A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Conservation Threats Due to Human-Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas.     

基于CA-Markov模型土地利用对景观格局影响辨识

采用CA-Markov模型方法,研究挠力河流域不同时段土地利用对湿地景观格局干扰强度的差异性.结果表明:(1)流域湿地景观格局变化显著.1967-2000年,挠力河流域湿地类型景观最大斑块指数逐渐减小,耕地和水域斑块的面积周长分维数逐渐减小,而沼泽和居民地的散布与并列指数变大,草甸和耕地聚集度指数增大;湿地景观破碎化程度增加;湿地景观空间分布逐渐由流域周围高地势区向中心河流廊道退缩.(2)流域土地利用变化明显.耕地和居民用地数量迅速增加,耕地趋于集中连片分布,土地利用呈由自然湿地逐渐转化为耕地的变化过程,耕地成为主导的土地利用类型.(3)流域土地利用强度存在阶段差异.1967-2000年,流域内人类活动对湿地景观的干扰强度逐渐加剧,人为景观面积比例由1967年的26.5%上升至2000年的67.8%.土地利用影响强度指数由1967年的1.690上升至2000年的2.394.2000年模拟的流域土地利用影响强度比2000年实际土地利用影响强度小,由此可以识别1983-2000年人类对湿地景观的干扰强度比1967-1983年有所增大;利用居民地和沼泽面积的变化可以识别流域人口增长和排水活动对土地利用影响的时段差异性.     

保护性耕作对土壤线虫c-p类群及功能团的影响

以辽宁彰武县保护性耕作示范推广基地土壤为研究对象,通过实地调查和取样分析,对比研究了传统犁耕和6 a保护性耕作(免耕秸秆覆盖)条件下的土壤线虫c-p(colonizer-persister)类群及功能团,为评价保护性耕作的土壤生态效应提供理论依据.研究发现,与犁耕相比,保护性耕作显著增加了土壤线虫各c-p类群及绝大多数功能团的多度,但显著减少了Ba4和Om5功能团多度.此外,保护性耕作还改变了土壤线虫生活史和功能团的结构特征:在大部分研究土层,c-p1和c-p2线虫的相对多度显著提高,而c-p3、e-p4以及c-p3-5类群显著降低;Ba1、Ba2、Ba3、Fu4和H5功能团的相对多度显著提高,而Ba4、H3和Om5的相对多度显著降低,Fu2、H2和Om4相对多度的变化较复杂,在表土层表现为显著抑制,在15～30cm土层则为促进作用.土壤线虫c-p类群和功能团的多度及结构特征可能适合作为评价保护性耕作对土壤质量影响的生物学指标.     

刈割利用对封育沙地土壤水分的影响

在腾格里沙漠南缘长期封育沙地区,通过一个生长季的定位观测,分析研究全刈割和刈割一半两种利用强度对封育沙地土壤水分生态的影响,结果表明：在天然植被围栏封育区和人工种植+围栏封育区,全刈割、半刈割处理下的土壤含水量与对照间均存在显著差异。植被对土壤水分的消耗量随着刈割利用强度的增加而减小,封育沙地0～80cm各层的土壤含水量总体上具有随刈割利用强度的增加而增大的变化趋势;在3-7月份沙地土壤水分逐步降低的过程中,全刈割处理、半刈割处理与对照间土壤水分含量的差异较大,而在7-9月份沙地土壤水分逐步回升的过程中,不同利用处理间土壤水分含量的差异则显著减小;不同利用强度下封育沙地土壤水分随深度增加均表现为先增加后降低的变化趋势,在0～30cm土壤层,离地表越近,土壤含水量越低,而在30～70cm土壤层,则表现为随深度增加而快速下降的趋势。不同强度的刈割处理与对照间各深度层的土壤含水量差异大多都表现为：全刈割处理﹥半刈割处理﹥不刈割处理。表明刈割利用对封育沙地土壤水分生态具有一定的调节改善作用。     

基于粮食安全的耕地保护区域经济补偿标准测算

论文依据耕地保护的机会成本损失和基于区域粮食安全所折算的耕地赢余或赤字量,测算出耕地保护区域间的经济补偿标准,以矫正耕地保护的外部经济损失。在不同情景模式下的测算结果表明,粮食主产区为主要的补偿对象,黑龙江省所应补偿的金额最高,可获得543.24×10⁸元/年,而东部地区大多为耕地保护外部效益补偿金的主要支付者,上海市需要支付的补偿金最多,最低也应支付421.79×10⁸元/年。为了保障区域内粮食自给,一些地区维护粮食安全的成本会较高。在耕地保护过程中应该打破传统农业自给自足的封闭循环,遵循耕地保护机会成本的区域差异和区域土地利用的比较优势,统筹区域土地利用,使耕地保护成为实现农业区域专门化,取得规模经济效益和集聚效益的手段。     

土地经济密度的区域差异特征及动态演变格局——基于长江三角洲地区的实证分析

基于长江三角洲地区25个城市的土地经济密度数据,利用泰尔指数、空间自相关等方法对1995-2007年长江三角洲地区土地经济密度的区域差异特征及动态演化格局进行了初步探索。研究表明：①该区域的土地经济密度总体呈不断上升趋势,但是城市间差异明显,其高值点主要集中于沪苏锡常地区;②土地经济密度的总体差异和区间差异呈现波动性缩小趋势,江苏省内部差异和区间差异是总体差异的主要组成部分;③土地经济密度总体上趋于空间集聚,但局部的空间集聚中心从环杭州湾城市转移到苏南地区和上海。可见,高投入、低效率的土地利用方式已不适合长江三角洲地区的发展,未来必须统筹区域土地利用,合理配置土地资源,促进区域合理分工和协调发展。     

MWNTs/TiO2/聚酯功能复合膜吸附及其净化性能

以聚酯工业滤布为基膜,采用溶胶凝胶和浸渍方法制备了具有吸附-光催化功能的多壁碳纳米管(MWNTs)/TiO2涂层的复合膜,该复合膜对模拟水样低浓度(10mg/L)的双酚A具有较高吸附性能.随着复合膜上负载二氧化钛中的MWNTs的比例(17.6%,29.9%,和46.0%)增加,吸附去除率显著提高;吸附饱和的复合膜上的污染物双酚A可通过20W 紫外灯(l=254nm)照射Fenton氧化反应去除.吸附实验和HPLC分析表明,除了超声处理会引起浸渍负载的材料脱落外,复合膜吸附性能恢复较好.     

灾后重建土地利用规划环评重点内容解析与实证

在对四川汶川灾后重建土地利用规划环境影响评价区域与评价对象特征进行分析的基础上,对规划实施的主要资源环境制约因素进行了识别与分析,进而分析并确定了其评价要点;结合灾后重建土地规划环评实践工作,对评价重点内容与要点进行了初步应用。     

USING CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT: ARIZONA AND THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO1

ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.