The Impact-Likelihood Matrix: A policy tool for behaviour prioritisation

The proliferation of applied behaviour change science over the past decade has provided new ways of thinking about policy making. Policy makers now have a range of frameworks and methods to assist in formulating change for social and environmental benefits. However, the development of strategies for the identification and prioritisation of target behaviours has been less forthcoming. This paper outlines a tool to assist in behaviour selection. Behaviours are assessed for their potential impact on addressing a specific issue, the likelihood of adoption by the target audience and existing participation levels within the target audience. Each of these characteristics is scored, allowing behaviours to be mapped onto a meaningful, visual, matrix for prioritisation. Additional data on behaviour type and the key perceived barriers to participation in each behaviour are layered onto the matrix to provide direction for intervention design. An application of the prioritisation matrix is presented within an environmental context through a case study of water demand management behaviours for domestic consumers in Australia. The prioritisation matrix could provide a decision-making tool for policy makers to assist in the selection of target behaviours to address complex issues.     

Using many-objective trade-off analysis to help dams promote economic development,protect the poor and enhance ecological health

Allocating water to different uses implies trading off the benefits perceived by different sectors. This paper demonstrates how visualising the trade-offs implied by the best performing water management options helps balance water use benefits and find sustainable solutions. The approach consists of linking a water resources model that can simulate many management policies and track diverse measures of system performance, to a many-objective evolutionary optimisation algorithm. This generates the set of Pareto-optimal management alternatives for several simultaneous objectives. The relative performance of these efficient management alternatives is then visualised as trade-off curves or surfaces using visual analytic plots. Visually assessing trade-offs between benefits helps select policies that achieve a decision-maker-selected balance between different metrics of system performance. We apply this approach to a multi-reservoir water resource system in Brazil's semi-arid Jaguaribe basin where current water allocation procedures favour sectors with greater political power and technical knowledge. The case study identifies promising reservoir operating policies by exploring trade-offs between economic, ecological and livelihood benefits as well as traditional hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply. Results show optimised policies can increase allocations to downstream uses while increasing median land availability for the poorest farmers by 25%.     

冲压模CAE技术及软件选型方法

综述了国内外常用冲压模具CAE分析软件的内容和种类 ,从实用角度讨论了CAE系统应用中诸如规划、软件选型、人员培训、应用推广等问题 ,对其选型和实施方法作了重点介绍     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

Development of collision risk indicators for autonomous subsea inspection maintenance and repair

The objective of this article is to present a method for developing collision risk indicators applicable for autonomous remotely operated vehicles (AROVs), which are essential for promoting situation awareness in decisions support systems. Three suitable risk based collision indicators are suggested for AROVs namely, time to collision, mean time to collision and mean impact energy. The proposed indicators are classified into different thresholds; low, intermediate and high. An AROV flight path is simulated to gather input data to calculate the proposed indicators and three collision targets are established, i.e., subsea structure, seabed and a cooperating AROV. The proposed indicator development method together with the case study show a proof-of-concept that the combination of mean time to collision and mean impact energy indicators can identify risk prone waypoints in the AROV path. The method results in an overall risk picture for a given AROV path. The results may provide useful input in replanning of mission paths and for implementation of risk reducing measures. Even though the method focuses on collision risk, it can be used for other accident scenarios for AROVs.     

Major accident management in the process industry: An expert tool called CESMA for intelligent allocation of prevention investments

A tool (called CESMA) was developed to carry out cost–benefit analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of prevention investments for avoiding major accidents. A wide variety of parameters necessary to calculate both the costs of the considered preventive measures and the benefits related with the avoidance of accidents were identified in the research. The benefits are determined by estimating the difference in (hypothetical) major accident costs without and with the implementation of a preventive measure. As many relevant costs and benefits as possible were included into the tool, based on literature and expert opinion, in order to be able to deliver an all-embracing cost–benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to assist in the investment decision process. Because major accidents are related to extremely low frequencies, the tool takes the uncertainty of the unwanted occurrence of a major accident into account through the usage of a so-called ‘disproportion factor’. Compared with existing software, the CESMA tool is innovative by striving for an as-accurate-as-possible picture of costs and benefits of major accident prevention, and taking the uncertainties accompanying disastrous events into consideration. Furthermore, an illustrative example of CESMA is presented in the paper.     

Use of decision analysis interviews to support the sustainable use of the forests in Finnish Upper Lapland

Controversy between alternative uses of forests in Finnish Upper Lapland has been going on for decades, and in recent years it has been escalated to a serious conflict. The core of the conflict is the adverse impacts of forestry on old forests which are important grazing areas for reindeer and which are regarded as intact nature and wilderness areas. This paper describes the experiences of applying multi-criteria decision analysis interview approach on this conflict. The approach provides tools for structuring the problem and preferences of the stakeholders as well as for analyzing the effects of different alternatives in a common framework. We focus on the practical experiences gained from the application of this approach in this context. Multi-criteria decision analysis was found to be a useful approach to evaluate the economic, ecological and cultural aspects of this intense conflict. The obtained experiences also support the view that the approach works best when tightly integrated into the planning process.     

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process.     

Effective EU and Member State policies for stimulating CCS

Although CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognised as an option to mitigate climate change, consistent and effective EU policies to advance CCS are still absent. This paper discusses policy instruments for advancing large-scale deployment of CCS in the European Union, and evaluates them in a multi-criteria analysis. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is a cost-effective instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is questionable whether its currently limited time horizon and short-trading periods will lead to substantial CCS diffusion. Complementary policies at the EU and the Member State level may repair this and provide sufficient incentives for CCS. Potential policies include financial instruments such as investment subsidies, a feed-in scheme, or a CO₂ price guarantee, as well as a CCS mandate or a low-carbon portfolio. These policy options differ with respect to their environmental effectiveness, possible interaction with the EU-ETS, costs and financial risk involved, and their competition with other mitigation options. Interactions between Member State policies and the EU-ETS are smaller in scope than those of EU-wide policies, but they are more likely to lead to displacement of financial resources from other low-carbon technologies. In addition, national policies may pose a significant part of the financial risk of CCS operations with Member States, reducing the operator's incentive to innovate. Overall, structural policies at the EU level, such as a mandate or a low-carbon portfolio standard would be more conducive for realising large-scale deployment of CCS across the EU as well as more acceptable to environmental organisations.