PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS IN THE USE OF STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic dynamic programming model is applied to a small hydroelectric system. The variation in number of stage iterations and the computer time required to reach steady state conditions with changes in the number of storage states is investigated. The increase in computer time required to develop the storage probability distributions with increase in the number of storage states is reviewed. It is found that for an average of seven inflow states, the largest number of storage states for which it is computationally feasible to develop the storage probability distributions is nine. It is shown that use of the dynamic program results based on a small number of storage states results in unrealistically skewed storage probability distributions. These skewed distributions are attributed to “trapping” states at the low end of the storage range.     

三元组分图在储罐退役惰性化过程设计中的应用

储罐退役之前,一般要进行惰化处理,以降低可燃气体浓度,避免形成爆炸性混合气体。根据三元组分图,可以方便、直观地设计惰化施工的方案,包括惰化操作的程序设计和危险气体控制目标浓度的确定。本文从理论上研究了在储罐退役惰性化过程设计时,如何用三元组分图表示爆炸极限、最小含氧浓度以及在储罐稀释惰性化过程中气体组成的变化轨迹。提出了两套惰化设计方案,在分析比较的基础上,确定了储罐退役惰化时的最安全实施方案。     

Coalbed methane reservoir data and simulator parameter uncertainty modelling for CO2 storage performance assessment

Laboratory studies and a number of field pilots have demonstrated that CO₂ injection into coal seams has the potential to enhance coalbed methane (CBM) recovery with the added advantage that most of the injected CO₂ can be stored permanently in coal. The concept of storing CO₂ in geologic formations as a safe and effective greenhouse gas mitigation option requires public and regulatory acceptance. In this context it is important to develop a good understanding of the reservoir performance, uncertainties and the risks that are associated with geological storage. The paper presented refers to the sources of uncertainty involved in CO₂ storage performance assessment in coalbed methane reservoirs and demonstrates their significance using extensive digital well log data representing the Manville coals in Alberta, Canada. The spatial variability of the reservoir properties was captured through geostatistical analysis, and sequential Gaussian simulations of these provided multiple realisations for the reservoir simulator inputs. A number of CO₂ injection scenarios with variable matrix swelling coefficients were evaluated using a 2D reservoir model and spatially distributed realisations of total net thickness and permeability.     

Time-lapse carbon dioxide monitoring with pulsed neutron logging

Elevated levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere have been linked to the rise in land and sea temperature [Climate Change, 2001. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Xiaosu, D. (Eds.), The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, UK, p. 944]. To demonstrate geological carbon sequestration as a mitigation technique, a carbon dioxide injection experiment was conducted in East Texas. The target – Frio formation – is a highly porous, permeable and unconsolidated sandstone. The specific interval is the Frio C sand, which originally was saturated with saline formation water. At the injection location, the Frio C sand dips 18° to the south. To monitor the injected CO₂ spreading in the formation, an old well from 1956 drilled into the deeper Yegua formation was selected as the observation well. The injection well was drilled at a distance of 100 ft downdip from the monitoring well. Several borehole measurement methods were available to monitor the CO₂ injection, but the most suitable technology was thought to be the pulsed neutron logging. This logging is used widely in cased hole, and the measured macroscopic thermal absorption cross-section (Σ) is sensitive to CO₂ saturation in high porosity saline water environments. Several log examples are given demonstrating successful the monitoring of the CO₂ plume moving through the two boreholes and the resulting saturation changes.     

冰川积雪融水补给为主河流水库蓄水期起始时间的判定

如何科学合理地确定水库蓄水期起始时间对保证水库正常运行、下游灌溉、供水、河道生态需水等方面有重要的作用,尤其是以冰川积雪融水补给为主的河流水库。而目前在实际水库运行中也没有一个较好的合理确定标准和方法,只能根据流域特性水库运行管理人员主观确定,受人为因素影响较大,增加了水库正常运行的不确定性,不能充分发挥水库各方面的效益。因此提出在以MOD IS积雪监测数据基础上结合零度层高度监测数据即雪线高度合理确定水库蓄水期起始时间的方法,更具有说服力及合理性,对水库运行管理提供了一定的指导依据,有利于当地水资源的合理利用,并通过实际应用说明方法是可行的。     

Water-saving irrigation of paddy field to reduce nutrient runoff

The purpose of this work is to study the effect of a type of water-saving irrigation (WSI) on nutrient runo of paddy field. The volume of surface drainage was maintained low by WSI. In particular, WSI e ectively reduced surface drainage in rain events. Model simulation indicated that net runo load of total nitrogen (TN) from the paddy field was increased by WSI. Meanwhile, net runo loads of total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) from the paddy field was decreased by WSI. Because ponding waters of the study fields were enriched with TP and TOC, WSI reduced runo of these nutrients by controlling the volume of surface drainage. WSI could be considered an e cient method for reducing runo loads and could conserve water quality in an agricultural watershed.     

Methane emissions during storage of di erent treatments from cattle manure in Tianjin

Many studies on methane emissions from animal manure have revealed that animal manure is a major source of methane emissions to the atmosphere that can have negative consequences for people, animals and environment. In general, the release of methane can be influenced by the type of feed taken by animals, temperature, manure characteristics and so on. This study aimed at quantifying and comparing methane release from dairy manure with di erent piling treatments. Four treatments were designed including manure piling height 30, 45, 60 cm and adding 6 cm manure every day until the piling height was 60 cm. Static chamber method and gas chromatography were adopted to measure the methane emissions from April to June in 2009. Methane emission rates of all four manure treatments were low in the first week and then increased sharply until reaching the peak values. Subsequently, all the methane emission rates decreased and fluctuated within the steady range till the end of the experiment. Wilcoxon nonparametric tests analysis indicated that methane emission rate was greatly influenced by manure piling height and manner. There were no significant relationships between methane emission rates and the temperatures of ambience and heap. However, regression analysis showed that the quadratic equations were found between emission rates of all treatments and the gas temperature in the barrels.     

TDE-85环氧/碳纤维复合材料热老化试验研究

采用动态热分析仪对TDE-85环氧/碳纤维复合材料进行测试,并在探索试验基础上,开展了一系列温度的热老化试验,选择弯曲强度作为TDE-85环氧/碳纤维材料的贮存寿命评定指标,通过对热老化试验后样品弯曲强度数据的统计分析,预测了其贮存寿命。     

浅议加油站清罐作业的HSE管理

介绍了加油站清罐作业的常见流程,以及清罐作业前的各项准备工作,探讨了加油站清罐作业过程的HSE管理措施及注意事项。     

某灵巧弹药红外敏感器部件贮存加速寿命试验应力的研究

对于结构复杂的新型弹药元件,难以通过传统的统计试验方法来验证其可靠性,而现阶段基于模型的加速寿命试验方法受到加速模型的限制,只适应于元器件级及材料级的传统弹药元件。在明确某灵巧弹药红外敏感器部件结构特征的基础上,以步进加速寿命试验理论与方法为依据,逐一对各组件进行分层次的贮存失效分析,归纳出贮存环境中导致红外敏感器部件失效的主要应力类型,并提出该部件可采取恒定湿度、步进温度的加速寿命试验方法进行可靠性验证。