The main and added effects of heat on mortality in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013

● The main and added effect from heat co-existed in China. ● Both of the main and added effect could increase the mortality risk of population. ● Females, the elderly, the less educated and inland residents were more vulnerable. Increases in ambient temperatures and the frequency of extreme heat events constitute important burdens on global public health. However, evidence on their effects on public health is limited and inconclusive in China. In this study, data on daily deaths recorded in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013 was used to evaluate the effect of heat on mortality in China. In addition to the definition of a heatwave established by the China Meteorological Administration, we combined four city-specific relative thresholds (90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles) of the daily mean temperature during the study period and three durations of ≥ 2, ≥ 3, and ≥ 4 days, from which 13 heatwave definitions were developed. Then, we estimated the main and added effects of heat at the city level using a quasi-Poisson generalized additive model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Next, the estimates for the effects were pooled at the national level using a multivariable meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis was performed according to sex, age, educational attainment, and spatially stratified heterogeneity. The results showed that the mortality risk increased from 22.3% to 37.1% due to the effects of the different heatwave definitions. The added effects were much lower, with the highest increase of 3.9% (95% CI: 1.7%–6.1%) in mortality risk. Females, the elderly, populations with low educational levels, and populations living inland in China were found to be the most vulnerable to the detrimental effects of heat. These findings have important implications for the improvement of early warning systems for heatwaves.     

Using NDVI to Assess Vegetative Land Cover Change in Central Puget Sound

We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the rapidly growing Puget Sound region over three 5-year time blocks between 1986–1999 at three spatial scales in 42 Watershed Administrative Units (WAUs) to assess changes in the amounts and patterns of green vegetation. On average, approximately 20% of the area in each WAU experienced significant NDVI change over each 5-year time block. Cumulative NDVI change over 15 years (summing change over each 5-year time block) was an average of approximately 60% of each WAU, but was as high as 100% in some. At the regional scale, seasonal weather patterns and green-up from logging were the primary drivers of observed increases in NDVI values. At the WAU scale, anthropogenic factors were important drivers of both positive and negative NDVI change. For example, population density was highly correlated with negative NDVI change over 15 years (r = 0.66, P < 0.01), as was road density (r = 0.71, P < 0.01). At the smallest scale (within 3 case study WAUs) land use differences such as preserving versus harvesting forest lands drove vegetation change. We conclude that large areas within most watersheds are continually and heavily impacted by the high levels of human use and development over short time periods. Our results indicate that varying patterns and processes can be detected at multiple scales using changes in NDVIa values.     

汕头市海岸湿地自然保护区主要水鸟的种群数量及分布

汕头市海岸湿地自然保护区是我国三大候鸟迁徙路线涉及区之一;分布64种水鸟,约占汕头鸟类总种数的51.2%。汕头海岸湿地自然保护区给鸟类提供了广阔的活动空间和丰富的食物来源,每年都有超过了3万只以上的候鸟类在此停留或越冬,是重要的国际候鸟迁徙区及水禽繁衍区。     

四川省人口分布与土地利用的关系及人口数据空间化试验

通过对四川省158个市县中人口密度小于1 000人/km2的151个市县的人口密度与各种土地利用指数的多元回归分析发现,人口密度与各种土地利用指数的多元线性相关系数为0.93,人口密度的对数与各种土地利用指数的多元线性相关系数为0.96。根据这一关系对四川省1999年的市县人口统计数据进行空间化,用罗江县的实际乡镇人口数据对空间化结果进行检验。结果为通过空间化得到的各乡镇的人口数与各乡镇的实际人口数的相关系数为0.91,平均误差为16.5%。     

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.     

