核与辐射事故防范与安全战略措施研究

针对核与辐射事故防范与安全战略措施研究问题,介绍了中国核与辐射安全现状,分析了核安全,是国家安全的重要组成部分,为最大限度降低公众辐射受照水平,保护公众的身体健康与生活环境,要确保核的应用与辐射安全,中国已将核与辐射安全纳入国家安全的公共安全体系,并进行战略规划研究。本文通过分析中国核与辐射安全现状及发展趋势,提出了核与辐射事故防范和救治的发展目标,相对应的提出有关核与辐射事故防范与救治安全战略措施及建议。     

高层建筑火灾初期人员疏散策略的优化分析

通过分析高层建筑火灾条件下的人员安全疏散问题,构建了高层建筑火灾初期的垂直疏散模型,并提出2种疏散策略.策略Ⅰ:电梯停靠层以下全部用楼梯疏散,停靠层及以上楼层用电梯疏散;策略Ⅱ:各楼层人员按不同比例通过电梯进行疏散.然后通过调用随机函数,在一个动态运行模式下求解模型,分析停靠层、楼层人数及电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响,得到2种策略条件下的近似最优解.分析楼梯、电梯的疏散规律,得出楼层人数、电梯停靠层和电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响并非单一的线性关系:楼层人数较少时,随楼层的增加,电梯疏散更具优势;楼层人数过多时,电梯、楼梯的疏散效果都不明显,此时需要合理确定通过楼梯、电梯疏散的人数比例才能提高疏散效果.比较2种策略发现,策略Ⅱ疏散时间更短,而策略Ⅰ在现实中的运行能力和可操作性更强.     

《水污染防治行动计划》实施的宏观经济影响分析

基于全产业链视角,本文采用投入产出模型定量模拟了《水污染防治行动计划》(以下简称《水十条》)项目实施的社会经济影响.结果表明,《水十条》的实施:①起到了刺激经济发展、促进社会就业的作用,将拉动我国GDP 累计增加56 964 亿元,其中直接贡献占13%,间接贡献占87%;累计增加非农就业岗位398 万人,其中直接贡献占29%,间接贡献占71%.②将拉动环保装备制造、建筑安装、环保技术服务等相关行业的发展,同时通过产业链关联间接带动农林牧渔业、交通运输及仓储业、批发和零售业、专用设备制造业等行业的发展.③在我国环境保护投资仍然严重不足的情况下,加大环保投资有利于带动节能环保产业的发展,促进我国经济战略转型.     

关于乡镇工业可持续发展的环境保护对策

从可持续发展的角度，对乡镇工业环境污染状况与原因进行了分析，提出了乡镇工业可持续发展对策。     

Influence of Political Opposition and Compromise on Conservation Outcomes in the Tongass National Forest,Alaska

Abstract: To understand how a highly contentious policy process influenced a major conservation effort, I examined the origins, compromises, and outcomes of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980 (ANILCA) for the Tongass National Forest. Tongass wilderness designation was among the most controversial issues in the ANILCA debate, and it faced strong opposition from influential lawmakers, land managers, and Alaska residents. To investigate the influence of this opposition on Tongass conservation outcomes, I conducted a gap analysis of Tongass reserves and a policy analysis of the ANILCA debate and traced the influence of specific interests through the amendments, negotiations, and resulting compromises needed to enact ANILCA. Overall, I found that Tongass reserves comprise a broadly representative cross‐section of ecosystems and species habitats in southeastern Alaska. Redrawn reserve boundaries, industry subsidies, and special access regulations reflected compromises to minimize the impact of wilderness conservation on mining, timber, and local stakeholder interests, respectively. Fragmentation of the Admiralty Island National Monument—the most ecologically valuable and politically controversial reserve—resulted from compromises with Alaskan Native (indigenous peoples of Alaska) corporations and timber interests. Despite language to accommodate “reasonable access” to wilderness reserves, ongoing access limitations highlight the concerns of Alaska residents that opposed ANILCA several decades ago. More broadly, the Tongass case suggests that early and ambitious conservation action may offset strong political opposition; compromises needed to establish key reserves often exacerbate development impacts in unprotected areas; and efforts to minimize social conflicts are needed to safeguard the long‐term viability of conservation measures.     

