The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

Assumptions beyond the science: encouraging cautious conclusions about functional magnetic resonance imaging research on organizational behavior

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is likely to become the major tool for studying the neural underpinnings of organizational behavior. It is a technique for brain imaging that, according to advocates, provides information about which areas of the brain are activated during organizational processes (e.g., leadership and decision‐making). In this article, we take a critical look at this tool from a technical perspective. In particular, we take the reader through the assumptions that must be made at the three main steps of the research process (study design, data capture, and interpretation of results) in order to draw conclusions about organizational phenomena from fMRI research. Applying this analysis to three case studies demonstrates the gap between what fMRI can actually tell us and the claims often made about the contribution of fMRI to understanding and improving organizational behavior. Our discussion provides researchers with a series of recommendations oriented toward optimizing the use of fMRI to help it live up to its potential in the field of organizational behavior and consumers with a means of evaluating fMRI research in order to draw appropriate and warranted conclusions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宜兴市土地利用类型与水生态健康相关性研究

利用宜兴市2012年-2014年土地利用数据、水生态健康等相关数据,引用土地利用动态度和土地利用综合程度指数,对土地利用变化和水生态健康现状进行分析,运用相关性分析法测算土地利用类型比例与水生态健康主要指标的相关性.结果表明:耕地、建设用地比例与水生态健康综合指标负相关,湿地、草地、园地、林地用地比例与水生态健康综合指标正相关;建设用地比例与底栖动物负相关;湿地用地比例与营养、底栖动物指标正相关较强.     

煤矸石堆场Fe、Mn迁移累积效应研究

通过对贵州织金典型煤矿区矸石堆场周边地表水体及耕地进行调查与采样分析,探讨了煤矸石堆场Fe、Mn元素迁移对周边地表水体及耕地累积效应的影响。研究结果表明:受煤矸石堆场酸性排水的影响,煤矸石堆场周边溪沟水Fe、Mn含量分别达0.81~32.14mg/L、1.17~8.42mg/L,超过"集中式生活饮用水地表水源地标准"限值的3~107、12~84倍。堆场周边旱作土中Fe、Mn含量分别达63 530~85 990mg/kg、243.1~910.1mg/kg,水稻土达46 940~75 810mg/kg、144.5~409.1mg/kg,Fe、Mn累积指数旱作土分别达1.61、2.97,水稻土分别达1.24、1.33。随着与堆场距离的增大,水稻土Fe、Mn含量逐步降低,在500m范围内Fe降低了35%,Mn降低了61%,而旱作土变化规律不明显。     

土壤碳淋溶流失研究进展

土壤碳的淋溶流失是指在水的作用下土壤中的碳沿着水文路径转移到水环境的过程。尽管这些流失量有限,却对陆地碳平衡核算具有重要影响。本文在总结了土壤碳淋溶流失研究的重要性、近年来相关领域取得的进展的基础上,指出已有研究的不足有:对土壤无机碳(SIC)的淋溶流失研究薄弱、缺乏野外实地观测、对土地利用变化影响土壤碳淋溶流失的过程与机制认识不足等。今后除了加强以上几个方面的研究外,还要综合利用同位素示踪和在线仪器观测等各种手段,开展"陆地-水生系统连续体"内多界面碳交换的综合研究。     

紫色土区不同土地利用类型土壤紧实度特征

以重庆市沙坪坝区杨家沟小流域为例,选取6种土地利用类型样地进行试验,研究紫色土区不同土地利用类型的土壤紧实度特征,为土壤质量评价和土地资源管理提供参考。通过多重比较检验分析土壤紧实度随土壤深度的变化规律以及不同土地利用类型下的差异,结果表明:(1)6种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度值为竹林地园地灌木林地林地草地旱地;(2)6种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度均随土壤深度增加而增大,但各类之间变化差异较大;(3)同土层而言,0~10cm土层旱地与其它5种土地利用类型的土壤紧实度有显著性差异(p0.05),但各种土地利用类型间底层土壤紧实度差异不明显;不同土层而言,0~10cm土层与其它3个土层有显著性差异(p0.05),由于0~10cm土层受耕作、踩踏等外力扰动与其它土层差异较大。10~20cm土层与其它3个土层也有显著性差异(p0.05)。其它各土层之间差异不明显。不同土地利用类型的土壤紧实度差异较大,主要与人类活动扰动程度有关。     

小兴凯湖浮游植物功能群特征及其影响因子

为分析北方寒冷地区浑浊型富营养化湖泊湿地浮游植物功能群时空变化特征及其影响因子,分别于2014年春季(5月)、夏季(7月)和秋季(9月)对小兴凯湖12个采样点进行了浮游植物采样,系统分析了浮游植物功能群的组成特征. 结果表明:小兴凯湖浮游植物共划分为21个功能群,其中重要功能群为H1、MP、D、C、Y、X2、J和W1,春季以功能群X2和D占优势,分别占49.02%和24.32%;夏季以功能群X2、C和H1占优势,分别占28.86%、16.11%和14.16%;秋季以功能群X2和C占优势,分别占46.97%和27.66%. 浮游植物功能群随季节变化表现为X2+D→X2+C+H1→X2+C的特点,反映至水体环境,春季为低温、高营养、中度浑浊水体,夏季为高温、富营养、高度浑浊、低光照水体,秋季为低温、富营养、高度浑浊、低光照水体. Pearson线性相关性分析表明,重要功能群功能群H1同ρ(TP)极显著正相关;功能群D同透明度、ρ(BOD₅)极显著正相关,同ρ(COD_Cr)显著正相关,同浊度和ρ(TIC)显著负相关;功能群X2同透明度极显著正相关,同ρ(TP)显著正相关,同浊度极显著负相关. RDA多元统计分析表明,ρ(TP)、浊度、透明度是小兴凯湖浮游植物功能群的主要影响因子,ρ(TC)、ρ(TOC)同大多数小兴凯湖浮游植物功能群正相关,但不是主要影响因子,ρ(TIC)与小兴凯湖浮游植物功能群无相关性. 小兴凯湖虽然整体营养盐水平很高,但较高的浊度抑制了浮游植物的生长.