油库火灾事故环境影响分析

针对火灾事故发生时产生的有毒烟气对周围环境的影响进行了预测分析,对事故处理过程中的伴生/次生污染和可能发生事故连锁效应的情况进行了分析评价。     

Synergies and trade‐offs in achieving global biodiversity targets

After their failure to achieve a significant reduction in the global rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, world governments adopted 20 new ambitious Aichi biodiversity targets to be met by 2020. Efforts to achieve one particular target can contribute to achieving others, but different targets may sometimes require conflicting solutions. Consequently, lack of strategic thinking might result, once again, in a failure to achieve global commitments to biodiversity conservation. We illustrate this dilemma by focusing on Aichi Target 11. This target requires an expansion of terrestrial protected area coverage, which could also contribute to reducing the loss of natural habitats (Target 5), reducing human‐induced species decline and extinction (Target 12), and maintaining global carbon stocks (Target 15). We considered the potential impact of expanding protected areas to mitigate global deforestation and the consequences for the distribution of suitable habitat for >10,000 species of forest vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and mammals). We first identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on remaining forests and then identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on forest vertebrates (considering aggregate suitable habitat for species). Expanding protected areas toward locations with the highest deforestation rates (Target 5) or the highest potential loss of aggregate species’ suitable habitat (Target 12) resulted in partially different protected area network configurations (overlapping with each other by about 73%). Moreover, the latter approach contributed to safeguarding about 30% more global carbon stocks than the former. Further investigation of synergies and trade‐offs between targets would shed light on these and other complex interactions, such as the interaction between reducing overexploitation of natural resources (Targets 6, 7), controlling invasive alien species (Target 9), and preventing extinctions of native species (Target 12). Synergies between targets must be identified and secured soon and trade‐offs must be minimized before the options for co‐benefits are reduced by human pressures.     

Steady states and sensitivities of commonly used pelagic ecosystem model components

Pelagic, coupled ocean circulation-ecosystem models, are widely used in climate research. These tools aim to quantify fluxes of nutrients and carbon in the ocean and are, increasingly, the base of future projections. For this purpose it is crucial to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainties. In contrast to physical models, the underlying equations for ecosystem models are derived from empirical relationships rather than based on first principles. This resulted in the development of a multitude of different ecosystem models - different in respect to both, underlying principles and complexity. Clearly, the question arises, to what extent the sensitivities of these models are comparable.This study focuses on the intrinsic dynamics of some widely used, simple (containing 2-3 prognostic variables) ecosystem models in a 0-D framework (i.e., comprising only the well-mixed oceanic surface layer). A suite of differing model approaches is tuned such that their behavior is similar. The setup resembles the well-mixed oceanic surface layer in the Baltic proper. It is illustrated that strong differences between the model approaches appear due to exemplary, anticipated changes in the external nutrient and light conditions. Herewith, we demonstrate the well-known, but rarely demonstrated fact that, apparent consistency between modeled prognostic variables with today's data bases is not necessarily a good measure of forecast skill. The causes which lead to the different sensitivities are illustrated by considering the steady state solutions. It is pointed out, that apparently small changes in the model formulations can result in very different dynamical behavior and an enormous spread between the model approaches, despite the feasibility to tune a common behavior in a limited range of light and nutrient supply. In our examples, the sensitivity is mainly a function of the formulation of the loss rate of phytoplankton. It is thus, in particular, the formulation of highly unknown heteorotrophic processes that determines the model sensitivity.     

基于洪涝灾害控制目标的河网结构-调蓄能力情景模拟研究

采用SOBEK软件平台构建平原河网模型,模拟不同情景下河网结构变化对河网削减洪峰能力的影响,尝试找到能够有效调控洪峰的河面率范围和河网结构参数。研究表明,在不改变河面率的情境下,支流的交汇角度小,交汇点在干流上游时河网削减洪峰能力相对较大;在提高河面率的情境下:随河流弯曲度增大调蓄能力增大,当弯曲度为2.8时河流单位面积削减洪峰的能力达到峰值;随河面率增大河网削减洪峰能力增强,但单位河面积削峰效率存在峰值,模拟得出河面率为3%～5%时,单位河面积增量的削峰效率最强;增加支流面积比增大干流面积能更有效地改善河网的调蓄功能。     

基于阻尼器反力墙体系的特大型LNG储罐控制研究

特大型液化天然气(LNG)储罐的固有频率通常介于2～10Hz之间,处于大部分地震运动的频率范围之内.在过去的几十年中,许多事故已经证明,储罐在地震作用下很容易遭破坏.使用隔震支座来减少储罐的地震作用已经被证明是非常有效的,但对于特大型LNG储罐,其连接组件对隔震层层问位移有严格限制,尤其是在软土场地中,桩水平抗力与隔震...     

石油化工储存装置定量风险评价方法研究

提出通过基础失效概率数据库、事故树分析、事件树分析3种方式来确定重大事故的发生概率.阐述了外界气象条件和人员分布情况对风险的影响和确定方法,给出了利用区域网格方式计算装置在平面某点的个人风险叠加模型和社会风险计算方法.最后,研制开发了石油化工储存装置定量风险评价软件,利用该软件计算了某化工厂4个储存装置所产生的个人风险...     

直立型ESFR喷头货架实体火试验研究

为研究直立型ESFR喷头对高架仓库的保护性能以及配水支管对灭火性能的影响,将K202直立型ESFR喷头安装在DN50的配水支管上,在10.5 m净空高度下分别开展5层和6层货架的实体火试验,测量喷头开启时间、开启数量、吊顶下温度、点火位置正上方钢梁温度及货品烧损量等试验参数。结果表明:不超过3只的ESFR喷头会在火灾初期迅速启动,喷头启动后,火势得到快速抑制,整个试验过程中火均未蔓延至邻排货架。K202直立型ESFR喷头能有效保护储物为箱装不发泡塑料的高架仓库,外径不超过60 mm的配水支管或类似的障碍物对直立型ESFR喷头灭火性能无明显影响。     

盐岩地下储气库泄漏事故后果评价模型研究进展

利用盐岩地层建设地下油气储库群已成为各国发展能源储备的重要方向,然而关于储库区安全防护的研究至今仍处于探索阶段。考虑到盐岩储气库泄漏事故与储(输)气设施(管道)事故灾害作用相近,总结评述近几十年来国内外学者在储(输)气设施(管道)泄漏事故后果评价方面的研究成果及其存在的不足,并提出盐岩地下储气库泄漏事故安全评价需重点研究的问题。从理论、试验和数值模拟3个方面,对可燃气体火灾热辐射和蒸气云爆炸超压的后果评价模型研究现状进行系统总结,为盐岩地下储气库的安全防护研究提供思路。     

关于建立藻类自动检测、分类与存储系统的方法的研究

基于计算机视觉和模式识别理论,研究自动和便捷的的藻类检测分类系统,实现提高检测的准确性和工作效率,实现水生生物的自动检测、分类与存储。     

废胶粉改性沥青研究与应用现状

随着汽车工业的飞速发展,废旧轮胎已成为一大公害,废旧轮胎资源化利用是解决这一难题的有效途径之一。将废胶粉应用于改性沥青,既可利用废物优化沥青路面,又能减少环境污染。介绍国内外废胶粉改性沥青的应用现状,并对废胶粉改性沥青机理及性能影响因素进行了总结,重点分析了废胶粉改性沥青的储存稳定性问题及其解决办法,指出用废胶粉对沥青进行改性具有重要的理论和现实意义。