SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: COMBINING NOMINAL GROUP PROCESS AND MICROCOMPUTERS1

ABSTRACT: The growing concern for public participation in water resource decision-making has invited researchers to improve and develop reliable, quick, and inexpensive techniques for measuring public preferences. It is increasingly clear that traditional participation mechanisms, though useful, are no longer sufficient in providing the level of participation desired by many. A combination of microcomputer technology with Nominal Group Process (a step-by-step process ending in ranked recommendations) offers numerous possibilities for active participatory planning. Efforts at participation occurring through a well developed and defined process cannot be successful without a sensitivity to the conceptual, methodological, and pragmatic problems involved. This paper prefaces presentation of an alternative active process technique with discussion of the theoretical basis of participatory democracy and the frustration with practical implementation procedures.     

Indonesia's developing forest industry

Indonesia is a major exporter of tropical hardwoods. The country's goal is to establish integrated wood industries by reducing the export of unprocessed sawlogs. The value of hardwood sawlog exports has decreased by twothirds in 1986 dollars since 1978, while the value of hardwood sawnwood and plywood exports has increased sixfold. Sawlog exports are now banned. This article contrasts the official governmental policy on forest industry development with the operational realities of doing business in Indonesia.     

Riera de Caldes new town: the restriction of growth

The historical and regional context to the development of a planning strategy for Barcelona is examined, providing an explanation of the obstacles to development of new towns in the region, and that of Riera de Caldes in particular. The paper analyses the reasons for the failure to develop the new town, and its subsequent reversion to rural uses and a place of pilgrimage for environmentalists.     

APPROACHES TO WATER RESOURCE POLICY AND PLANNING IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Texas is one of the states in which limitations in water supplies could severely constrain economic growth in certain areas. The traditional planning approach for addressing this problem has involved devising schemes for large water development projects, which for many years included the importation of water from other states. Now the attitude towards water resource management is changing, and it is generally agreed that better management of existing supplies is the preferred approach. In this paper we review some of the changes that have recently occurred in Texas, including attempts to streamline the water institutions in such a way that they might be more responsive to the need for more comprehensive management of water resources statewide, with greater emphasis on social and environmental concerns.     

MEASURED AND PREDICTED VELOCITY AND LONGITUDINAL DISPERSION AT STEAI)Y AND UNSTEADY FLOW,COLORADO RIVER,GLEN CANYON DAM TO LAKE MEAD1

ABSTRACT: The effect of unsteadiness of dam releases on velocity and longitudinal dispersion of flow was evaluated by injecting a fluorescent dye into the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam and sampling for dye concentration at selected sites downstream. Measurements of a 26-kilometer reach of Glen Canyon, just below Glen Canyon Dam, were made at nearly steady dam releases of 139, 425, and 651 cubic meters per second. Measurements of a 380-kilometer reach of Grand Canyon were made at steady releases of 425 cubic meters per second and at unsteady releases with a daily mean of about 425 cubic meters per second. In Glen Canyon, average flow velocity through the study reach increased directly with discharge, but dispersion was greatest at the lowest of the three flows measured. In Grand Canyon, average flow velocity varied slightly from subreach to subreach at both steady and unsteady flow but was not significantly different at steady and unsteady flow over the entire study reach. Also, longitudinal dispersion was not significantly different during steady and unsteady flow. Long tails on the time-concentration curves at a site, characteristic of most rivers but not predicted by the one-dimensional theory, were not found in this study. Absence of tails on the curves shows that, at the measured flows, the eddies that are characteristic of the Grand Canyon reach do not trap water for a significant length of time. Data from the measurements were used to calibrate a one-dimensional flow model and a solute-transport model. The combined set of calibrated flow and solute-transport models was then used to predict velocity and dispersion at potential dam-release patterns.     

THE LAW OF THE COLORADO RIVER: COPING WITH SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The waters of the Colorado River are divided among seven states according to a complex ‘Law of the River’ drawn from interstate compacts, international treaties, statutes, and regulations. The Law of the River creates certain priorities among the states and the Republic of Mexico, and in the event of a severe sustained drought, the Law of the River dictates the distribution of water and operation of the elaborate reservoir system. Earlier work indicated that there is remarkable resilience in the system for established uses of water in the Lower Basin of the Colorado River. This work shows, based on an application of the Law of the River using computer modeling of operations of facilities on the Colorado River, that there may be serious environmental consequences and related legal restraints on how the water is used in times of shortage and that the existing legal and institutional framework governing the Colorado River does not adequately address all the issues that would be raised in a severe sustained drought. Several possible legal options for dealing with drought in the context of the Law of the River are identified.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

走出环境污染的怪圈——就环境论环境不能解决环境问题

历史的经验告诉我们，就环境论环境不能解决环境问题。本文从分析当今时代的特点出发，剖析了我国环境污染形势，最后论述如何走出环境污染的怪圈．经济增长不等于经济发展，但可持续发展却是永恒的主题．解决环境问题必须改变传统发展战略，发展是硬道理，但我们讲的发展是全社会的持续、协调、全面发展。解振华局长说：“工业污染是环境污染的主要来源”。经济增长的源泉在企业，经济增长的动力是企业利益，经济增长的压力是市场的竞争，经济增长的持续是协调发展。只顾产值不讲效益的观念必须改变，环境问题的解决必须和国家的经济发展、科学技术、社会稳定统一考虑，必须纳入国家整体战略，环境问题才能进步解决。