Acute/chronic ratios to estimate chronic toxicity from acute data

Acute toxicity of 25 narcotic compounds to D. magna was determined in this paper. Acute/ Chronic Ratios (ACRs), which are often used to estimate chronic toxicity from acute toxicity data, are discussed based on Quantitative Structure‐Activity Relationships (QSARs) of the compounds between both acute and chronic toxicity data and n‐octanol/water partition coefficients, and an improved equation is derived to estimate chronic toxicity data from acute toxicity data. Application of the improved equation and ACRs is illustrated for D. magna and fathead minnow to estimate chronic toxicity from acute toxicity.     

The greener,the more cost efficient? An empirical study of international tourist hotels in Taiwan

Going ‘green’ is more than a mere fad in the hotel industry, and environment-friendly green hotels are becoming popular. The purpose of this study was to conduct an investigation into the link between ‘green’ and cost efficiency in the hotel industry. Empirical evidence supporting this investigation was gathered from the Taiwan hotel industry. Data were gathered from 68 international tourist hotels in Taiwan. Moreover, our finding differs from most of the earlier studies and indicates that ‘green’ is negatively and significantly associated with the cost efficiency of a hotel. In other words, ‘green’ renders a hotel ineffective. The implications of the findings have been discussed, and the limitations of the study as well as future research directions have been addressed.     

基于遥感-过程耦合模型的地表蒸散量应用研究

作为陆面过程中地气相互作用的重要过程之一,蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)在地球的大气圈-水圈-生物圈中发挥着重要作用。利用遥感-过程耦合模型BEPS,以中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为主要输入,模拟分析了2007-2009年美国区域的地表ET,同时利用通量观测网AmeriFlux的站点观测数据验证该模型在ET模拟研究中的可靠性与适应。结果表明：12个站点通量实测值与BEPS模型模拟的ET值的相关系数为0.7297(P<0.05),表明BEPS模型能够较好的模拟研究区的地表ET。ET在1年内呈现明显的单峰趋势,5-9月ET值较高,可达60 mm·mon-1以上,最小值在1月份,值为8.39 mm·mon-1,最大值在7月份,值为118.04 mm·mon-1。该区域ET的平均年总量为505 mm·a-1。受地形、气候的影响,ET最高值对应于南部区域,这些地区ET的年总量普遍在600 mm·a-1以上,最高值为1667 mm·a-1,对应的主要覆被类型为草地和农田;中北部和东部的大部分区域ET年总量为400~600 mm·a-1;ET最小值在西部区域,年总量小于400 mm·a-1,对应覆被类型为疏林地和混交林。降水量与ET差值呈现从东向西逐渐递减的趋势,最小值主要分布在西部沙漠。整个研究区域ET与降水量之比的平均值为0.72,由东向西基本呈现增加趋势,在西部以及中北部的部分地区比值达到最大。     

基于遥感技术的县级区域环境质量评价模型研究

建立了一种完全基于遥感数据的县级区域生态环境状况评价模型,该模型利用支持向量机的方法对广西钦州市钦南区HJ-1星CCD数据进行分类,提取土地利用类型,同时建立了生物丰度指数、植被覆盖度指数、水资源密度指数、土壤侵蚀指数和人类活动指数5种评价指标,对这些指数加权求和得到区域生态环境状况指数,定量化评价实验区域生态环境质量.评价结果表明,该区域整体生态环境质量良好,生态环境状况为良的区域占总面积的64.105%,主要集中在钦南区的林地区域,生态环境状况为一般的区域占31.206%,主要分布在水资源丰富的区域,而生态环境状况为差的区域则占3.668%,主要集中在人类活动频繁的城区.     

