Modeling postfire conifer mortality for long-range planning

A model is presented for predicting mortality of conifers after wildfire. The model requires stand data inputs and is linked with a mathematical fire behavior model that calculates fireline intensity. Fraction of crown volume killed is calculated for each species in a stand based on mensurational data. Duration of lethal heat at the base of trees is calculated from fuel consumption and burning time values. Fraction of crown volume killed and the ratio of critical time for cambial kill to duration of lethal heat are independent variables in a function that calculates probability of mortality. The model produces reasonable estimates of stand mortality for fire and site characteristics found in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. It has a broad resolution appropriate for use in fire management planning and has potential applications for coniferous forests throughout the United States.     

Economic Incentives to Conserve Wildlife on Private Lands: Analysis and Policy

Some believe that provision of private property rights in wildlife on private land provides a powerful economic incentive for nature conservation because it enables property owners to market such wildlife or its attributes. If such marketing is profitable, private landholders will conserve the wildlife concerned and its required habitat. But land is not always most profitably used for exploitation of wildlife, and many economic values of wildlife (such as non-use economic values) cannot be marketed. The mobility of some wildlife adds to the limitations of the private-property approach. While some species may be conserved by this approach, it is suboptimal as a single policy approach to nature conservation. Nevertheless, it is being experimented with, in the Northern Territory of Australia where landholders had a possibility of harvesting on their properties a quota of eggs and chicks of red-tailed black cockatoos for commercial sale. This scheme was expected to provide an incentive to private landholders to retain hollow trees essential for the nesting of these birds but failed. This case and others are analysed. Despite private-property failures, the long-term survival of some wildlife species depends on their ability to use private lands without severe harassment, either for their migration or to supplement their available resources, for example, the Asian elephant. Nature conservation on private land is often a useful, if not essential, supplement to conservation on public lands. Community and public incentives for such conservation are outlined.     

Detecting Population Declines over Large Areas with Presence-Absence, Time-to-Encounter, and Count Survey Methods

Abstract:  Ecologists often discount presence-absence surveys as a poor way to gain insight into population dynamics, in part because these surveys are not amenable to many standard statistical tests. Still, presence-absence surveys are sometimes the only feasible alternative for monitoring large areas when funds are limited, especially for sparse or difficult-to-detect species. I undertook a detailed simulation study to compare the power of presence-absence, count, and time-to-encounter surveys to detect regional declines in a population. I used a modeling approach that simulates both population numbers and the monitoring process, accounting for observation and other measurement errors. In gauging the efficacy of presence-absence surveys versus other approaches, I varied the number of survey sites, the spatial variation in encounter rate, the mean encounter rate, and the type of population loss. My results showed that presence-absence data can be as or more powerful than count data in many cases. Quantitative guidelines for choosing between presence-absence surveys and count surveys depend on the biological and logistical constraints governing a conservation monitoring situation. Generally, presence-absence surveys work best when there is little variability in abundance among the survey sites, the organism is rare, and the species is difficult to detect so that the time spent getting to each survey site is less than or equal to the time spent surveying each site. Count surveys work best otherwise. I present a case study with count data on the Northern Flicker ( Colaptes auratus ) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to illustrate how the method might be used with field-survey data. The case study demonstrates that a count survey would be the most cost-effective design but would entail reduction in the number of sites. If this site reduction is not desirable, a presence-absence survey would be the most cost-effective survey.     

藏北高原草地资源合理利用

藏北高原面积60万km₂,海拔4400m以上 ,气候寒冷干旱 ,是青藏高原内生态环境最酷劣的自然地域 ,大部分为无人区。境内55 %的土地为可利用的草地 ,是西藏最大的牧区 ,其绝大部分是由紫花针茅(Stipapurpurea)及青藏苔草(Carexmoorcroftii)等组成的高寒草原与高寒荒漠草原 ,虽然紫花针茅草原是当地藏绵羊的较适宜生态地域 ,但其鲜草产量不足800kg/hm₂,仅在6～9月能利用 ,加上草地土壤富含砂砾 ,抗侵蚀能力弱 ,所以草地生态较脆弱。目前已有1/3的草地受沙化和侵蚀的威协 ,4 %的草地处于过牧退化状况。所以保护草地 ,维持其生态稳定乃是开发藏北高原草地资源的重要原则 ,故对高寒荒漠草原与已沙化的高寒草原须禁牧 ;大部分高寒草原的放牧强度须控制和适度 ,以求永续地利用和获得良好的经济-生态效益。     

传统平原农区乡村多元分化与新型城乡形态建设路径研究

构建新型城乡形态是推进城乡融合的重要着力点。基于产业结构专门化水平和乡村性指数的定量测度,对苏北地区县域乡村类型及差异化城乡形态建设路径进行了探索。结果表明:苏北地区农业主导型、工业主导型、商旅服务型和均衡发展型县域分别占12%、16%、12%和60%;弱乡村性县域呈分散组团分布,中等乡村性县域沿淮河生态经济走廊呈东西轴向延伸,强乡村性县域边缘性特征明显。据此,从现代农业发展、新型工业支撑、生态绿色创新、三产融合互动等方面提出新型城乡形态建设路径。     

粤北地区芳香植物资源及其综合利用对策

粤北地区芳香植物资源丰富.经调查统计,该地区的芳香种子植物有105科240属470种(含种以下等级),分别占该地区所有种子植物科、属、种的54.6%、28.9%、20%.区系成分分析结果显示,该地区芳香植物以热带亚热带成分为主,多种成分并存;优势科较显著,如樟科、芸香科、菊科、伞形科、木兰科、金缕梅科等.作者认为应采取一系列有效措施,对本地区芳香植物资源进行综合开发利用.     

Are bison exotic in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve?

The effect of past distributions of animal populations now extinct in an area from unknown causes is considered relative to their status as exotic or native in national parks. The example is the bison (Bisonbison) on the Copper and Chitina river drainages in Alaska in the USA which was introduced prior to establishment of Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve. The fossil record suggests that bison were present as recently as 500 years ago in Alaska. The policy of the US National Park Service to maintain natural ecosystems and restrict or eliminate exotic species raises the issue of whether this species should be treated as exotic or native.