基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究

以新疆内陆艾比湖流域典型区域为研究区,基于RS和GIS技术分析1998、2013年土地利用变化,尝试用CA-Markov模型预测2028年土地利用/覆盖变化.借助Fragstats3.4软件,基于土地利用/覆盖变化构建景观生态风险评价模型,分析1998~2028年景观生态风险的时空分异特征.结果表明：（1）1998~2013年,研究区土地类型面积变化明显.耕地面积增加量最大,增加的面积为152139hm²,而未利用地面积减少量最大,减少的面积为67605hm².2013~2028年,耕地和裸露的河床及盐渍地的面积增加明显,增加的面积分别为30730hm²,12427hm²,而未利用地和水体的面积分别从954376hm²和44889hm²,减至921079hm²和37157hm².（2）1998~2028年,研究区生态风险等级空间分布差异明显.高生态风险区面积变化较为显著,其面积分别约占总面积的36.6%,7.3%,23.7%.1998~2028年,全局Moran's Ⅰ值分别为0.436962,0.442202,0.506622,表现为一定程度的正相关.（3）1998~2028年,耕地分布在低,较低生态风险的比重上升,所占百分比分别为58.46%,78.58%,79.9%.林、草地类型的各生态风险等级的所占的比重的波动较大.     

Monitoring of soil biochemical quality parameters under greenhouse spinach cultivation through animal waste recycling

Under the intensive agricultural system, direct application of animal slurries to soils can provide a sustainable disposal of these wastes by inducing positive changes in soil quality and fertility. However, how animal wastes quantitatively affect the key nutrients (C, N, P and S) transforming soil enzymes is not clearly known. A greenhouse spinach cultivation study demonstrated that pig slurry, either in raw (RS) or processed (aerobically aged) (PS) form, significantly (p?β-glucosidase (23–39%), urease (59–103%), nitrate reductase (73–103%) and dehydrogenase (27–72%)) and microbial growth in soil as compared to the unamended control. However, it did not significantly (p?>?.05) alter the aryl sulphatase enzyme activity. Slurry applications also significantly improved the macro (N, P and K) and micronutrients (Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe) uptake by spinach plant and hence the yield (2.9–3.38 times higher than control). Similarly, compared to chemical fertilisers the application of pig slurries improved soil biological and biochemical parameters as well as plant nutrients uptake. This study demonstrated the closing of global energy and nutrient cycles through land application of animal wastes without compromising the crop yield.     

Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science

Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes.     

Exploration of spatial morphometry and socioeconomic variables in modelling urban land use change

The incorporation of land use (LU) data with socioeconomic data is a main issue in modelling. This is as a result of difference in data model and scale. This study proposed and tested the change–pattern approach, which allows the incorporation of these data sets in modelling LU change. Focusing on LU dynamics for a selected part of the Thames Gateway within the City of London, the approach tested two different methods of input selection for the modelling operations. Variables selected from these two methods serve as inputs into several neural networks tested in order to identify the direction of change for each of the LU types within the study area. The result shows that direction of LU change across the study area could be identified when spatial morphology of the area and socioeconomic variables are considered. Some classes of change could be identified fairly accurately using landscape metrics indicating level of fragmentation, extent of LU patches, shape complexity of LU patches in combination with some socioeconomic variables.     

Characterization of the genes involved in nitrogen cycling in wastewater treatment plants using DNA microarray and most probable number-PCR

To improve nitrogen removal performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), it is essential to understand the behavior of nitrogen cycling communities, which comprise various microorganisms. This study characterized the quantity and diversity of nitrogen cycling genes in various processes of municipal WWTPs by employing two molecular-based methods:most probable number-polymerase chain reaction (MPN-PCR) and DNA microarray. MPN-PCR analysis revealed that gene quantities were not statistically different among processes, suggesting that conventional activated sludge processes (CAS) are similar to nitrogen removal processes in their ability to retain an adequate population of nitrogen cycling microorganisms. Furthermore, most processes in the WWTPs that were researched shared a pattern:the nirS and the bacterial amoA genes were more abundant than the nirK and archaeal amoA genes, respectively. DNA microarray analysis revealed that several kinds of nitrification and denitrification genes were detected in both CAS and anaerobic-oxic processes (AO), whereas limited genes were detected in nitrogen removal processes. Results of this study suggest that CAS maintains a diverse community of nitrogen cycling microorganisms; moreover, the microbial communities in nitrogen removal processes may be specific.

