油气储运设施事故风险指数模糊逻辑评估方法

油气储运设施风险是其事故发生概率和事故后果的综合度量,而事故概率和后果的定量评估结果往往是具有不确定性的数据,以确定性风险评估准则为基础的传统风险矩阵法和风险值法显然难以评估油气储运设施风险。为此提出开展油气储运设施事故风险的模糊逻辑推理法,首先,对风险矩阵的概率语言等级和损失语言等级的边界进行定量划分;然后,建立油气储运设施风险矩阵模糊集和模糊逻辑推理规则;最后,通过风险模糊推理运算和模糊风险解模糊化以确定油气储运设施的风险水平。实例应用与分析表明,利用推荐方法可得到较为详尽的风险数据信息,不但风险指数更加清晰,而且其所属风险等级类别也更加明确,评估结果能更好地指导油气储运设施的风险管理。     

原油储罐硫化氢脱除实验及应用

采用循环气提法脱除原油储罐中的硫化氢以达到降低储罐内硫化氢浓度的目的。某联合站卸油台零位罐的实验结果表明:经过7h的实验,零位罐观察口硫化氢浓度可由484mg/m3降低至9mg/m3。文章主要介绍了循环气提法在轮三联合站卸油台零位罐的实验过程、除硫剂的筛选及在某联合站原油储罐的应用情况。实践证明该方法能够有效降低储罐内硫化氢浓度。     

"有序"开采:北方地区地下水资源利用中两难选择的途径

北方干旱、半干旱地区地下水超采严重，水资源供需矛盾突出。为探索一条地下水合理开发利用的途径．本文提出了“有序”开采的思路：在来来几十年内．政府部门应根据人口，经济发展规划提出地下水资源需求量的控制计划．并给下属各地区下达取水配额。使储存资源的消耗处于有计划和监控范围内。有序开采应分阶段实现：第一阶段应以抑侧超采量的过快增长为目标；第二阶段应以需水总量的下降为目标；第三阶段应实现总需水量低于地下水系统补给资源量，使数十年超采造成的储存资源亏空逐年得以偿还。“有序”开采应注意三点：①超采必须限制在有限时间内；②开采活动应在政府的严格控制之下。任何超过计划配额的取水行为都是不允许的；③开采量和总需水量的下降，必须以节水为前提。发达国家的需水量变化经历证明。通过“有序”开采实现北方地区地下水可持续利用是可行的．     

上海市污水治理二期工程上升管间距模型试验研究

以上海市污水治理二期工程物理模型试验数据为基础，通过量纲分析的方法得出了污水排放口上升布置多个喷口时污水场宽度与各影响因素之间的关系式，根据污水场宽度可以确定出上升管理论间距，为实际工程中扩散器长度的确定提供理论依据。     

危险化学品生产与储存场所的安全库容评价模型与方法研究

危险化学品生产与储存场所的危险化学品库容风险是反映危险化学品生产与储存场所安全与否的重要指标,为增加评估危险化学品库容量时的客观性、准确性,在统筹其3类主要事故模型的基础上,建立了危险化学品生产与储存场所的危险化学品库容风险当量评估模型。该模型以传统风险理论为载体,不仅对单一危险源的伤害风险进行计算,且对各种危险化学品的不同库容事故损失、发生概率、伤害风险做统一关联分析,以使危险化学品库存地的风险实现合理叠加。再根据相同区域风险值和当量的叠加,结合区域坐标、人员密度、风险界限,通过MATLAB仿真模拟,确定危险化学品生产与储存场所整体风险区域图,进而标出危险致命区域,计算库容临界量。     

固体发动机药柱应力应变仿真与试验验证研究

目的研究某导弹固体发动机药柱在不同环境温度下的性能演变规律。方法利用ABAQUS有限元分析软件,仿真计算了药柱在-40,20,50℃下的应力应变情况,在此基础上通过推进剂拉伸应力松弛试验对仿真结果进行验证分析。结果最大应力应变发生在头部人工脱粘层的根部,药柱内部沿径向越靠近内孔表面,应力应变的数值越大,沿药柱的轴向,内孔表面的最大应力应变发生在靠近药柱中间位置。结论线粘弹性本构关系模型在较低应变水平下可以很好地模拟出推进剂的力学行为,当应变水平在14.3%以下时,试验和仿真的相对误差能控制在10%以内。     

