Safety evaluation of major hazard installations based on regional disaster system theory

Major accidents have catastrophic effects on humans and all of society. To prevent the occurrence of major accidents, it is essential to strengthen the management of major hazard installations. Generally, effective identification and reasonable evaluation of major hazard installations are the basic steps in safety management. At present, the evaluation methods for major hazard installations mainly focus on consequence analysis and probabilistic analysis without considering the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies. Therefore, the proposed method will introduce regional disaster system theory and comprehensively analyze hazard-formative factors, the hazard-formative environment and hazard-affected bodies to achieve a more complete and effective assessment of major hazard installations. Hazard-formative factors are evaluated based on the rapid ranking method, hazard-formative environments are evaluated based on Bayesian networks, and hazard-affected bodies are evaluated based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. A tank group and a chemical industrial park are used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the new method.     

基于空位溶液与DA理论的多组分气体吸附方法及验证*

为准确预测煤层气中多组分气体的吸附性能,将空位溶液与Dubinbin-Astakhov（DA）理论相结合,提出1种适用于煤层气吸附系统的多组分混合吸附模型。在模型中,吸附体系被视为气体与假设的“空位溶质”的多元混合物,吸附体系视为气相和吸附相空位溶质之间的平衡。结果表明:根据单组分气体吸附等温线,采用D-A方程计算分析了生成二元（吸附质+空位）混合物中纯组分气体的活度系数,并优化吸附参数;模型能够根据在单一温度下收集的纯组分吸附数据预测不同温度下的多组分气体吸附;模型计算结果与实测结果吻合良好,误差在10%以内,充分说明模型是切实可靠的。     

基于人误系统复合状态(MSHES)的人误防范理论研究

评析国内外以第一代人因可靠性分析(静态)、第二代人因可靠性分析(动态)为主体形成的人误防范理论和方法;针对目前不能量化人的生理、认知、心理等相关非结构性和非确定性参数和数据的"瓶颈",建立基于人-机-环系统业务流程的人误系统复合状态(Multiplex State ofHumanErrors System,MSHES)结构模型;探求运用粗糙集数据挖掘,对资深专业人员的经验规则信息、人因事故或事件分析的信息,挖掘人因层次结构中的根因与人误层次结构中的差错之间的关联关系,构建基于规则的人误防范专家系统结构模型;探究人的风险性评估和人误防范理论。     

基于蝴蝶型突变理论的安全生产保障系统分析和探讨

利用突变理论探讨事故致因模型,揭示事故致因的基本要素及其内在联系,对构成的要素进行抽象化,将对众多复杂企业的不安全因素进一步归纳为"人-机-环境-管理"安全生产保障系统,分析建立该系统的必要性,在突变理论的蝴蝶型与该系统结合性的基础上,探讨和建立安全决策和安全对策模型,将企业的安全生产危险程度分为理想的安全区域、危险区域、相对的安全区域。提出了危险程度和安全状况改进的数学模型,蝴蝶型突变理论能够揭示企业的安全状况。     

时间限定条件下突发事故资源调度方案

面对数量较多需要及时处理的突发事故,为了满足最短应急时间限制,最低应急资源数和最少的出救点等目标,在事故应急方案选择时给出一个反映决策者对时间和费用偏好的折中方案十分必要.从实际应用出发,运用模糊优化方法研究时间与资源限制条件下的多出救点组合模型求解问题.给出了限制期条件下,应急时间最短的资源调度方法以及限制期条件下出救点数目最少的应急模型,从理论上证明了模型求解方法的正确性.在给定限制期条件下,救援网络中最优路线的求解,即通过分析得出超时风险最小的出救路径,并求出了应急路径的可信度.通过算例说明该计算方法的具体应用,为突发事故处理资源调度的智能化提供参考.     

CSR codes and the principal-agent problem in supply chains: four case studies

The benefits of corporate social responsibility (CSR) affect the entire supply chains a firm participates in. However, not every firm is in a position to force the implementation of CSR in its supply chains as some, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), lack the necessary power. Chain directors can implement it acting as a principal, whereas the other chain members can act as agents.In the principal-agent framework, two main problems occur due to information asymmetry: adverse selection and moral hazard. This paper examines how a code of conduct (i.e. Social Accountability 8000) can help address the principal-agent problem, for SMEs, between chain directors and partners. The research method involves four case studies on CSR practices as implemented by Italian and Dutch SMEs within their supply chains.     

A rough set-based quality function deployment (QFD) approach for environmental performance evaluation: a case of offshore oil and gas operations

Activities in offshore oil and gas (OOG) that cause environmental impacts can be systematically managed through an environmental management system (EMS). Environmental performance evaluation (EPE) is an essential part of an EMS. However, previous studies on EPE indicate that existing lists of indicators little insight into how indicators are modified to more accurately assess environmental performance.In this paper, a way is proposed to identify and define specific environmental performance indicators on a case-by-case basis, which consists of five steps: (1) describing environmental requirements; (2) determining favourable outcomes corresponding to the requirements; (3) identifying required activities or issues to achieve the outcomes; (4) searching for proper measures of the activities or issues; and (5) generating a list of key indicators. Based on these steps, a quality function deployment (QFD) approach is developed to determine key indicators and evaluate environmental performance. To handle uncertainties in QFD, the decision makers’ evaluations are quantified through rough numbers using the concept of rough sets. The outputs of the proposed approach are different environmental performance indices. Using these indices, decision makers can easily determine whether an improved performance has been achieved through an EMS. The proposed approach is transparent and promising for use as a unified tool for EPE. An application of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a numerical example.     

Consumer reflections on the usage of plastic bags to parcel hot edible items: an empirical study in Malaysia

The packaging industry offers a wide range of pouching products to their clients in the food and beverage industries, healthcare industries and households as well. It is observed that pouching products are widely used and seemingly making them indispensable. Such practices are commonly found in Malaysia especially to parcel hot or cold food. The use of pouches raises two concerns namely solid waste disposal and food safety. The present study found more than 62% of the consumers purchase hot edible items in plastic bags daily or weekly because of its cost effectiveness and storage convenience. Consumers apparently are unperturbed by public campaigns against the use of plastic bags and neither do government regulations have any influence to reduce the use of plastic bags to parcel hot edible items. On the other hand, consumers are optimistic that the environmental and health hazards from the use of plastic bags to store hot edible items would only see a positive impact in the future.     

各向异性介质圆柱的散射特性研究

利用电磁场的多尺度理论,将各向异性介质重构为各向同性介质,首次得到了各向异性介质圆柱体散射场和散射宽度的解析表达式,并对其有效性进行了理论验证;研究了介电常数张量等因素对散射宽度的影响;仿真结果表明,各向异性介质圆柱体的前向散射及其与入射波垂直的方向散射较强,极化方向上的介电常数对散射有着较大的影响,分析了其产生的物理...     

Judgement days: moral attitudes in the wake of local disasters

The deaths and destruction stemming from a disaster are traumatic enough to implicate victims' beliefs not only about disasters themselves but also about other social and political concerns. In particular, disasters are associated with the scapegoating of out‐groups, suggesting that even deep‐rooted moral concerns may shift, at least temporarily, after disasters. This study uses exposure to local natural disaster fatalities to examine moral judgements regarding gays¹ in United States surveys from 1984–98. Survey respondents whose county has suffered a disaster feel appreciably more negatively towards gays, even though most of the disasters in this data set are relatively small and local. The increased antipathy towards gays dissipates within months, and is most marked among those who had, before the disaster, considered themselves more religious. These results raise the possibility that some groups, especially those already marginalised by society, may suffer in a backlash in the wake of a natural disaster.