成都未来气候变化趋势的R/S分析

运用R/S分析法,对1951～2002年成都的平均值气温、极端气温值及降水累积值进行了计算分析。研究表明,成都未来气候变化趋势与过去50年来的变化趋势有着很好的自相似性。今后成都将继续变暖。依平均气候倾向率,未来10年,年平均气温将升高0.25°C,年平均最低气温将升高0.14 °C,年平均最高气温将升高0.04 °C,年极端最低气温将升高0.54 °C,年极端最高气温将升高0.13 °C。其中,年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年平均最高气温升高趋势的持续性强度很强。成都未来降水量将继续减少。未来10年的年降水量将减少45.2 mm,并且这种减少趋势具有很强的持续性强度。     

Beehive fences as a multidimensional conflict‐mitigation tool for farmers coexisting with elephants

Increasing habitat fragmentation and human population growth in Africa has resulted in an escalation in human–elephant conflict between small‐scale farmers and free‐ranging African elephants (Loxodonta Africana). In 2012 Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) implemented the national 10‐year Conservation and Management Strategy for the Elephant in Kenya, which includes an action aimed at testing whether beehive fences can be used to mitigate human–elephant conflict. From 2012 to 2015, we field‐tested the efficacy of beehive fences to protect 10 0.4‐ha farms next to Tsavo East National Park from elephants. We hung a series of beehives every 10 m around the boundary of each farm plot. The hives were linked with strong wire. After an initial pilot test with 2 farms, the remaining 8 of 10 beehive fences also contained 2‐dimensional dummy hives between real beehives to help reduce the cost of the fence. Each trial plot had a neighboring control plot of the same size within the same farm. Of the 131 beehives deployed 88% were occupied at least once during the 3.5‐year trial. Two hundred and fifty‐three elephants, predominantly 20–45 years old entered the community farming area, typically during the crop‐ ripening season. Eighty percent of the elephants that approached the trial farms were kept out of the areas protected by the beehive fences, and elephants that broke a fence were in smaller than average groups. Beehive fences not only kept large groups of elephants from invading the farmland plots but the farmers also benefited socially and financially from the sale of 228 kg of elephant‐friendly honey. As news of the success of the trial spread, a further 12 farmers requested to join the project, bringing the number of beehive fence protected farms to 22 and beehives to 297. This demonstrates positive adoption of beehive fences as a community mitigation tool. Understanding the response of elephants to the beehive fences, the seasonality of crop raiding and fence breaking, and the willingness of the community to engage with the mitigation method will help contribute to future management strategies for this high human–elephant conflict hotspot and other similar areas in Kenya.     

Resilience-based approach to safety barrier performance assessment in process facilities

The performance assessment of safety barriers is essential to find vulnerable elements in a safety barrier system. Traditional performance assessment approaches mainly focus on using several static indicators for quantifying the performance of safety barriers. However, with the increasing complexity of the system, emerging hazards are highly uncertain, making it challenging for the static indicators to assess the performance of safety barriers. This paper proposes a resilience−based performance assessment method for safety barriers to overcome this problem. Safety barriers are classified according to their functions first. The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is then introduced to calculate the availability function under normal and disruption conditions. The ratio of the system's availability, when affected by the disruption, to the initial availability, is used to determine the absorption capacity of the system. The ratio of the quantity of availability recovery to the total quantity of system represents the adaptation and restoration capacity of the system. The system's resilience is represented by the sum of absorption, adaptation, and restoration capacities. The wax oil hydrogenation process is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.     

汤旺河国家公园不同演替阶段森林土壤细菌多样性变化规律

为了解红松湿生演替系列过程中土壤生境及土壤细菌多样性的变化规律,以小兴安岭汤旺河国家公园的白桦次生林、人工针阔混交林和原始云冷杉红松林为研究对象,分别代表湿生演替系列的演替先锋群落、演替中期群落和演替顶级群落,采用高通量测序的方法分析森林土壤细菌的多样性变化规律.结果表明:汤旺河国家公园从先锋演替到顶级演替阶段,森林土壤中w（OC）、w（TN）、w（AN）、w（AP）和w（AK）升高,而pH降低.此次分析土壤细菌包括16门27纲52目60科75属,其中Acidobacteria、Proteobacteria、Actinobacteria、Bacteroidetes为共有的优势菌门（相对丰度>1%）.演替先锋阶段（白桦次生林）Proteobacteria相对丰度最高,然而演替后期（云冷杉红松林）Acidobacteria相对丰度最高.通过冗余分析和相关性分析发现,不同演替阶段的森林土壤细菌多样性与土壤中w（OC）呈显著负相关,与土壤中w（TK）呈显著负相关,与土壤中w（AK）呈极显著负相关.研究显示,土壤细菌群落结构和多样性在不同湿生演替阶段有明显差异,主要可能受到土壤中w（OC）、w（TK）和w（AK）的影响.      

