Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know?

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Ni?o and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply.     

Plains cottonwood's last stand: can it survive invasion of Russian olive onto the Milk River, Montana floodplain?

Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia L.) was introduced in 1950 onto one site on the Milk River floodplain, northern Montana, 10 km downstream from the Canada/United States border. To analyze dispersal of Russian olive from the point source between 1950 and 1999, we compared distribution, numbers, size structure, and mortality of Russian olive and plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides Marsh:) on an unregulated reach of the Milk River floodplain in southeastern Alberta and north-central Montana. Within 50 years, Russian olive in this reach has moved upriver into Alberta and downriver to the Fresno Reservoir. It is now present on 69 of the 74 meander lobes sampled, comprising 34%, 62%, and 61% of all Russian olive and plains cottonwood seedlings, saplings, and trees, respectively. On some meander lobes, Russian olive has colonized similar elevations on the floodplain as plains cottonwood and is oriented in rows paralleling the river channel, suggesting that recruitment may be related to river processes. Breakup ice had killed 400 Russian olive saplings and trees and damaged >1000 others on 30 of the meander lobes in 1996. Nevertheless, Russian olive now outnumbers cottonwood on many sites on the Milk River floodplain because its seeds can be dispersed by wildlife (particularly birds) and probably by flood water and ice rafts; seeds are viable for up to 3 years and germination can take place on bare and well-vegetated soils; and saplings and trees are less palatable to livestock and beaver than plains cottonwood. Without control, Russian olive could be locally dominant on the Milk River floodplain in all age classes within 10 years and replace plains cottonwood within this century.     

北太平洋地区沙尘沉降与海洋生物兴衰的关系

通过对2001年4月中亚强沙尘暴过程在中国、韩国、日本和北美大陆地面PM10观测结果进行统计分析,推算出了北太平洋PAPA地区的沙尘沉降通量,结合同期PAPA地区的海洋表层有机碳和叶绿素观测结果,探讨了北太平洋沙尘与海洋生物兴衰的关系.结果表明,本次强沙尘暴过程可以给PAPA地区带去大约3.1～5.8μg/m³的风成Fe元素,它激发了海洋生物泵,引起海洋浮游植物的快速繁盛.     

Mass balanced and dynamic simulations of trophic models of kelp ecosystems near the Mejillones Peninsula of northern Chile (SE Pacific): Comparative network structure and assessment of harvest strategies

Mass balanced trophic models for kelp ecosystems which include subsystems dominated by Macrocystis integrifolia, Lessonia trabeculata and areas of barren ground (BG) were constructed for subtidal areas near the Mejillones Peninsula (SE Pacific), Chile. Information on biomass, P/B ratios, catches, food spectrum, consumption and dynamics of commercial and non-commercial populations was obtained and examined using Ecopath with Ecosim software analyses. The biomass of blades of L. trabeculata and M. integrifolia represented the compartments most relevant to the subsystems studied. Within the herbivores, the sea urchin Tetrapigus niger was dominant, followed by the snails Turritella sp. and Tegula sp. The fishes Pinguipes chilensis and Cheilodactylus variegatus were the dominant predators, followed by the asteroids Heliaster helianthus and Meyenaster gelatinosus. The highest system throughput (72,512 g wet weight m⁻² year⁻¹) was calculated for the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia. The mean trophic level of the catch ranged from 1.1 (subsystem dominated by L. trabeculata) to 1.3 (subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia) to 3.2 (barren ground subsystem), showing that harvesting in each system was concentrated either on primary producers (blades of kelp species) or top predator fishes. Although the values for the Relative Ascendency (A/C) fluctuated from 36.5 to 45%, suggesting that all the systems were immature, the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia emerged as the least resistant to external disturbances (e.g. fisheries). This result agreed with the high value of the system recovery time (SRT) for the M. integrifolia subsystem as a response to combined fisheries scenarios. The results obtained using mixed trophic impact (MTI) and Ecosim [increasing the fishing mortality F_i by 4×] showed that in most of the cases the predictions had the same qualitative tendencies. One of the most important results obtained in this study was that exploitation of kelp blades as an alternative strategy to harvesting the whole plants appeared to be ecologically sustainable, since harvesting the blades propagated only small effects on the entire subsystem. The fish P. chilensis may be considered as a top predator species with a strong top-down control since an increase in its fishing mortality in the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia produced a high SRT value, and the F_MSY was less than the originally entered F_i in Ecopath. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that the trophic mass balanced models and simulated management scenarios offered good possibilities for the planning of interventions and manipulations or the planning of more sustainable management strategies in highly disturbed natural systems.     

Sources and distribution of sedimentary organic matter along the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

In this study, lignin-derived phenols were used to determine the sources and distribution of sedimentary organic matter along the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean. The lignin parameter syringyl/vanillyl (S/V) and cinnamyl/vanillyl (C/V) ratios are used to indicate vegetation sources; and the ratios of vanillic acid/vanillin, (Ad/Al)v and syringic acid/syringaldehyde, (Ad/Al)s are used as indicators of lignin diagenesis. Results showed the predominance of woody gymnosperm signal at the easternmost location in the northern Bering Sea, a mixture of refractory non-woody angiosperm and fresher gymnosperm tissues in the Chukchi Sea, and signal of fresher woody gymnosperm tissues in the northernmost locations in the Chukchi Sea. The lignin materials showed gradual increase in decomposition stage during transport along the northern Bering Sea. Hydrodynamic sorting process, which is the retention of coarser materials nearshore and transportation of finer particles farther offshore, most probably occurred along the east coast of the northern Bering Sea. In Chukchi Sea, the non-woody angiosperm tissues could have originated from the Canadian Arctic and gymnosperm tissues could be from the Russian Arctic side. The fresher materials in the northernmost Chukchi Sea could have been transported here via the ice-rafting process. Detection of fresh lignin materials and the occurrence of lignin decomposition mean that this region could be sensitive to the impact of climate change.     

