Contribution of different sectors to developed countries’ fulfillment of GHG emission reduction targets under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

Greenhouse gas (GHG) data submitted in April 2014 on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, and waste for 37 developed countries was analyzed to estimate the relative contributions of different sectors to GHG emission reductions. This GHG data from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol included 35 parties to Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, the United States and Canada. Results show that the contribution of each sector was, in order: energy (36.9%), industrial processes (12.4%), agriculture (9.9%), LULUCF (7.7%), waste (3.4%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). The average proportion of base year emissions reduced in each sector by countries in Annex B was, in order: energy (7.4%), agriculture (2.7%), LULUCF (1.9%), industrial processes (1.2%), waste (0.5%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). Overall, the energy sector contributed the highest GHG emission reductions, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors also made contributions. Most countries achieved limited absolute GHG reductions from their chosen LULUCF activities, but the relative contribution of GHG emission reductions from LULUCF was significant but small. This suggests that, unless there are substantial changes to accounting rules, future emission reductions will mainly result from mitigation actions targeting fossil fuel consumption, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors will continue to play auxiliary roles.     

从拒绝《京都议定书》看美国政府环境外交意图

作为国际社会最具影响力的环境协约,《京都议定书》却被美国政府拒之门外,通过对美国近年来针对该协约的态度及对全球变暖问题的外交举措分析,可以看出,美国政府环境外交行为的意图主要体现在三个方面,即规避不利条款的束缚;设计和实施替代性方案;积极争取国际环境领域的领导地位。     

从海牙气候会议的失败看全球环境合作的障碍

文章在介绍海牙气候会议背景的基础上,分析了会议上产生的分歧,全球环境合作的障碍。同时,阐述了会议的尖锐矛盾和激烈斗争预示的中国今后在环境与发展问题上将面临的严峻挑战,并对此提出需要采取的有效对策。     

Use of Standardized Visual Assessments of Riparian and Stream Condition to Manage Riparian Bird Habitat in Eastern Oregon

The importance of riparian vegetation to support stream function and provide riparian bird habitat in semiarid landscapes suggests that standardized assessment tools that include vegetation criteria to evaluate stream health could also be used to assess habitat conditions for riparian-dependent birds. We first evaluated the ability of two visual assessments of woody vegetation in the riparian zone (corridor width and height) to describe variation in the obligate riparian bird ensemble along 19 streams in eastern Oregon. Overall species richness and the abundances of three species all correlated significantly with both, but width was more important than height. We then examined the utility of the riparian zone criteria in three standardized and commonly used rapid visual riparian assessment protocols—the USDI BLM Proper Functioning Condition (PFC) assessment, the USDA NRCS Stream Visual Assessment Protocol (SVAP), and the U.S. EPA Habitat Assessment Field Data Sheet (HAFDS)—to assess potential riparian bird habitat. Based on the degree of correlation of bird species richness with assessment ratings, we found that PFC does not assess obligate riparian bird habitat condition, SVAP provides a coarse estimate, and HAFDS provides the best assessment. We recommend quantitative measures of woody vegetation for all assessments and that all protocols incorporate woody vegetation height. Given that rapid assessments may be the only source of information for thousands of kilometers of streams in the western United States, incorporating simple vegetation measurements is a critical step in evaluating the status of riparian bird habitat and provides a tool for tracking changes in vegetation condition resulting from management decisions.     

Developing a National Indicator of Soil Quality on U.S Forestlands: Methods and Initial Results

The Montreal Process was formed in 1994 to develop an internationally agreed upon set of criteria and indicators for the conservation and sustainable management of temperate and boreal forests. In response to this initiative, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) programs of the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service have implemented soil measurements as part of a national monitoring program to address specific questions related to the conservation of soil and water resources. Integration of soil assessments into the national FIA program provides for systematic monitoring of soil properties across all forested regions of the U.S. using standardized collection, laboratory, and statistical procedures that are compatible with existing forest inventory data. The resulting information will provide quantitative benchmarks for regional, national, and international reporting on sustainable forest management and enhance our understanding of management effects on soil quality. This paper presents an overview of the FIA soil monitoring program, outlines the field and laboratory protocols as currently implemented, and provides examples of how these data may be used to assess indicators of sustainable management as defined by the Montreal Process.     

全球二氧化碳排放权交易市场的分析与展望

京都议定书提出了发达国家削减二氧化碳排放量的具体目标及削减方案。因此二氧化碳排放权交易成为关注的热点。在对排放权交易市场的特性．作用及利害关系分析的基础上．提出排放权交易市场将带动一批相关的服务业发展。英国，日本在国内建立交易市场的动作和进展．值得重视和借鉴。     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

Carbon values,reforestation, and `perverse' incentives under the Kyoto protocol: An empirical analysis

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unintended incentives to excessively harvest existing forests if regenerated forests qualify for carbon (C) credits under the reforestation provision of Article 3.3. This paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and C as priced outputs with data on timber and C growth and yield to different forest settings in the U.S. C prices of $50 per megagram (Mg) – the highest price evaluated– can considerably lengthen forest rotations (40 years or more), raise forest land values (as much as $1,900 per hectare), and sequester more C in the long run (up to 60 percent per acre), relative to the base case of no C compensation. However, if C payments are made for the regenerated stand only, in some situations, it is optimal to immediately harvest an otherwise premature stand at C prices as low as $20/Mg. The strength of perverse incentives to accelerate harvesting of existing forest varies by forest type, region, C price level, and institutional factors relevant to the compensation system. If C compensation were extended to existing stands, as may be possible under Article 3.4 of the KP, the perverse incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would not exist.