Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

复杂建筑结构人员疏散的元胞自动机模拟研究

为研究复杂建筑结构下人员疏散特征,依据元胞自动机理论建立了多障碍物多出口条件下的疏散模型。该模型结合"静态场+动态场"理论能反映真实场景中的人员疏散过程。利用该模型分别对教室内不同人员密度和不同人员初始分布的疏散过程进行模拟,并重点分析走廊宽度、出口宽度和出口间距对人员疏散效率的影响。研究结果表明:人员疏散时间随着人员密度的增加而增加;并且合理的人员分布可提高出口的利用率及疏散效率。此外,人员疏散时间随走廊宽度的增加呈指数衰减趋势,房间的出口间距较出口宽度对疏散时间的影响更为显著。     

单室人员疏散模型及仿真分析

为实现对单室人员疏散时间的精确计算,通过对单室人员疏散过程的分析,揭示单室疏散时人员运动的规律,建立了有、无障碍条件下单室人员疏散的计算模型,得到疏散门处发生拥堵的临界条件,并将计算模型的计算数据与相同条件下社会力疏散模型的仿真数据进行比较,以评价计算模型的准确性。结果表明,计算模型计算简单,数据可靠,能够用于计算单室人员疏散的时间。     

大型体育馆消防性能化设计中安全疏散时间的分析和研究

《体育建筑设计规范》对体育馆安全疏散时间有明确的要求,对于二级耐火等级的体育馆控制疏散时间定为3min～4min。以此作为某大型体育馆消防性能化设计中安全疏散时间依据,运用人员疏散模拟软件分别对体育馆安全疏散时间进行的分析和比较,探讨了具体案例中如何确定和评估消防性能化设计的安全水平,即消防性能化设计安全水平不应低于处方式安全水平的设计理念。研究结果表明,现行设计宽度可满足疏散要求,充分保证人员的安全疏散。     

上海市污水治理二期工程上升管间距模型试验研究

以上海市污水治理二期工程物理模型试验数据为基础，通过量纲分析的方法得出了污水排放口上升布置多个喷口时污水场宽度与各影响因素之间的关系式，根据污水场宽度可以确定出上升管理论间距，为实际工程中扩散器长度的确定提供理论依据。     

Individual specialization in the hunting wasp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Trypoxylon</Emphasis> (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Trypargilum</Emphasis>) <Emphasis Type="Italic">albonigrum</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera,Crabronidae)

Individual-level variation in resource use occurs in a broad array of vertebrate and invertebrate taxa and may have important ecological and evolutionary implications. In this study, we measured the degree of individual-level variation in prey preference of the hunting wasp Trypoxylon albonigrum, which inhabits the Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. This wasp captures several orb-weaving spider genera to provision nests. Individuals consistently specialized on a narrow subset of the prey taxa consumed by the population, indicating the existence of significant individual-level variation in prey preferences. The population niche was broader in the wet season in terms of both prey size and taxa. In the case of prey size, the population niche expansion was achieved via increased individual niche breadths, whereas in the case of prey taxa, individual niches remained relatively constrained, and the population niche expanded via increased interindividual variation. The observed pattern suggests the possibility of functional trade-offs associated with the taxon of the consumed prey. The nature of the trade-offs remains unknown, but they are likely related to learning in searching and/or handling prey. We hypothesize that by specializing on specific prey taxa, individuals increase foraging efficiency, reducing foraging time and ultimately increasing reproductive success.     

Effects of male removal on female foraging behavior in the Eurasian treecreeper

In old, spruce-dominated forests of central Finland, Eurasian treecreepers Certhia familiaris divide their territories spatially during the breeding season. Females forage primarily on the upper parts of the tree trunks, while males use the lower parts of the tree trunks. In this study we removed males from eight territories in the early nestling period to see if the mate's absence would change the foraging patterns of the resident female. Widowed females foraged at lower heights, thus behaving more like paired males. These females also spent less time on each tree and on each foraging bout than did paired females. We conclude that male removal facilitated the change in a female's foraging niche and foraging time at the trees. Females may re-optimize their foraging site selection owing to the absence of dominant males and a consequent need to increase their parental care. Behavioral plasticity may be the mechanism of niche partitioning between the sexes in this species. Received: 28 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 27 March 1997     

LONG-TERM CHANGES IN LOW-FLOW CHANNEL WIDTHS WITHIN THE SOUTH UMPQUA WATERSHED,OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Recent stream survey data (1989–1993) from 31 stream segments of 21 streams within the upper South Umpqua Watershed Oregon were compared to 1937 stream survey data collected from these same stream segments. Current low-flow wetted stream widths of 22 of the 31 surveyed stream segments were significantly different than in 1937; 19 stream segments were significantly wider while the remaining three stream segments were significantly narrower. In only 1 of 8 tributaries to the South Umpqua River which had headwaters within land designated wilderness area did low-flow stream channel width increase since 1937. Conversely, 13 of the 14 tributaries to the South Umpqua River which originated from lands designated as timber emphasis were significantly wider than in 1937. The observed change in stream width was linearly related to timber harvest (r²= 0.44), road density (r²= 0.45), and the amount of large organic debris remaining within the active stream channel (r²= 0.43). These findings suggest that timber harvest and road construction may have resulted in changes in channel characteristics. These channel changes may also be a factor in the observed decline of three of the four populations of anadromous salmonids within the basin.     

CHANNEL STABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM A DAM ASSESSED USING AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS AND STREAM‐GAGE INFORMATION1

ABSTRACT: The stability of the Neosho River channel downstream from John Redmond Dam, in southeast Kansas, was investigated using multiple‐date aerial photographs and stream‐gage information. Bankfull channel width was used as the primary indicator variable to assess pre‐ and post‐dam channel change. Five sin‐mile river reaches and four stream gages were used in the analysis. Results indicated that, aside from some localized channel widening, the overall channel change has been minor with little post‐dam change in bankfull channel width. The lack of a pronounced post‐dam channel change may be attributed to a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the post‐dam annual peak discharges in combination with the resistance to erosion of the bed and bank materials. Also, the channel may have been overwidened by a series of large floods that predated construction of the dam, including one with an estimated 500‐year recurrence interval.     

一种用于尾矿库干滩长度在线监测的新方法

通过分析当前常用干滩长度在线监测方法所适应的条件及其存在的问题,提出了一种可用于干滩长度在线监测的新方法——渗流反推法,其基本原理是通过在干滩面上依次布置一定数量的渗压计,以获取实时的浸润线,然后通过建立浸润线的库长-坝高坐标系,再结合库水位,通过解算浸润线与库水位方程组,计算出尾矿库的干滩长度。该方法具有适应性强,监测准确,费用低、操作与维护简单、抗雷电能力强等优点,为干滩长度在线监测新方法的探索提供了参考。