长三角地区汛期暴雨时空特征分析

为揭示长三角地区汛期暴雨时空特征,利用该地区20个气象测站1959—2005年逐日降水数据,统计不同测站年汛期(5月—9月)暴雨量、暴雨日数,采用数据场、线性趋势法、Mann-Ken-dall非参数检验法及Morlet小波方法对其进行分析。结果表明,长三角地区可分为南区、中区、北区3个空间区域。47 a来各分区汛期暴雨量呈先减少再增加的趋势,整体上呈增加趋势,但均不显著,只有中区在1998—2003年间出现超过α=0.05显著性水平的变化特征。各分区均存在25 a左右的准周期震荡,且具有全域性;从20世纪80年代开始短时间尺度周期(小于20 a)有延长趋势,但不稳定。     

危险化学品运输事故历史数据研究综述

系统地回顾国内外近20 a来的危险化学品运输事故历史数据分析的理论和方法,旨在为我国今后危险化学品运输风险研究提供指导。调研国内外危险化学品运输事故研究的历史数据来源,介绍该领域的主要研究方法及其发展过程,讨论现有研究内容及研究结果的共性和特征。发现现有研究主要集中于危险化学品的道路运输,侧重于分析运输事故的主要影响因素,经济损失、次生灾害及事故数与运输批次的关联方面的研究不足。提出要把事故后果的科学衡量作为未来的研究方向。     

安全生产违章行为的人口因素影响模型研究——基于省级面板数据的协整方法

为了探讨人口因素对安全生产违章行为的影响,基于省级面板数据,构建安全生产违章行为数量与作业人员人口因素之间的固定效应变系数模型。实证研究,从业者的受教育程度、第二产业在岗职工平均工资以及人员数量规模等因素,影响违章行为方式及程度。结果表明:受教育程度的提高将显著抑制违章行为的发生;提高作业人员工资将增加违章行为的成本进而遏制违章行为的产生,但这一效果会受到作业人员所持有的风险态度的影响;作业人员规模的增加将提高工伤事故率。建议从提供受培训教育机会、提高违章成本、降低第二产业比重、减少高危行业作业人员数量等方面采取措施遏制违章行为。     

浅谈授权签字人对环境监测数据报告的审核

根据计量认证和中国实验室国家认可工作中对授权签字人能力的考核以及通过认证／认可的实验室对授权签字人赋予的职责和权利,针对目前环境管理、环境执法以及社会公众对环境监测数据不断增长的需要,结合监测数据报告审核的体会,探讨了授权签字人在环境监测数据报告审核中应采取的审核程序与方法及重点关注的问题。     

基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析

论文利用中国1961—2012年602个测站均一化的日降水资料,基于世界气象组织定义的11个极端降水指数,分析了近52 a中国极端降水事件的时空分布特征。结果表明：年极端降水指数长期变化趋势表明,大部分极端降水指数在我国西北和长江中下游地区（除CDD）以及东南沿海和华南大部分地区均呈现增加趋势,而在华北地区为减少趋势。极端降水指数随时间的变化表明,各指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,从2000年开始大部分指数表现为不同程度的增加趋势,即极端降水事件从2000年开始偏多。     

A generalized approach for producing,quantifying, and validating citizen science data from wildlife images

Citizen science has the potential to expand the scope and scale of research in ecology and conservation, but many professional researchers remain skeptical of data produced by nonexperts. We devised an approach for producing accurate, reliable data from untrained, nonexpert volunteers. On the citizen science website www.snapshotserengeti.org , more than 28,000 volunteers classified 1.51 million images taken in a large‐scale camera‐trap survey in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Each image was circulated to, on average, 27 volunteers, and their classifications were aggregated using a simple plurality algorithm. We validated the aggregated answers against a data set of 3829 images verified by experts and calculated 3 certainty metrics—level of agreement among classifications (evenness), fraction of classifications supporting the aggregated answer (fraction support), and fraction of classifiers who reported “nothing here” for an image that was ultimately classified as containing an animal (fraction blank)—to measure confidence that an aggregated answer was correct. Overall, aggregated volunteer answers agreed with the expert‐verified data on 98% of images, but accuracy differed by species commonness such that rare species had higher rates of false positives and false negatives. Easily calculated analysis of variance and post‐hoc Tukey tests indicated that the certainty metrics were significant indicators of whether each image was correctly classified or classifiable. Thus, the certainty metrics can be used to identify images for expert review. Bootstrapping analyses further indicated that 90% of images were correctly classified with just 5 volunteers per image. Species classifications based on the plurality vote of multiple citizen scientists can provide a reliable foundation for large‐scale monitoring of African wildlife.