非常规突发事件应急指挥组织结构研究

针对目前我国非常规突发事件应急响应过程中存在组织成员职责不明、关系不顺,难以实现快速联动和协同配合的问题,依据我国应急管理规章制度,以开放理性系统视角分析应急指挥组织结构(ECOS)的特点,基于组织理论提出契合行政级别的、具有闭环反馈的ECOS。以2010年夏三峡区域遭遇长江流域全流域性洪水为背景,基于提出的组织结构对三峡水库防洪应急指挥组织进行规范设置。研究结果表明,ECOS中各级政府应急部门采用官僚结构,现场指挥部采用项目小组结构,会商小组采用任务小组结构,整体构成矩阵结构。在稳定、理性、规范、高效的基础上,更具弹性和灵活性。这种刚性和柔性复合的、有层次和权威的、开放和权变的ECOS更适合我国国情以应对非常规突发事件。     

基于计划行为理论的矿工故意违章行为意向研究

为进一步解释和预测矿工故意违章行为意向,寻求可能的干预对策,以计划行为理论(TPB)为基本的理论构架,加入过去行为和示范性规范2个变量,构建了矿工故意违章行为意向假设模型。采取分层随机抽样方法,对412名矿工进行问卷调查,并借助结构方程建模技术对提出的假设模型进行了验证。研究表明:违章态度、知觉行为控制、示范性规范均对故意违章行为意向有显著的正向影响;主观规范对违章行为意向没有显著的直接影响;主观规范和过去行为通过违章态度间接正向影响违章行为意向。违章态度和示范性规范对故意违章行为意向的整体影响系数比较高,转变违章态度以及发挥群体其他成员遵章行为的示范性是降低故意违章行为意向的重要途径。     

中国湿地生态补偿的利益博弈分析

我国采取了一系列加强湿地生态环境保护的措施,推进了湿地生态状况的改善.但在实践过程中,生态保护仍存在着结构性的政策缺位,湿地生态补偿作为调整损害与保护生态环境主体间利益关系的一种制度安排,是保护生态环境的有效措施.从博弈论的角度出发,分析湿地生态补偿的利益相关者,通过建立湿地生态补偿主体和客体的博弈模型,得出湿地生态补偿主体、客体的纳什均衡策略,并提出针对性的建议.     

基于IPA理论的会展旅游目的地形象研究——以苏州市为例

在分析会展旅游目的地形象内涵与构成要素的基础上,以苏州为例,通过实地调研与访谈获取数据,并根据IPA理论分析苏州会展旅游目的地形象的基本特点,提出城市会展旅游目的地形象的提升策略,以期为同类型城市发展会展旅游提供借鉴与参考.     

环境监管失职罪的正确认定

结合真实案例探讨了环境监管失职罪的两个难点问题,主张运用监督过失理论认定监督人的预见范围,运用偶然因果关系的理论分析监督人的失职行为与危害结果之间的因果关系。     

A test of stress theory: relief workers in refugee camps

The purpose of this paper is to apply a stress model drawn from the literature to the relief and social service workers who have been active in refugee camps for a prolonged period of time. Working in difficult environments, social service workers deliver essential services to refugee populations around the world. A model of four work-stress determinants--tasks, management, appreciation and collaboration--was tested on 274 social workers in five regions of the Middle East (Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the occupied Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank). Statistical fit indices were adequate but two relationships were statistically insignificant. The collaboration variable was dropped to create a modified model with tasks indirectly and management and appreciation directly affecting work-related stress. The five direct relationships and two indirect relationships of this modified model are consistent with stress theory, and all relationships--direct and indirect--are statistically significant.     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

集装箱岸桥安全操作中信息处理建模及分析

为研究集装箱岸桥(QC)装卸作业安全操作机理,利用信息论的理论和方法对岸桥信息处理与传递进行建模和计算。首先总结集装箱装卸作业流程的11个作业环节,以人脑为信道,利用通信系统模型建立岸桥司机装卸作业各环节的信息传输转换模型。基于甘特图思想,建立整个装卸作业流程的刺激-反应流程图;并计算作为刺激的各信息源事件的信息量I(xi),信源熵H(X)和信息传递量HT。根据描述性模型和定量计算结果,对各作业环节提出有针对性的事故预防措施。