臭氧微气泡处理酸性大红3R废水特性研究

微气泡技术与臭氧废水处理相结合,有助于促进臭氧气液传质、改善臭氧氧化效果并提高臭氧利用率.本研究采用臭氧微气泡氧化处理酸性大红3R废水,考察了臭氧微气泡的气液传质特性以及对酸性大红3R氧化降解特性,并与臭氧传统气泡进行比较.结果表明,微气泡能够强化臭氧气液传质,相同条件下其臭氧传质系数为传统气泡的3.6倍;同时微气泡系统的臭氧分解系数为传统气泡系统的6.2倍,有利于·OH产生.臭氧微气泡可显著提高酸性大红3R氧化降解速率和矿化效率,其TOC去除率可达78.0%,约为传统气泡的2倍.臭氧微气泡处理酸性大红3R过程中的臭氧利用率显著高于传统气泡:微气泡系统平均臭氧利用率为97.8%;传统气泡系统平均臭氧利用率为69.3%.臭氧微气泡通过促进·OH产生提高臭氧氧化能力,其对降解中间产物的氧化速率更快,其中对小分子有机酸的矿化能力约为传统气泡的1.6倍.     

1960年-2014年天山北麓气温和降水变化趋势及预测研究

利用天山北麓17个气象站点1960年-2014年的气温和降水资料,采用Morlet小波分析、R/S分析等,研究了天山北麓气温和降水的时间变化.结果表明,(1)天山北麓年平均气温和年降水量分别以0.035℃/a和0.881 mm/a的倾向率呈上升趋势;季节变化明显;(2)年平均气温和年降水量有明显的周期性,年平均气温在55 a尺度内存在13 a的强显著周期,年降水量在55 a尺度内存在8 a的强显著周期.(3)未来一段时间内,天山北麓气温和降水均呈上升趋势,且与过去的变化趋势持续性较强.     

沉积物-水界面氮的源解析和硝化反硝化

掌握沉积物-水界面氮的循环过程,对有效控制地表水氮污染具有关键的作用.通过采集西湖不同季节的柱状芯样,利用氮、氧同位素技术及稳定同位素源解析模型(stable isotope analysis in R,SIAR)并结合乙炔抑制法研究沉积物-水界面氮的来源及迁移转化.结果表明,硝酸盐(NO_3~-)和氨氮(NH_4~+)在沉积物-水界面均存在浓度梯度,NO_3~-自底层水向间隙水扩散,是为沉积物累积;NH_4~+自间隙水向底层水扩散,是为沉积物释放.西湖底层水硝化作用明显,硝酸盐来源包括生活污水(粪肥)、土壤氮、化肥和降雨,生活污水(粪肥)是主要来源,其在夏季贡献率高达60.8%.间隙水中特别高的δ15N值反映西湖沉积物-水界面存在强烈的反硝化作用.西湖沉积物-水界面硝化速率和反硝化速率的平均值分别为2.85 mmol·(m~2·d)~(-1)和23.51μmol·(m~2·d)~(-1),沉积物-水界面在水体氮素去除过程中作用显著.硝化速率和反硝化速率时空变化显著.温度和溶解氧是影响西湖沉积物-水界面氮迁移转化的主要因素.     

戴云山国家级自然保护区大气氮沉降特点

利用干湿沉降采集器,持续观测戴云山国家级自然保护区内大气氮素干、湿沉降,调查当地大气氮沉降的种类和沉降通量.结果表明,2015-03-27~2015-10-09观测期间,戴云山自然保护区大气氮干、湿沉降量分别为2.30 kg·hm~(-2)和14.79kg·hm~(-2),以湿沉降形式为主(87%).干沉降中可溶性有机氮的沉降量为1.21 kg·hm~(-2),占干沉降通量的53%;无机氮以硝态氮为主(0.71 kg·hm~(-2)),铵态氮相对较低(0.37 kg·hm~(-2)).湿沉降中无机氮和可溶性有机氮沉降量分别为9.41 kg·hm~(-2)和5.38 kg·hm~(-2),其中无机氮以铵态氮为主(6.07 kg·hm~(-2)).大气氮湿沉降量和当地降雨量显著正相关,降雨量越大,对应的湿沉降氮量也越大.戴云山国家级自然保护区大气氮素沉降量较高,可能会对当地生态环境产生较大的影响.     

阜新地区土地荒漠化演变与生态建设

以RS和GIS作为信息获取与分析工具，通过对1978年、1989年研究区土地荒漠化遥感影像解译分析，对阜新地区21年来土地荒漠化的演变规律进行了系统的研究。结果表明，荒漠化的空间演变经历了“强化－逆转－强化”的过程，荒漠化则表现为“重度荒漠化逆转，轻度荒漠化扩展”的演为格局，不同类型的荒漠化（风蚀荒漠化、水蚀荒漠化、盐渍荒漠化）分别有不同的演变规律。在此基础上，对土地荒漠化进行了区位划分，提出了土地荒漠化区分区治理的模式，并从恢复生态学角度提出了区域生态恢复的政策和法律对策。