Use of Modified Threat Reduction Assessments to Estimate Success of Conservation Measures within and Adjacent to Kruger National Park,South Africa

Abstract: The importance of biodiversity as natural capital for economic development and sustaining human welfare is well documented. Nevertheless, resource degradation rates and persistent deterioration of human welfare in developing countries is increasingly worrisome. Developing effective monitoring and evaluation schemes and measuring biodiversity loss continue to pose unique challenges, particularly when there is a paucity of historical data. Threat reduction assessment (TRA) has been proposed as a method to measure conservation success and as a proxy measurement of conservation impact, monitoring threats to resources rather than changes to biological parameters themselves. This tool is considered a quick, practical alternative to more cost‐ and time‐intensive approaches, but has inherent weaknesses. I conducted TRAs to evaluate the effectiveness of Kruger National Park (KNP) and Limpopo Province, South Africa, in mitigating threats to biodiversity from 1994 to 2004 in 4 geographical areas. I calculated TRA index values in these TRAs by using the original scoring developed by Margoluis and Salafsky (2001) and a modified scoring system that assigned negative mitigation values to incorporate new or worsening threats. Threats were standardized to allow comparisons across the sites. Modified TRA index values were significantly lower than values derived from the original scoring exercise. Five of the 11 standardized threats were present in all 4 assessment areas, 2 were restricted to KNP, 2 to Limpopo Province, and 2 only to Malamulele municipality. These results indicate, first, the need to integrate negative mitigation values into TRA scoring. By including negative values, investigators will be afforded a more accurate picture of biodiversity threats and of temporal and spatial trends across sites. Where the original TRA scoring was used to measure conservation success, reevaluation of these cases with the modified scoring is recommended. Second, practitioners must carefully consider the need and consequences of generalizing threats into generic categories for comparative assessments. Finally, continued refinement of the methodology and its extension to facilitate the transfer of successful conservation strategies is needed.     

论国家发展战略的选择--转移、转嫁与转变

从全人类和长暑期的角度来看，可持续发展是人类社会发展的必然，但在短时期内，特别是在特定的的国家和地区范围内，却不一定是必然的。这种必然性的实现领带于各国政府对国家发展战略的选择。本文在分析先期工业化国家发展路径的基础上，提出了国家发展路径的几种可能情形．论述了发展路径依赖于政府负责任的赖选择关系，并初步分析了可能的选择空间。最后．论文指出中国的科学发展观是超越了转移、转嫁的发展模式的转变．是对人类社会负责任的符合可持续发展要求的战略选择。     

Population Biology of Cichorium intybus L. (Asteraceae) of the Middle Don River Basin

The stages of ontogeny and morphogenesis of the common chicory were characterized on the basis of long-term observations. A comparative analysis of seed productivity was performed, and the pool of viable seeds in the soil was determined. The ecological–cenotic relationships and the types of population strategy of the species were estimated.     

《淮河流域可持续发展战略研究》撷要

《淮河流域可持续发展战略研究》采取系统科学的方法，提出了较为完整的淮河流可持续发展战略体系，既是中国水利事业步入“大水利”举措的尝试，也弥补了从整体上研究中国大河流域可持续发展战略的不足，对于其他大河流域的可持续发展战略研究具有借鉴意义。     

努力建设富裕文明开放和谐云南必须完成“十一五”环保“刚性”指标

分析了面临的历史性检验，深刻理解了云南省委提出的建设理念，认为应从战略和全局高度创新环保新形象，建设富裕文明开放和谐云南，必须完成“十一五”环保“刚性”指标。