An Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology for the calibration of water quality models

This paper proposes an Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology (IMCM) to solve the parameter estimation problem in water quality models. The methodology is based on Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and it operates by means of four modules: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Moving Feasible Ranges (MFR), Statistical Analysis of the Joint Posterior Distribution (SAD) and Uncertainty Propagation Analysis (UPA). The main innovation of the new proposal lies in the combination of MCMC and MFR modules which provides the joint posterior distribution of the calibrated parameters following the classical Bayesian approach. While MCMC module, based on Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm, is specially designed to sample complex joint posterior shapes within certain parameter ranges, the MFR readjusts these ranges until the coverage of the feasible parameter space is guaranteed. Once the joint posterior distribution is properly defined, the SAD provides the parameter statistics and the UPA performs an analysis of the uncertainty propagation through the model. The possibilities of the new proposal have been tested on the basis of a simple model featuring different activated sludge batch experiments. IMCM has been implemented in Matlab and it is prepared to be easily connected to any software package.     

分子筛孔结构对CO_2吸附性能的影响

采用巨正则蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CO_2在FAU分子筛上的吸附情况,比较了不同CO_2逸度下,CO_2在分子筛模型上的吸附位、吸附量的变化,拟合了其吸附等温线。结果表明:在吸附饱和状态下,分子筛的孔结构越大,对CO_2的吸附量越大,对于比CO_2分子更小的微孔结构,吸附几乎不发生;在低逸度下,CO_2的吸附主要发生在小孔内,随着逸度的提高,CO_2的吸附量迅速上升;在高逸度下,吸附量的提高主要发生在大孔内;FAU分子筛吸附CO_2的过程符合Ⅰ型Langmuir吸附等温线,在高压下对CO_2的吸附能力远大于低压下的吸附能力。     

Force-Velocity Characteristics of Individual Human Skeletal Muscles: TBCIat and TBCIong. Outline of the Method

The aim of the work is to outline a procedure of finding force-velocity (F–V) characteristics (F = f(V)) of individual skeletal muscles of the human locomotor system. The presentation is based on an example concerning extensors of the elbow joint: the lateral and long heads of triceps brachii (TBCIat and TBCIong). The experimental part of the procedure involves a natural movement of using the upper extremity to push an external object of variable, adjustable load, engaging both the elbow and shoulder joint.

Five men aged 23 took part in the experiment. Their task was to push the handle of a physical pendulum whose moment of inertia could be adjusted within the range of 58 kg m²-450 kg m², so as to give it maximum angular velocity. During each trial the movement of the trunk, of the upper extremity and of the pendulum was video recorded and the force applied with the hand to the handle of the pendulum was measured.

In order to find the F–V characteristics a simulation model SHOULDER was used, which is capable of solving the synergy problem for muscles of the arm and the shoulder girdle.

It was found that despite considerable dispersion of experimental points the respective regression lines revealed a clear tendency of decreasing muscle force for increased shortening velocity of the monoarticular head (TBCIat) and of increasing muscle force for increased lengthening velocity of the biarticular head (TBCIong) of the triceps brachii muscle.     

基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态智能评价方法

为了解决利用声发射在线检测技术对储罐底板腐蚀状态进行评价时,主要依赖检测人员经验的问题,使该项技术能更好地推广和应用,利用储罐底板在线检测的声发射信息和外观检查信息,并根据相关标准及专家经验,确定与储罐底板腐蚀状态相关的表征因素。采用遗传算法(GA)改进贝叶斯网络(BN)搜索方法,建立基于GA的BN智能评价方法。针对声发射在线检测信息和外观检查信息,分别建立基于标准用声发射因素、基于声发射因素和综合考虑声发射因素和外观检查因素的基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态评价模型。通过对测试样本的评价,对比声发射检测专家评价结果,其中基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态评价模型的准确率为96%,该模型能够对储罐底板腐蚀状态进行可靠的智能评价。     

Competing hypotheses analyses of the associations between group task conflict and group relationship conflict

Although previous research have reported strong and positive intercorrelations between group task conflict and group relationship conflict, several different theoretical rationales exist for the positive link and the empirical literature remains equivocal. To clarify the causal linkage between the two types of conflict, we derived seven models specifying how group task and relationship conflict can be related to each other, including some rival explanations. We tested the competing models using a longitudinal panel design, with data collected from 74 project teams comprising a total of 388 students. The results indicated that relationship conflict led to an increased subsequent task conflict through negative group affect. Task conflict, however, predicted a subsequent relationship conflict under a specific context, that is, groups that had lower levels of trust among the members. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国典型流域有机磷酸酯的污染特征与风险评估

