太湖流域不同管理模式的社会经济环境系统演化模拟

基于复杂自适应系统理论构建了社会经济环境系统模型,采用计算实验方法模拟分析了太湖流域在经济优先和水环境保护优先2种管理模式下的动态演化过程,得到了农业与工业经济发展水平、就业状况和水环境改善情况的演化规律.结果表明,在综合考虑社会、经济、水环境的基础上,2种管理模式均能在一定程度上实现经济和就业的增长,同时改善水环境.环境保护优先模式虽能有效保护水环境,却会牺牲部分经济发展和就业保证.不同地区在演化过程中表现出差异性,常州和湖州经济获得较快增长;苏州、上海在就业方面做出较大贡献;无锡和苏州水环境改善效果最为明显.     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.     

重大危险源计算机监控与预警系统

探讨了重大危险源计算机监控与预警系统的组成结构和各部分实现的功能，介绍了 两例监控与预警系统，并就监控与预警系统的网络设计进行了论述。     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

Governing sustainability: a dialogue between Local Agenda 21 and transition management

Since the 1990s, the local level of governance has become increasingly important in addressing the challenge of sustainable development. In this article, we compare two approaches that seek to address sustainability locally, namely Local Agenda 21 and transition management. Discussing both approaches along six dimensions (history, aim, kind of change, governance understanding, process methodologies, and actors), we formulate general insights into the governance of sustainability in cities, towns, and neighbourhoods. This dialogue illustrates two related modes of thinking about sustainability governance. We touch upon the importance of an integrated perspective on sustainability transitions through which sustainability is made meaningful locally in collaborative processes. We suggest that the explicit orientation towards radical change is a precondition for governing sustainability in a way that addresses the root causes of societal challenges. Governing sustainability should address the tensions between aiming for radical change and working with status quo-oriented actors and governing settings. We conclude that governing sustainability should be about finding creative ways for opening spaces for participation, change, and experimentation, that is, for creating alternative ideas, practices, and social relations. These spaces for innovation encourage a reflexive stance on ways of working and one's own roles and attitudes, thereby preparing a fertile terrain for actors to engage in change from different perspectives.     

Who shapes local climate policy? Unpicking governance arrangements in English and German cities

A new framework for analysing subnational policymaking is applied to climate governance in the ‘twin towns’ of Newcastle upon Tyne and Gelsenkirchen. Low levels of resource interdependence between central and local government in England mean that Newcastle Council has to rely heavily on other horizontal actors to achieve its climate objectives. In contrast, Gelsenkirchen Council receives substantial support from higher tiers of government, which gives it greater control over policymaking within the locality. Greater independence between tiers of government can make it more difficult for subnational bodies to adopt the kind of ambitious policies that may be necessary to combat wicked and/or significant policy challenges such as climate change. Instead, interdependent ‘joint-decision’ systems, which facilitate mutual support across tiers of government, may be better equipped to ensure that subnational public bodies have the capacity to act appropriately.     

A responsibility–accountability framework for private sector use of a World Heritage Area

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is a natural asset of global significance, spanning 2600?km’s along the Australian coastline. On the southern tip of the GBR is the Gladstone region, where high levels of industrial activity have been juxtaposed with the natural wonder, and World Heritage Listed, GBR. Given these competing local priorities, this research explores local perceptions of the GBR and its management. Exploratory analysis of 38 interviews with residents and stakeholders from Gladstone revealed a potential incongruence between environmental concern and support for more stringent management of the tourism and resources sectors on the GBR. A responsibility–accountability framework (RAF) for managing the use and protection of the GBR is developed by drawing on current theoretical frameworks and the results of the interviews. Importantly the framework highlights the importance of business responsibility combined with monitoring and control mechanisms to ensure accountability and to deliver transparency, education and partnership. Future research should apply the RAF for testing and application in other marine World Heritage Area contexts.     

山水林田湖草生命共同体的科学认知、路径及制度体系保障

山水林田湖草生命共同体是对人与自然和谐统一关系的新认知,是生态文明理论的重要组成部分。以建立一个山水林田湖草生命共同体的研究范式为目的,系统剖析了山水林田湖草生命共同体理论与应用在基础探索、快速发展和多元繁荣三个阶段的研究重点与特征;再次审视了山水林田湖草生命共同体的内涵、阐明了概念新认知、基本特征、人与生命共同体关系;最后提出面向山水林田湖草生命共同体的“问题—目标—时空策略—目的”的实施路径,及构建以自然资源监测监管体系、自然资源资产产权体系、国土空间规划体系、国土空间用途管制体系、国土空间生态修复体系、法律法规体系等为主的制度体系,进而提升其科学性和实用性,为构建国土空间治理体系及治理能力现代化提供决策支撑。     

基于HCNAM-BN的化工过程爆炸事故致因链分析

为了从源头上预防化工过程爆炸事故,依据风险耦合理论,探讨了各风险因子非线性耦合演化为爆炸事故的机理,构建了层次耦合网络分析模型（HCNAM）;从多因素风险耦合角度分析了国内外44起典型化工过程爆炸事故,统计了各风险因子之间的耦合概率并进行了耦合致因重要度分级;采用耦合概率与二态分布相结合的条件概率分布,将层次耦合网络分析模型转化为贝叶斯网络,并对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸性混合气体爆炸事故进行了应用研究。结果表明:91种双因子耦合风险状态中,47种呈现弱耦合致因特性;7种因子双耦合形成风险的概率较大;基于HCNAM-BN模型分析事故,可有效辨识事故最可能致因因素,获取各事故致因链的发生概率并确定事故网络关键节点。