粤港澳大湾区典型城市污染场地风险管控特点,对加强污染场地风险管控技术交流与合作,优化大湾区污染场地风险管控制度具有重要意义.本文在简述我国污染场地风险管控制度体系的基础上,重点介绍了广州、深圳、东莞、香港和澳门的污染场地风险管控制度体系、监管对象、污染评估与整治程序等的特点,对其风险管控制度体系进行了分析与对比,并针对土地规划、政策反馈、信息公开及联盟机制探索等提出了思考与建议.总体来看,香港及珠三角部分地市构建了行之有效的污染场地风险管控制度体系,且体现了一定的地方特点,但随着污染场地的进一步开发再利用,打造粤港澳大湾区世界级城市群的建设目标将对污染场地风险管控策略的安全性、精细化和时效性等提出更高的要求,互相借鉴和充分学习,加强大湾区2区9市污染场地风险管控上的技术交流与合作,是实现大湾区污染场地安全再利用与高效开发的有效路径.     

Mine size optimization using marginal analysis

In this study, a model to estimate the optimum mine size is developed. The model is developed on the basis of marginal analysis. The model solves for the production rate at which the present value of marginal costs equals the present value of marginal revenues—the rate that microeconomic theory shows will maximize the net present value of production from the mine.In addition, the article discusses the effects on the optimum production rate of: the physical characteristics of the deposit, economic factors, and financial factors. It has been found that, not surprisingly, as the reserve tonnage increases, the optimum mine size increases. Also, the optimum production rate increases as the ore grade increases. A direct relationship has been found between the mineral price and the optimum production rate. The optimum mine size is found to be inversely related to the expected growth rate of mineral price, while it is directly related to the expected growth rate of mining costs. A concave relationship has been found between the cost of capital and the optimum mine size.