有机磷酸酯（OPEs）作为溴代阻燃剂的替代品,在生产生活中被广泛使用,其环境污染和毒性效应受到广泛关注.梳理中国七大典型流域水体中OPEs的含量水平和分布特征,计算中国成人、青少年和儿童的OPEs日均饮水暴露量,对其健康风险进行评估,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法评价了结果的可靠性.检索整理了12种OPEs对水生生物的毒性效应浓度,构建物种敏感度分布（SSD）曲线,对生态风险进行评估.结果表明,低等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第5百分位浓度为52.61 ng·L^-1;中等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的中位浓度为499.74 ng·L^-1,磷酸三氯乙酯（TCEP）、磷酸三乙酯（TEP）和磷酸三（1,3-二氯-2-丙基）酯（TDCP）为主要污染物;高等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第95百分位浓度为1904.4 ng·L^-1,是其中等暴露水平的3.8倍,长江流域的ΣOPEs浓度最高.健康风险评估表明,不同人群通过饮用水暴露于OPEs的非致癌风险均在可接受范围内.磷酸三甲酯（TMP）、磷酸三异丁酯（TiBP）和TCEP是致癌风险的主要贡献者.生态风险评估结果表明,TCEP在高等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险;磷酸三正丁酯（TnBP）在中等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险,在高等暴露水平下,有较高生态风险;磷酸三苯酯（TPhP）在低中高3种暴露水平下的风险商均大于1,有较高生态风险,需要重点关注.     

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NO_x emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m³ for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m³ for the annual average of PM_2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NO_x emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m³, deep NO_x emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m³, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China.     

Effect of environmental parameters on the degradability of polymer films in laboratory-scale composting reactors

Previous research in our laboratory reported a convenient laboratory-scale composting test method to study the weight loss of polymer films in aerobic thermophilic (53°C) reactors maintained at a 60% moisture content. The laboratory-scale compost reactors contained the following synthetic compost mixture (percentage on dry-weight basis): tree leaves (45.0), shredded paper (16.5), food (6.7), meat (5.8), cow manure (17.5), sawdust (1.9), aluminum and steel shavings (2.4), glass beads (1.3), urea (1.9), and a compost seed (1.0) which is designated Mix-1 in this work. To simplify the laboratory-scale compost weight loss test method and better understand how compost mixture compositions and environmental parameters affect the rate of plastic degradation, a systematic variation of the synthetic mixture composition as well as the moisture content was carried out. Cellulose acetate (CA) with a degree of substitution (DS) value of 1.7 and cellophane films were chosen as test polymer substrates for this work. The extent of CA DS-1.7 and cellophane weight loss as a function of the exposure time remained unchanged when the metal and glass components of the mixture were excluded in Mix-2. Further study showed that large variations in the mixture composition such as the replacement of tree leaves, food, meat, and sawdust with steam-exploded wood and alfalfa (forming Mix-C) could be made with little or no change in the time dependence of CA DS-1.7 film weight loss. In contrast, substituting tree leaves, food, meat, cow manure, and sawdust with steam-exploded wood in combination with either Rabbit Choice (Mix-D) or starch and urea (Mix-E) resulted in a significant time increase (from 7 to 12 days) for the complete disappearance of CA DS-1.7 films. Interestingly, in this work no direct correlation was observed between the C/N ratio (which ranged from 13.9 to 61.4) and the CA DS-1.7 film weight loss. Decreasing moisture contents of the compost Mix-2 from 60 and 50 and 40% resulted in dramatic changes in polymer degradation such that CA DS-1.7 showed an increase in the time period for a complete disappearance of polymer films from 6 to 16 and 30 days, respectively.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Second National Meeting, August 19–21, 1993, Chicago, Illinois.     

汽车NVH测试评价方法

本文针对汽车NVH测试评价,分别从汽车NVH关注点、评价要求和条件做了介绍,并就汽车车内噪声、动力总成悬置隔振和支架共振频率、悬挂隔振特性等方面进行了较详细的实例评价.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.