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吉林市城区土地利用对地下水污染空间分布的影响

利用吉林市城区91眼监测井2013年的地下水水质监测数据,采用改进内梅罗污染指数法求取地下水污染指数,同时考虑第二松花江两岸地下水污染的非连续性,采用Kriging方法进行分区插值,然后叠加融合得出城区地下水污染指数空间分布图.结合吉林市城区土地利用类型,采用CM模型和SLM模型提取监测井不同半径范围内的土地利用类型,利用多元回归分析方法确定监测井最可能受污染的范围,最后利用Kendall 秩次相关检验法和回归分析方法分析城区土地利用类型对地下水污染空间分布的影响.研究结果表明,吉林市城区地下水污染呈现出明显的空间分布特征;城区地下水受到不同程度的污染,其中江北片区和中心片区较为严重;在考虑地下水流动的情况下,监测井最可能受污染的范围为沿地下水流向方向500m;吉林市城区土地利用类型对地下水污染空间分布有较大影响,其中传统工业用地、居民和商业用地、城市交通设施用地为主要因素,其Kendall 秩次相关检验τ值分别为0.248、0.174、0.143;在各研究片区,该3种土地利用类型和地下水污染空间分布也存在较好的相关性.     

宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟

宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000-2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明：2000-2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km²,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km²,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km²,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论：大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。     

辽河东西支流与干流水体光学特性和组分对比研究

通过对东、西辽河和辽河干流有色溶解有机物(CDOM)吸收特性和荧光特征以及溶解有机碳(DOC)浓度的分析,对比研究不同子流域CDOM的光学特性差异,并分析影响CDOM与DOC浓度的主要因素.对比研究发现,辽河干流CDOM与DOC相关性(R = 0.89,P < 0.01)高于西辽河(R = 0.81)与东辽河(R = 0.75).总悬浮物浓度(TSM)和总碱度与不同子流域CDOM/DOC相关性较高.不同流域内CDOM与DOC的浓度变化较大,西辽河CDOM和DOC浓度明显高于东辽河和辽河干流.流域内土地利用、气候条件对两者浓度的影响显著,林地和CDOM及DOC浓度存在显著负相关(R = -0.41, -0.56),即林地面积越大,CDOM和DOC浓度越低;而农田与两者存在正相关(R = 0.40, 0.32),农田面积越大,相应的CDOM和DOC浓度越高;降雨量与CDOM和DOC呈现明显的负相关(R = -0.53, -0.38),说明降雨对河流CDOM的稀释作用较大.对于CDOM荧光强度Fn(355)与CDOM浓度来说,在每个子流域两者均存在较好的相关性,特别是西辽河流域(R = 0.96, P < 0.01).CDOM的三维荧光光谱发现,东、西辽河及辽河干流均表现出较强的类腐殖酸荧光峰(A峰和C峰),同时辽河干流表现出很强的类蛋白质峰(T峰).CDOM的吸收斜率(S)以及基于荧光光谱的FI和HIX表明东、西辽河和辽河干流CDOM的主要来源是外源高等植物输入的大分子量DOM,但是,西辽河和辽河干流CDOM的分子量要小于东辽河CDOM组成物质.     

基于TM影像的城市地表湿度对城市热岛效应的调控机理研究

论文以探究城市热岛效应调控机理为研究目的,以徐州地区1985-2010 年夏季四期Landsat TM影像为研究数据,应用单窗算法、K-T变换、空间叠加分析以及缓冲区分析等研究方法,对徐州市城市热岛时空变化特征进行了反演,重点对徐州市城市热岛强度的调控机理进行了分析并提出了通过K-T变换提取表示城市建成区内部植被与水体覆盖程度的城市地表湿度(ULSW)这一新指标.研究结果显示:城市地表湿度显著区对城市热岛效应起到了有效的调控作用,并且随着城市地表湿度值的提高,区域内部以及周围环境的温度都会随之下降.城市地表湿度指标对于城市热岛效应的调控水平具有一定的代表意义.     

土地资源空间异质性与经济发展水平的关系研究——以武汉城市圈为例

从土地资源属性出发,采用主成分分析法综合测度武汉城市圈土地资源空间异质性,利用Tobit 模型对土地资源空间异质性与经济发展水平的关系进行分析。研究表明:城市圈土地资源空间异质性是土地质量、结构、数量和禀赋等特征异质的综合反映,其中土地质量和结构异质是主因;城市圈土地资源空间异质性指数区间为[0.015, 0.737],可分为高异质区、中高异质区、一般异质区、中低异质区、低异质区5 个梯度区;城市圈土地资源空间异质性呈现出“中心高、边缘低”的分布特征,各异质梯度区内研究单元数量和面积差异明显;城市化水平和人均GDP对土地资源空间异质性具有显著的正向影响,第三产业比重具有显著的负向影响,提高第三产业比重能够降低城市圈土地资源异质性。