A simple plankton model for the Oregon upwelling ecosystem: Sensitivity and validation against time-series ocean data

Simple plankton models serve as useful platforms for testing our understanding of the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics. A simple, one-dimensional plankton model was developed to describe the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton size-classes, meso-zooplankton, and detritus in the Oregon upwelling ecosystem. Computational simplicity was maintained by linking the biological model to a one-dimensional, cross-shelf physical model driven by the daily coastal upwelling index. The model sacrificed resolution of regional-scale and along-shore (north to south) processes and assumed that seasonal productivity is primarily driven by local cross-shelf Ekman transport of surface waters and upwelling of nutrient-rich water from depth.Our goals were to see how well a simple plankton model could capture the general temporal and spatial dynamics of the system, test system sensitivity to alternate parameter set values, and observe system response to the effective scale of potential retention mechanisms. Model performance across the central Oregon shelf was evaluated against two years (2000-2001) of chlorophyll and copepod time-series observations. While the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass was close in scale to the observed copepod biomass, phytoplankton was overestimated relative to that inferred from the observed surface chlorophyll concentration. Inshore, the system was most sensitive to the nutrient uptake kinetics of diatom-size phytoplankton and to the functional grazing response of meso-zooplankton. Meso-zooplankton was more sensitive to alternate parameter values than was phytoplankton. Reduction of meso-zooplankton cross-shelf advection rates (crudely representing behavioral retention mechanisms) reduced the scale of model error relative to the observed seasonal mean inshore copepod biomass but had little effect of the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass offshore nor upon phytoplankton biomass across the entire shelf.     

Climate change,adaptive capacity and policy direction in the Canadian North: Can we learn anything from the collapse of the east coast cod fishery?

Scientific evidence gathered over the past five years suggests that northern Canada and the Arctic have undergone, and are undergoing, formidable environmental changes linked to global climate change. Environmental change in the north is expected to persist and intensify over the course of the next century. When large-scale environmental changes take place, they inevitably affect people, especially when the cultures and livelihoods of those people depend on their relationship with the environment. Managing the local impacts of these changes is a matter of adaptation. This paper discusses some of the policy implications of adaptation––government interventions aiming to build communities’ and regions’ capacities to adapt to environmental changes. Three arguments for adaptive capacity building interventions in the north are discussed, and these arguments are augmented by a comparative review of government reactions to the collapse of the cod fishery in Atlantic Canada. Reactive and proactive policy approaches are discussed, and it is suggested from the comparison that proactive approaches to intervention are desirable for building adaptive capacity.

近年渤海与黄海北部沿岸底栖贝类体内微污染物的分布特征

根据近几年的海洋常规监测数据,确定渤海及黄海北部沿岸底柄贝类体内典型微污染物的含量及其空间分布.结果表明,在36%以上的站点中,贝类体内石油烃含量超过国家海洋生物质量第1类标准(15μg/g,湿重,下同),尤其是大连湾和河北新村附近海域贝类体内含量甚至高出第Ⅲ类标准(80μg/g,以湿重计),并且,近年来大部分海域贻贝...     

Trends in precipitation chemistry in Alaska, 1980–1998

Nineteen years (1980–1998) of precipitation chemistry data from a site in Alaska are examined for trends using a least squares general linear model. The annual concentrations of SO^2– ₄ show a significant decreasing trend at 0.001 level and the annual change in concentration is —0.012mg 1^–1 yr^–1. The annual concentrations of NO ^– ₃ show an increasing tendency non‐significant. The annual base cation concentrations show a clear significant decreasing trend at 0.001 level and the decrease is —0.009mg 1^–1 yr^–1. Ca²⁺ concentrations exhibit a significant decreasing trend at 0.001 level and the annual change of concentration is —0.003 mg 1^–1 yr^–1. Mg²⁺ and Na⁺ concentrations show a significant decreasing trend at 0.01 level and the annual change is —0.001 mg1^–1 yr^–1 for Mg²⁺ and —0.004 mg1^–1 yr^–1 for Na⁺. K⁺ concentrations are characterised by a decreasing trend, significant at 0.05 level. K⁺ concentrations have decreased —0.002mg1^–1 yr^–1. The strongest rates of concentration decline for base cations, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺ and Na⁺ occurred in fall and winter season. The annual values of pH show a decreasing trend non‐significant. The values of pH oscillate between 5.1 and 5.6 during the period considered.     

Simulating future land use and ecosystem services in Northern Thailand

Enhancing ecosystem services is important as it provides foundation for the wellbeing of people. This paper presents the future land use simulation for enhancing ecosystem services using CLUMondo dynamic spatial model. The land use change was assessed from 1989 to 2013 in Wang Thong watershed of Northern Thailand using GIS and a set of ecosystem services was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Future land uses until 2030 were projected for three policy scenarios, namely business-as-usual, integrated land use development, and enhancing environmental services with different levels of emphasis on ecosystem services. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2013, whereas in integrated land use development scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 5% compared to base year due to anticipated effective protection of remaining forests in all existing and proposed protected areas of the study area. In enhancing environmental services scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 15%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem services in future.