Fragility assessment of bottom plates in above ground storage tanks during flood events

This study aims to improve the fundamental understanding on the performance of bottom plates in above ground storage tanks (ASTs) during flood events. To this end, fragility models that estimate the probability of material yielding and rupture in the bottom plates were derived. A significant number of ASTs are located in coastal areas and are susceptible to hurricane hazards. Consequently, ASTs have suffered severe damage during past hurricanes resulting in spills with catastrophic environmental and social impacts. Therefore, several failure modes such as flotation, buckling, and sliding have been studied in past research. However, the literature lacks studies that consider the failure of bottom plate due to uplift pressure generated during floods and there are no design guidelines to address this issue. To address this gap, fragility functions that provide the probability of failure as a function of tank geometry, material properties, design parameters, and hazard conditions were developed herein. For this purpose, Latin Hypercube Sampling was performed to span the space of these parameters uniformly. For each parameter combination, maximum stresses in bottom plates were determined using analytical formulations for simply supported and clamped boundary conditions and were compared against two different failure thresholds. The results were used to develop a closed form fragility model using step wise logistic regression. Fragility functions were applied to four case study tanks. Sensitivity analysis were performed to understand the impacts of different probability density functions for various variables on the bottom plates’ fragility. The results provided several insights such as ASTs with larger diameter were vulnerable to bottom plate failure. Comparison with other failure modes revealed that the probability of bottom plate failure was higher than flotation failure for anchored ASTs with clamped boundary condition.     

Analysis of the chosen thermal and flammability parameters of dried sewage dust

The hazardous sludge disposal process in the form of landfills requires the determination inter alia of the flammable and explosion properties of dried sewage sludge dust, which has the ability to ignite and spontaneously combust when stored in silos. At a constant furnace surface temperature, the minimum ignition temperature of the sludge dust layer with a layer thickness of 5 mm is 270 °C, and for a layer thickness of 12.5 mm it is 250 °C. Two selected fire extinguishing powders for Class A, B, C and D fires were used in the study to determine the possibility of reducing the susceptibility of dried wastewater to ignition from heated surface, self-ignition and explosion parameters. The most effective extinguishing powder was ABC Favorit, which increased the value of the minimum ignition temperature of the layer (5 mm thick) to 360 °C and the spontaneous ignition temperature of the sludge with this powder increased by 22 °C at 169.6 cm³ in comparison to the sludge without extinguishing powder, respectively. The lowest self-ignition temperature of 136 °C was recorded for the largest tested volume (169.6 cm³) for dried sewage dust without any fire extinguishing powders. The biggest values of p_max and (dp/dt)_max dried sewage dust were recorded 4.8 bar and 113 bar/s respectively. By analysing the obtained test results, it can be assumed that dried sewage dust is a combustible material with properties similar to biomass.     

中国第四次北极科考航线上黑碳和臭氧的变化特征

利用2010年7月1日至9月20日中国第四次北极科学考察的大气成分在线观测资料,对考察航线上黑碳气溶胶(BC)、臭氧(O3)和B波段紫外辐射(UVB)的分布特征进行了分析.结果显示,这些要素总体上随纬度的增加而递减,其最大值出现在我国东部海域,最低值出现在北冰洋.进入白令海后,BC浓度变化相对平稳,白令海和北冰洋的BC平均浓度分别为15.6ng·m-3和10.5ng·m-3.白令海的平均O3体积分数比北冰洋高,分别为18.9×10-9和15.7×10-9.但在75°N以北海区O3体积分数有所升高,在80°N以北达到17.0×10-9,这一现象可能与海冰密集度和冰上光化学过程有关.UVB辐照度在中低纬地区有显著的日变化,由于在北冰洋航行期间处于极昼期,其变化幅度较小.UVB受天气影响明显,尤其是遇上气旋的阴雨天气,UVB强度较弱.