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161.
Ton H. Snelder Doug J. Booker John M. Quinn Cathy Kilroy 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2014,50(1):111-127
Regression models of mean and mean annual maximum (MAM) cover were derived for two categories of periphyton cover (filaments and mats) using 22 years of monthly monitoring data from 78 river sites across New Zealand. Explanatory variables were derived from observations of water quality variables, hydrology, shade, bed sediment grain size, temperature, and solar radiation. The root mean square errors of these models were large (75‐95% of the mean of the estimated values). The at‐site frequency distributions of periphyton cover were approximated by the exponential distribution, which has the mean cover as its single parameter. Independent predictions of cover distributions at all sites were calculated using the mean predicted by the regression model and the theoretical exponential distribution. The probability that cover exceeds specified thresholds and estimates of MAM cover, based on the predicted distributions, had large uncertainties (~80‐100%) at the site scale. However, predictions aggregated by classes of an environmental classification accurately predicted the proportion of sites for which cover exceeded nominated criteria in the classes. The models are useful for assessing broad‐scale patterns in periphyton cover and for estimating changes in cover with changes in nutrients, hydrological regime, and light. 相似文献
162.
We study the introduction of new technologies when their costs are subject to idiosyncratic uncertainty and can only be fully learned through individual experience. We set up a dynamic model of clean experience goods that replace old polluting consumption options and show how optimal regulation evolves over time. In our base setting where social and private learning incentives coincide, the optimal tax on the polluting consumption is increasing over time. We show, however, that if social and private learning incentives diverge because the private discount rate exceeds the social discount rate, it may be optimal to temporarily increase the tax rate beyond net marginal external damages to induce more learning before reducing the tax rate to the steady state level. Alternatively, one could complement the tax with subsidies for first-time users which can be phased out over time. Similar results apply if consumers have biased expectations. We therefore give a rationale for introductory subsidies on new, clean technologies and non-monotonic tax paths from a perspective of consumer learning. 相似文献
163.
164.
Mark Kammerbauer 《Disasters》2013,37(3):401-419
This paper examines a city and a natural disaster, specifically New Orleans, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. Recovery here is ongoing and the process of return is incomplete, with long‐term dislocation to other cities in the United States, such as Houston, Texas. The question arises as to how planning and stratification influence evacuation and return/dislocation and how they result in a particular practice of adaptation. This interrelated process is conceptually integrated and termed ‘schismo‐urbanism’ and is analysed within a multidimensional theoretical framework to evaluate aspects of urban sociology and natural disasters. Empirical research is based on a quantitative and qualitative mixed‐method case study. Data were collected during two rounds of field research in New Orleans and Houston in 2007 and 2009. As a comparative socio‐spatial study of affected and receptor communities, it makes a novel theoretical and methodological contribution to research on urban disasters in the context of continuing and rapid social change, and is targeted at disaster researchers, planning theorists and practitioners, and urbanists. 相似文献
165.
Very little research has examined the safety expectations of new recruits, particularly those of individuals about to enter full-time work for the first time. There is evidence that new recruits have proportionally more accidents in the first period of their employment. One possible explanation for this is that the safety expectations of new recruits do not match the reality of the workplace they are about to enter. In Study 1 data on workplace safety expectations were collected from 142 final year high school students from six schools. Study 2 collected data from 40 organizations on the safety expectations of a new recruit and compared it with safety expectation data from a manager of the job they were entering. Both studies found that new recruit safety expectations were significantly correlated with ratings of safety specific trust in co-workers and management. Study 2 found that new recruits safety expectation scores were significantly higher than those given by managers. The results suggest that organizations need to develop a clear safety-specific psychological contract with new recruits. 相似文献
166.
运用完全分解模型详细研究了2000-2007年间滨海新区能源消费总量变化的过程。结果表明,2000-2007年期间,经济规模扩张因素所产生的增长效应对滨海新区能源消费总量的持续增长起主导作用。与此同时,产业结构的变动对能源消费的减量作用为负面的,技术进步因素产生的能源强度效应则是推动滨海新区能源消费减量的主要因素。笔者认为,推动产业结构的跨越式演进以及在未来城市规划中增加能源消费总量约束性的发展指标是滨海新区实现能源消费总量降低的重要途径和手段。 相似文献
167.
Jiuhui Qu Hongchen Wang Kaijun Wang Gang Yu Bing Ke Han-Qing Yu Hongqiang Ren Xingcan Zheng Ji Li Wen-Wei Li Song Gao Hui Gong 《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2019,13(6):88
168.
为了解天津滨海新区大气污染物浓度水平和污染来源,2009年9月1日~2010年2月28日对NOx、CO、SO2、O3、PM2.5、PM10进行了连续在线观测,并同步观测了气象要素.结果表明,秋冬季上述污染物最高日均值(秋冬平均值±标准差,O3为日小时均值最大值)分别达到300.7(65.4±52.9)×10-9、7.278(1.324±1.169)×10-6、53(13±12)×10-9、95(28±21)×10-9(体积分数)和287.4(62.3±53.6)μg/m3、1421.4(161.9±136) μg/m3. NOx和SO2秋季低于冬季,O3和PM10反之. CO和PM10相对国家二级标准超标率为2%和38%,PM2.5相对WHO标准(75μg/m3)超标率为31%.季节统计日变化显示CO和NOx为早晚双峰型,SO2为中午的单峰型,O3为午后单峰型,且秋季日变化振幅远大于冬季, PM10为早晚双峰型,但冬季比秋季晚出峰2~3h.除冬季PM10,大气污染物浓度49%~74%的逐日变化由气象要素影响.滨海新区大气污染受局地排放和外源输送共同影响,西南方向气流易造成污染物积累,其次是东北方向,而东和东南气流最有利于污染物扩散;各污染物具体表现为NOx主要受局地源控制;SO2主要受外来输送影响;CO和PM2.5同时受本地源和外来源的共同影响;PM10秋季表现为本地源污染,而冬季为本地源和外来源的共同影响. 相似文献
169.
基于DPSIR模型的天津滨海新区环境风险变化趋势分析 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
考虑区域环境污染事件的形成机制,根据驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型框架,提出系统度量区域环境风险变化趋势的指标体系和评价模型,并对天津滨海新区工业化进程中突发性环境污染事件引发的环境风险变化趋势进行了评估. 结果表明:天津滨海新区2007,2015及2020年环境风险分别为0.487,0.508和0.367,分别处于警戒状态、较差状态和警戒状态,说明滨海新区环境风险形势比较严峻,需要进一步采取更有效的响应对策. 相似文献
170.