Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes. 相似文献
With the present contribution an evaluation of the toxicity of the pure herbicide glyphosate and its commercial formulation Faena® is reported using the cladoceran Daphnia magna Strauss and the rotifer Lecane quadridentata Ehrenberg. LC50, EC50, NOEC, and LOEC values for each toxicant and for both test organisms are obtained. Regarding acute toxicity, Faena was 11-fold more toxic to L. quadridentata than pure glyphosate and slightly more toxic to D. magna (1.7-fold). Inhibition of esterase activity in L. quadridentata by glyphosate was the most sensitive end-point; the EC50 was 1500-fold smaller than the LC50. The implications of these results and their comparison with established international and national limit values for glyphosate are discussed. 相似文献
The results of a study of photocatalytic degradation of phenol using aqueous oxygenated TiO2 (anatase) suspensions in a batch Pyrex photoreactor are reported. The influence on the photodegradation rate of various parameters as pH, phenol and TiO2 content, oxygen partial pressure, anions present in the dispersions was investigated. A complete oxidation of phenol was observed. Intermediate compounds, catechol and quinone, were detected. It was observed that the photodegradation also proceeded with sunlight radiation. A mechanistic and kinetic model, which accounts for the results obtained, is given. Likely reasons for inactivity of the rutile modification for this reaction are also given. 相似文献
Identifying source information after river chemical spill occurrences is critical for emergency responses. However, the inverse uncertainty characteristics of this kind of pollution source inversion problem have not yet been clearly elucidated. To fill this gap, stochastic analysis approaches, including a regional sensitivity analysis method, identifiability plot and perturbation methods, were employed to conduct an empirical investigation on generic inverse uncertainty characteristics under a well-accepted uncertainty analysis framework. Case studies based on field tracer experiments and synthetic numerical tracer experiments revealed several new rules. For example, the release load can be most easily inverted, and the source location is responsible for the largest uncertainty among the source parameters. The diffusion and convection processes are more sensitive than the dilution and pollutant attenuation processes to the optimization of objective functions in terms of structural uncertainty. The differences among the different objective functions are smaller for instantaneous release than for continuous release cases. Small monitoring errors affect the inversion results only slightly, which can be ignored in practice. Interestingly, the estimated values of the release location and time negatively deviate from the real values, and the extent is positively correlated with the relative size of the mixing zone to the objective river reach. These new findings improve decision making in emergency responses to sudden water pollution and guide the monitoring network design.
The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count. 相似文献