野化培训大熊猫采食和人为砍伐对拐棍竹无性系种群生物量的影响

采用固定样方法和定位观察法连续测定了2003～2007年间卧龙自然保护区大熊猫野化培训圈内及其附近区域的拐棍竹无性系种群数量和生长发育特性等参数,运用收获法与非破坏性重量估测法建立了不同龄级和残桩的竹子种群和分株生物量估测模型,进而利用最佳模型计算并评估了野化培训大熊猫采食和人为砍伐对拐棍竹无性系种群生物量和植株个体生物量的影响.结果表明:在环境条件、种群密度、生长发育特征和种群生物量等基本相似的基础上,大熊猫采食和人为砍伐不仅降低实验期间的竹子生物生产力,而且影响到后期阶段实验种群的恢复与发展.大熊猫采食样方中的竹子种群生物量虽然较对照样方低,就竹笋生物量而言,约为对照的57.79%,这与野化培训圈的面积较小、竹种单一而使采食比重(67.07%)较大有关,但其各龄级植株个体生物量均能达到大熊猫的取食利用标准(仅2004年生竹除外),具有持续供给大熊猫食物资源的潜力;而人为砍伐措施与大熊猫采食相比,影响效果极为强烈,它严重降低了拐棍竹无性系的种群生物量,尤其是竹笋重量更是如此,仅为对照样方的14.69%,且植株个体鲜重远低于大熊猫的觅食条件.因此,竹笋和无性系植株的生物量是大熊猫采食标准的主要因素.     

基于Bayes方法的渤海渔业资源动态评析

研究利用来自于黄渤海渔政局的内部统计资料,采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对渤海渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,评析结果显示:渤海渔业资源的环境容纳量为3.5×10⁶~5.5×10⁶ t;渔业资源综合种群的内禀增长率r为0.9~1.6;1979年渔业资源年平均生物量为2 332 523 t,尔后持续上升到1985年的最高值4 251 292 t,1985年以后又持续下降到2002年的最低值2 250 709 t;渤海渔业资源的最大持续产量MSY约为140×10⁴ t左右;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量约为817 771 kW, 到1991年捕捞努力量增加到963 564 kW,此时已超过获得MSY时需要的捕捞努力量,即从1991年开始出现捕捞过度。     

人口结构变化影响下的城镇建筑能耗研究

从人口的家庭结构、年龄结构、城乡结构变化的角度对城镇建筑能耗的变化进行了分析.根据测算,2010~2030年,中国20~39岁的人口从4.46亿下降到3.28亿,减少约1.18亿;2030年全国的平均家庭规模从3.10人下降到2.48人,全国家庭数量将突破5.5亿户;按照现有模式发展,2030年城市化率达到64.2%.人口结构变化的影响下,2020年的城镇建筑需求总面积为3.14′1010m2,人均住宅面积为37m2,建筑能耗达到1.72′109tce;2030年的建筑需求总面积为3.84′1010m2,人均住宅面积为42m2,能耗为2.13′109tce. 从需求角度看,未来建筑规模的增长速度将逐步放缓.如果不能及时调整发展战略,未来会出现较大规模的住宅空置和资源浪费.     

Estimating population dynamics without population data

We develop a biologically correct cost system for production systems facing invasive pests that allows the estimation of population dynamics without a priori knowledge of their true values. We apply that model to a data set for olive producers in Crete and derive from it predictions about the underlying population dynamics. Those dynamics are compared to information on population dynamics obtained from pest sampling with extremely favorable results.     

基于CVM的旅游相关资源价值评估总体范围扩展方法研究

条件价值评估法(CVM)是旅游相关资源价值评估的重要方法,其评估结果的准确性主要由支付意愿(WTP)或补偿意愿(WTA)和总体范围扩展两者决定。目前,国内外关于CVM方法的相关研究主要是针对提高WTP(或WTA)的准确性,而关于总体范围扩展方法的相关研究较少。国外旅游相关资源价值评估总体范围主要扩展为使用者,或资源所在区域的家庭,或资源所在邻近区域的家庭;国内主要扩展为使用者,或资源所在区域的居民,或资源所在区域的就业者,或全国范围的相关居民或就业者;这些总体范围扩展方法均存在一些缺陷。论文以调查样本信息为依据,提出了一种基于旅游相关资源关注度系数(用出游小区相对旅游率表示)的非使用者总体范围扩展方法和基于游客量的使用者总体范围扩展方法,并以舟山普陀金三角景区非使用价值评估为例,以2008年为评价基准年份,进行了实证分析。结果表明:普陀金三角旅游资源非使用价值为345.83×10⁶元/a,其中非使用者贡献159.21×10⁶元/a,国内使用者贡献184.17×10⁶元/a,国外使用者贡献2.45×10⁶元/a。并与国内外各种总体范围扩展计算的结果进行对比,该结果较为合理。